The American Express: PGA Best Bets, Predictions, Past Results, and Course Info

The PGA Tour is back in the contiguous United States for this week's American Express at a three-course rotation in California.

Here's all you need to know.

All golf odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook and may change after this article is published.

The American Express Tournament Info

• Recent Winning Scores: -29, -27, -23, -23, -26
• Recent Cut Lines: -13, -10, -7, -4, -9
  • Note: This event uses a 54-hole cut to allow all golfers to play one round at each of the three courses. The final round will be played at the Stadium Course at PGA West.

PGA West (Stadium Course) Info

Data from GCSAA, PGA Tour, and data golf's course table unless otherwise noted.

• Par: 72
• Distance: 7,210 yards (a little short for a par 72)
• Average Fairway Width: 33.8 yards (average)
• Average Green Size: 7,000 square feet (large)
• Green Type: Poa overseed
• Stimpmeter: N/A

Jack Nicklaus Tournament Course Info

Data from GCSAA, PGA Tour, and data golf's course table unless otherwise noted.

• Par: 72
• Distance: 7,147 yards (short)
• Average Fairway Width: N/A (but average)
• Average Green Size: 5,500 square feet (a bit small)
• Green Type: Poa overseed
• Stimpmeter: N/A

La Quinta Country Club Course Info

Data from GCSAA, PGA Tour, and data golf's course table unless otherwise noted.

• Par: 72
• Distance: 7,060 yards (short)
• Average Fairway Width: N/A (but average)
• Average Green Size: 4,773 square feet (very small)
• Green Type: Poa overseed
• Stimpmeter: N/A

The American Express Event Key Stats

• Strokes Gained: Approach
• Birdie or Better Rate
• Strokes Gained: Putting
• Strokes Gained: Off the Tee
  • Emphasis on Driving Distance

The AmEx is a longshot friendly event, with recent winners the likes of Nick Dunlap (then an amateur), Jon Rahm (the recent exception), Hudson Swafford, Si Woo Kim, Andrew Landry, and Adam Long.

With a friendly pro-am setup and an extended cut to three rounds, more golfers have a chance to heat up and make a run.

Despite shorter courses overall, distance has mattered a bit more than accuracy -- but it's not a must.

We have just two rounds of ShotLink data at this event (the Stadium Course rounds), so we have to take any data with a grain of salt, but overall, the week's better putters float to the top of the leaderboard, so long as they aren't disastrous with their ball-striking.

The American Express Past Results

Here are each golfer's finishes over the last five years of this event, including their strokes gained data at this event.

The American Express Best Bets

These picks stand out relative to their FanDuel Sportsbook golf betting odds at FanDuel Sportsbook. All stats cited below originate at datagolf and reference ranks relative to the field over the past 50 rounds unless otherwise noted.

Patrick Cantlay

• Odds To Win The American Express (+1800)
• To Finish Top 10 (+230)

With Xander Schauffele's withdrawal, odds have shifted at the top, but I still think Patrick Cantlay's odds are a smidge too long.

Cantlay is fifth in overall true strokes gained per round over his last 50 rounds compared to the rest of the field, and he is a plus across the board.

Cantlay also has solid putting splits on overseeded poa greens (24th in this field over the last two years of data -- because this is a relatively uncommon putting situation).

Cantlay has three career top-10 finishes in six starts at The AmEx, and he enters with eight straight top-25 results since the U.S. Open back in June.

Cantlay has also played in one of the two events in Hawaii to start 2025, which has usually been a key component of finding The AmEx winner. He finished T15 at The Sentry to kick off the year.

Wyndham Clark

• Odds To Win The American Express (+3300)
• To Finish Top 10 (+360)
• To Finish Top 10 (+170)

Wyndham Clark is nearing a full calendar year since his last win after he won the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am in early February of 2024.

But that pro-am experience will come in handy this week.

Clark has two top-20 finishes at The American Express in his career (2019 and 2022) and has made five of six cuts at this setup.

What is notable with Clark right now is that he's consistently gaining distance off the tee (not a surprise) and has a consistently solid short game, a good recipe for birdie chances this week.

The irons are up-and-down, and he is only 78th in approach over the last 50 rounds.

But while that's a key stat this week, we see hot putters find success at The AmEx, an event where longshots tend to win.

Clark also finished T15 at The Sentry, giving him the already-played-in-2025 angle.

J.T. Poston

• Odds To Win The American Express (+6000)
• To Finish Top 10 (+550)
• To Finish Top 20 (+250)

I liked J.T. Poston last week, and...he missed the cut.

But he's now played in both Hawaii events, finishing T40 at The Sentry before missing the cut at the Sony Open.

His putter is cold, as are the irons. Long-term, the irons are just okay (57th), but that's kind of his overall game: solid across the board.

Poston also has a win from the Shriners Children's Open back in October, which he followed up with a T5 at The RSM Classic in November before the Hawaii swing.

Poston has also played well at this event (be it known as the CareerBuilder Challenge, the Desert Classic, or The American Express).

He has made six of eight cuts with four top-25 finishes -- including three straight -- at this setup.

Jason Day

• Odds To Win The American Express (+7000)
• To Finish Top 10 (+600)
• To Finish Top 20 (+280)

Jason Day likely won't jump off the page to most, which is why the odds are long.

But we have seen Day play The American Express three straight years with three made cuts and finishes of T49, T18, and T34.

Day ended 2024 pretty well. Since the start of July, Day has finished no worse than T40 in any event (eight total events), though a few of those were smaller fields.

Day's irons were solid at The Sentry to start 2025 (19th in strokes gained: approach), but he putted poorly (48th), which is uncharacteristic for him. Day is the fifth-best putter in the field by strokes gained: putting over the last 50 rounds.

Yes, he is 97th in approach, and I don't want to gloss over that.

But this is a good event for long shots because scoring conditions make it hard for favorites to separate, and Day's putter has the ability to heat up as much as anyone's.

My model thinks +7000 is a bit too long.

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