Monday Night Football was probably a lot more excited about this matchup when the schedule first came out, but with this being the NFL, we should still always expect the unexpected. Nevertheless, the sinking Dallas Cowboys find themselves as 7.5-point underdogs as hosts to the Houston Texans in Week 11's final matchup.

For those unfamiliar, single-game slates feature five flex spots with identical scoring to the main slate. However, kickers are included in these contests, and there is an "MVP" roster slot. The MVP receives 1.5 times his total fantasy points, making this spot crucial.

FanDuel Research's Brandon Gdula has done a deep dive on single-game strategy, and FanDuel Research has NFL DFS projections if you select the game from the slate tab. It's worth checking out both before making your lineups.

All NFL projections via our numbers at FanDuel Research, and NFL odds references are to FanDuel Sportsbook.

Texans at Cowboys NFL DFS Picks

MVP Candidates

Given the spread and how poorly this Cowboys offense performed without Dak Prescott last week, it's no surprise that three Texans lead the way in our NFL DFS projections: Joe Mixon ($16,500), C.J. Stroud ($13,000), and Nico Collins ($15,000).

Mixon has one of the season's very best workloads, and he's a no-brainer MVP against a Dallas team that's 32nd in schedule-adjusted rush defense, per numberFire. In five games playing over 50% of the snaps, he's averaged 25.8 carries and 3.2 targets for 126.4 scrimmage yards per game, and he's also hogged 81.8% of the red zone rushes.

As the quarterback on a heavy favorite, Stroud is an MVP candidate pretty much by default, yet he's fallen below 13 FanDuel points in four straight games. However, prior to this recent slump, he did score 19+ points three weeks in a row, so he could get back on track versus a defense that's also 28th in adjusted pass D. Finally getting Collins back from injury should give Stroud's outlook a boost, as well.

And speaking of Nico, he's an exciting choice for the multiplier slot and might not have an elevated MVP roster percentage following his multi-week absence.

Across Weeks 1-4, Collins was far and away the top option in Houston's passing attack, leading in target share (29.3%), air yards share (47.9%), red zone target share (41.2%), and end zone target share (77.8%), per NFL Next Gen Stats. He averaged 3.33 yards per route run, going for 100+ yards in three of those four games. All of this happened while Stefon Diggs was still healthy, so it's possible Nico hogs targets to an even greater degree moving forward.

On the Cowboys, Cooper Rush ($12,000) and CeeDee Lamb ($13,500) have the top projections.

It's hard to get stoked about plugging Rush in after his face plant for -2.0 FanDuel points last week, but any time we can get a low-rostered quarterback at MVP, it has to at least be considered in tournaments. Even so, optimism is low against a Houston defense that ranks second in pressure rate (41.7%), per NFL Next Gen Stats, and forced Jared Goff into five picks last week.

Lamb is easier to get on board with if we're picking a Cowboy. While it didn't amount to much production, CeeDee did see promising volume in Week 10, earning a 34.5% target share, 30.6% air yards share, and both red zone targets. Houston has allowed the ninth-most FanDuel points per game to wideouts, and Lamb could still put up a slate-high score through volume in a negative game script -- if his quarterback can be at least somewhat competent.

Flex Targets

Rico Dowdle ($11,500) -- Head coach Mike McCarthy recently said Dowdle "needs to touch the ball more," and the Cowboys' lead back has averaged 12.0 carries, 4.5 targets, and 81.5 scrimmage yards over the past two games. While the workload makes him a viable flex, he's probably realistically out of the MVP conversation as a big underdog versus a defense that's allowed the sixth-fewest FanDuel points per game to RBs.

Tank Dell ($10,500) -- In the four games with a healthy Nico Collins, Dell logged an underwhelming 15.7% target share, but that should bump up with Stefon Diggs out. Tank projects for the slate's third-most targets (7.0), and his receiving yardage prop line is set at 47.5.

Jake Ferguson ($10,000) and Jalen Tolbert ($9,500) -- Ferguson and Tolbert are the top Dallas pass catchers behind CeeDee Lamb, but the floor is obviously low after Cooper Rush struggled last week. Tolbert did lead the team in route rate (97.0%), and two of his five targets were downfield looks (10+ air yards). Ferguson still projects for the second-most targets on Dallas (6.5), though.

Houston Texans D/ST ($9,500) -- The Texans' defense could feast if Rush performs poorly again. Even with several teams having 11 games played, Houston ranks seventh in sacks (29) and are tied for third in interceptions (13). It isn't outlandish to even roll this unit out as a contrarian MVP in case things really get ugly.

Brandon Aubrey ($9,000) and Ka'imi Fairbairn ($9,000) -- Fairbairn is easily the preferred kicker on the team with the 24.25 implied team total. Aubrey has missed just two kicks all year, though, and our Austan Kas likes his kicking points prop tonight.

Dalton Schultz ($8,500) -- Schultz hasn't scored a touchdown yet this season, which is less surprising when you consider he has a mere 5.0% red zone target share. That's led to him being held to single-digit FanDuel points in every game. He projects for 4.8 targets but is a touchdown-or-bust option who seems more likely for the bust part.

John Metchie III ($7,000) -- Metchie probably takes a back seat with Collins back. Still, he's easily coming off the best game of his young career after catching 5-of-6 targets for 74 yards and a touchdown, so maybe he can still be a factor.

Jalen Brooks ($6,500) -- Brooks led Dallas with three downfield targets in Week 10, which gives him some dart-throw appeal. However, he hasn't reached even 30 receiving yards in a game this year.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.