Super Bowl Betting History: How Often Underdogs Win and Totals Go Over Entering 2025

Now that the matchup for Super Bowl LIX is all set, it's time to dig into the betting markets.

In FanDuel Sportsbook's NFL betting odds, the Kansas City Chiefs are favored to complete the three-peat as they take on the Philadelphia Eagles.

Before you fill out your betslips, you may have a few questions, such as:

• How often does the favorite win the Super Bowl?
• How often does the underdog cover?
• How many times has the total gone over or under?

Today, we'll dig into those questions and see what pops up.

It's important to note that you shouldn't use trends like this as the basis for a bet. Context matters, and the context of what happened back in 1970 likely has no bearing on this specific matchup. But for kicks and giggles, it is fun to at least take a look.

Let's start with the winners and then dig into totals later on.

How Often Does the Favorite Win the Super Bowl?

Based on Pro Football Reference's data, a team has been favored in 57 of 58 previous Super Bowls. The lone exception -- when the spread was a pick 'em -- came when the New England Patriots defeated the Seattle Seahawks in 2015.

Across the other 57 Super Bowls, the favored team has won 37 times, or 64.9%. This would translate to a moneyline of roughly -185 on the favorite historically.

How Often Does the Underdog Win the Super Bowl?

Naturally, if the favorite has won 37 of 57 renditions, that does mean that an underdog has won outright 20 times (35.1%). One of those times was when the Chiefs and Eagles met two years ago. The Chiefs were one-point underdogs there and won, 38-35.

The biggest upset for an outright win came from the New York Jets back in 1969. They entered that game as 18-point underdogs and got the win, 16-7. Things have gone swimmingly for the franchise ever since.

Interestingly, of the 14 times we've had a double-digit spread in the Super Bowl, the underdog has won outright 5 times (35.7%).

How Often Does the Underdog Cover the Spread in the Super Bowl?

For Super Bowl LIX, there aren't a ton of paths where the Eagles win but don't cover. We have seen that scenario pop up decently often throughout history, though.

Underdogs are 27-28-2 against the spread in the 57 non-pick-'em games. This means there are nine instances where the underdog either covered or pushed but didn't win the game.

The other takeaway from a 27-28-2 record for underdogs? Bookmakers are pretty dang good at what they do.

When we look at tighter spreads like the one we'll have this week, the team that wins does tend to cover.

Assuming the spread holds, this will be the 19th time we've had a spread of three points or less (again, omitting the game that was a pick 'em). Every time the underdog has covered, they've won outright, doing so in 8 of 18 instances.

What's the Largest Spread in Super Bowl History?

Those '68 Jets are the biggest underdogs to win, but they weren't the biggest underdogs overall.

That "honor" belongs to the San Diego Chargers against the San Francisco 49ers back in 1995. The Chargers were 19-point underdogs there; the 49ers won, 49-26, by enough to cover the spread.

What's the Smallest Spread in Super Bowl History?

As mentioned above, we do have one instance in history where the game closed as a pick 'em. That was the Patriots versus the Seahawks in 2015: the Malcolm Butler bowl.

Beyond that, four other games did have a spread of less than two points.

The Chiefs have been involved in two of the four tightest spreads in Super Bowl history, and they won both times. Currently, this year's spread is right in that range; we'll see if history repeats itself.

How Often Does the Total Go Over or Under in the Super Bowl?

As we shift to focus on the total, we'll once again lean on Pro Football Reference's data. Their archive doesn't have a total listed for Super Bowl I, so we'll focus on just the other 57 for these purposes.

In those 57 games, the total has gone over 28 times (49.1%).

Again, bookmakers are good at what they do.

One of those overs was the first matchup between these two. The total for Chiefs-Eagles in Super Bowl LVII was 51; it finished with 73 total points.

With the total for this one sitting at 49.5 at time of publication, we can zero in on some higher totals, as well. This will be the 16th time the total has been between 48 and 52 points. Of that sample, the over has hit 9 times (60.0%). Thus, if you do like the over, I wouldn't let the past trends scare you out of it.

What's the Highest Total in Super Bowl History?

It's okay if you close the tab, Atlanta Falcons fans. I don't want to open old wounds.

The highest total in Super Bowl history was the famed 28-3 game against the Patriots. That total was 57 pre-game. The over hit thanks to James White's overtime touchdown, but they were on 56 points at the end of regulation.

That's one of five Super Bowls to feature a total of 54 or higher. Not surprisingly, all five have come since the offensive boom in the late 2000s.

Interestingly, the 28-3 game is the lone over in that group, and it needed overtime to get there. Three of the other four actually failed to top 40 points, including a 13-3 win for the Patriots over the Los Angeles Rams in 2019.

What's the Lowest Total in Super Bowl History?

On the flip side of things, four games are tied for the lowest total in Super Bowl history. Those were all at 33 points, three of which came in the mid-1970s.

The one exception was the Baltimore Ravens against the New York Giants in 2001. The Ravens wound up going over the total all by themselves as they won, 34-7.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.