Super Bowl LIX MVP: Odds, Best Bets, and Darkhorse Picks

There are endless betting markets to choose from for Super Bowl LIX between the Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles, which includes an opportunity to pick who will secure the Super Bowl MVP trophy when the final whistle blows on Sunday.

The Super Bowl MVP is handed to the player who puts together the most notable performance -- and it certainly favors players from the winning team. While quarterbacks tend to take home the hardware, there is a chance for other positions to earn the award due to it being reliant on how they perform in a single-game setting on the biggest stage.

Taking that all into account, let's take a look at the favorites, best bets, and darkhorse picks for the MVP award in Super Bowl LIX between the Chiefs and Eagles.

Super Bowl LIX MVP Favorites

Once again, quarterbacks are typically favored other positions for Super Bowl MVP, winning the trophy in 7 of the last 10 Super Bowls. Patrick Mahomes has been voted MVP in each of Kansas City's last three Super Bowl wins while Nick Foles improbably earned the honor in Super Bowl LII when Philly upset the New England Patriots.

Here are the favorites to win Super Bowl MVP in Sunday's Chiefs-Eagles showdown.

Best Super Bowl LIX MVP Bets

Patrick Mahomes (+110)

I apologize ahead of time for recommending a player with the shortest odds to win Super Bowl MVP, but Mahomes is understandably the favorite if the Chiefs achieve their third consecutive Super Bowl victory. Even with the shortest odds in this market, there is still value in backing Mahomes at plus odds with quarterbacks having a clear edge over other positions.

Whenever Kansas City and Philly met in Super Bowl LVII, Mahomes took home the hardware by completing 21 of his 27 passes for 182 yards and 3 touchdowns. Then, Mahomes won back-to-back Super Bowl MVPs by completing 34 of his 46 attempts for 333 yards and 2 touchdowns in last year's big game versus the San Francisco 49ers.

Although Mahomes' box score numbers haven't been jaw-dropping in these playoffs, the elite signal-caller has logged a stellar 0.36 expected points added per drop back and a 51.5% passing success rate in KC's two postseason contests, per NextGenStats. With the Chiefs currently listed as slight favorites, Mahomes certainly has the upper-hand over his teammates to win Super Bowl MVP against an Eagles team that has the better roster -- at least on paper.

Jalen Hurts (+350)

While Saquon Barkley should have a decent shot at winning Super Bowl MVP if the Eagles emerge victorious on Sunday, I'll take Philly's quarterback in this market at longer odds. Jalen Hurts doesn't typically have lofty outputs through the air, but the dual-threat quarterback has a chance to follow in Foles' footsteps if touchdowns bounce in his direction.

In the NFC Championship against the Washington Commanders, Hurts found the end zone three times while also completing 20 of his 28 passes for 246 yards and another score in a 55-23 blowout win. With the Eagles still leaning on Hurts near the goal line with the tush push despite Barkley's arrival, voters may have no choice to hand Hurts the trophy if he contributes multiple scores on the ground.

Entering Sunday's much-anticipated clash, the Chiefs are 22nd in yards per carry (4.9) and 29th in defensive rushing success rate (55.7%) against quarterbacks. In a scenario where Philly is crowned Super Bowl champions, the MVP could ultimately be decided how the rushing touchdowns are divvied up between Hurts and Barkley.

Super Bowl LIX MVP Darkhorse Picks

Xavier Worthy (+3100)

Across the last 10 years, there has only been three non-quarterbacks to win Super Bowl MVP, and two of those were wide receivers. Cooper Kupp was the last non-quarterback to earn the honors in Super Bowl LVI while Julian Edelman was awarded the trophy in Super Bowl LIII.

Keeping that in mind, Xavier Worthy is a non-quarterback who can be a darkhorse in this market given his increased role since the latter part of the regular season. Besides Worthy earning six-plus targets in eight consecutive outings (excluding Week 18 when Chiefs rested starters), the rookie wideout is registering the second-highest target share (22.3%), most receptions per game (5.8), most receiving yards per game (57.6), and highest red-zone target share (27.8%) in KC's offense during that span.

First-year receivers typically aren't worth taking a flier on for Super Bowl MVP, but the Chiefs' aerial attack has looked much better since making Worthy a more prominent player in the offense. While Mahomes and Travis Kelce tend to have memorable performances together in the Super Bowl, there's a chance for Worthy to produce better numbers versus the Eagles on Sunday.

DeVonta Smith (+5500)

When looking at darkhorse picks to win Super Bowl MVP, A.J. Brown was certainly a name that came to mind on the Eagles side of things. At the same time, there shouldn't be such a wide gap between DeVonta Smith and Brown in the same market.

Not only do the Chiefs struggle at times against slot receivers, but Smith logged 7 catches for 100 yards on 9 targets just two years ago when facing KC in the Super Bowl. Comparatively, Brown tallied 6 receptions for 96 yards and a touchdown on 8 targets in the previous meeting, showing how close their usage can be on the biggest stage.

Over their 14 games where both Brown and Smith were on the field together this season, Brown notched a 33.1% target share, 4.6 receptions per game, 73.1 receiving yards per game, and 2.84 yards per route run. Smith managed to produce a 26.3% target share, 4.7 receptions per game, 57.1 receiving yards per game, and 2.20 yards per route run in the same 14-game sample.

Even though the Eagles prefer to pound the rock with Hurts and Barkley, Smith has an opportunity to win Super Bowl MVP with the Chiefs ranking 20th in adjusted defensive passing NEP per play (0.11) compared to 16th in adjusted defensive rushing NEP per play (0.06).

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.