Sunday Night Football Preview: Will the Ravens or Jaguars Vault Toward the AFC's One Seed?

Week 15's Sunday night matchup will feature two current AFC playoff contenders in a matchup between the visiting Baltimore Ravens and the host Jacksonville Jaguars.

Both of the teams met their fair share of adversity a week ago. With Trevor Lawrence even questionable to suit up with a nasty looking ankle sprain, the Jags cut an early Cleveland Browns onslaught to a one-possession game but came up short, 31-27. Amazingly, Lawrence isn't even on this week's injury report two weeks after the high ankle sprain.

Baltimore needed a Tylan Wallace punt return touchdown in overtime to escape the Los Angeles Rams at home, but the Ravens have found a way to win all season. They're currently in line for the AFC's top seed at 10-3, but the 8-5 Jaguars can re-enter the conversation with a head-to-head win on Sunday. It's a huge game with the Miami Dolphins (9-4) still in the mix, as well.

The game kicks off at 8:20 p.m. ET and can be seen on NBC.

NFL odds via FanDuel Sportsbook. Lines may change after this article is published.

Ravens at Jaguars Week 15 Betting Odds: Spread, Total, and Moneyline

• Spread: Ravens -3 (-115)
• Total: 41.5
• Moneyline:
  • Ravens (-180)
  • Jaguars (+152)

Ravens at Jaguars Week 15 Matchup Analysis

numberFire's schedule-adjusted rankings couldn't be much higher on Baltimore, pegging them as the third-best team in the NFL (11.91 nERD).

Baltimore sits in that position behind the league's sixth-best offense and best overall defense, but it has had its Achilles' heel recently. In the past five weeks, the Ravens have surrendered a league-worst 0.17 Rushing Net Expected Points (NEP) per carry to opposing ball-carriers. Jacksonville has a path to move the ball just as the Rams did last week with 128 rushing yards.

On the flip side, the Jags' wonky season has left them with numberFire's 17th-best offense and 14th-best defense. Averaging it out, they're the 13th-best team overall with a 0.37 nERD. If these games were decided on paper, the Ravens have already won it, but Jacksonville's true ceiling behind Lawrence could be quit high. They've defeated the Buffalo Bills and played the Kansas City Chiefs to one possession at home.

Over the past five weeks, it's the Jags' defense that has let them down. They've posted a bottom-eight mark in Passing (0.17) and Rushing (0.12) NEP per attempt in that period of time, getting run over by Jake Browning and Joe Flacco along the way. With MVP candidate Lamar Jackson coming to town, they have to be worried.

To no one's surprise, the Ravens are a public darling laying just three points in this spot. 69% of the tickets and 62% of the money lies with them on FanDuel Sportsbook. However, Lamar and the Ravens are 12-19 against the spread (ATS) in their last 31 games a favorite. This is a spot we've seen them disappoint public bettors before.

Ravens at Jaguars Best Bets

Jaguars +3.5 (-122)

In one of the better SNF games of the year, I don't want to get smashed by this public bulldozer.

As massive of a game as this is for Jacksonville, it's a bit of a trap spot for Baltimore. Any eyeballs ahead would notice they've got the San Francisco 49ers next week in a potential Super Bowl preview, so the reeling Jaguars might not be a high-priority spot in the minds of some.

As for Jacksonville, this is a pivotal game to continue to outpace the Indianapolis Colts and Houston Texans in the AFC South. Both of the 2022 cellar-dwellars have easier rest of season (ROS) schedules than the Jags, so another setback to the Ravens could ultimately prove disastrous.

The Jaguars' recent defensive struggles are worrisome, but the Niners, Texans, Browns, and Cincinnati Bengals have been lighting up the scoreboard on plenty of others in recent weeks. numberFire still rates them out as an above-average unit, and I'd agree. This game's adjusted pace also isn't ideal for a shootout.

This line is far closer than numberFire would set it, and the spot is likely the reason. Jackson is 21-31 ATS as a favorite of more than three points, so the hook -- which might have to be bought as an alternate spread -- could be absolutely paramount.

Travis Etienne 60+ Rushing Yards (+142)

I couldn't love a prop from a primetime game more than this one.

As mentioned, Baltimore's rush defense has been abysmal in recent weeks, but it's gone largely unnoticed thanks to no scores. In addition to the Rams' 128 yards last week, the Bengals posted 131 rushing yards without a touchdown two weeks ago, and even a hapless Los Angeles Chargers attack had 86 yards on the ground against them. Largely, these totals have come in negative game scripts, too.

There aren't many down-to-down roles better than Travis Etienne's in this one. Etienne got 77.0% of the Jags' snaps last week, turning 14 carries into 35 yards against a brutal Browns front. He's handled 14.8 carries per game despite the Jaguars themselves also trailing quite a bit.

numberFire's projections have Etienne pegged for 68.6 yards at a median, but keep in mind that they feel better about the Ravens' rush defense overall than it has performed recently. With fractional units, I'll ladder the former Clemson Tigers back with 70+ Rushing Yards (+220), 80+ Rushing Yards (+320), and 100+ Rushing Yards (+640), as well.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.