Spurs vs. Thunder: Prediction, Picks and Same Game Parlay for Game 1

Top Bets at a Glance

• Thunder Moneyline
• Shai Gilgeous-Alexander to Score 30+ Points
• Under 220.5 Total Points

The NBA postseason offers us a wide variety of betting options, including point spreads, moneylines, and totals.

However, various advanced statistics can help narrow the choices. Our NBA projections paired with advanced stats from the NBA can help give the inside track to quality bets.

While utilizing some of the mentioned tools, which NBA odds from FanDuel Sportsbook look like the best bets today?

Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

What are the top NBA prop bets for today?

Thunder vs. Spurs Game 1: SGP, Best Bets, Props and Prediction

Leg 1: Oklahoma City Thunder Moneyline

The Oklahoma City Thunder's playoff offensive rating of 124.3 is historically elite, and the Thunder have gone 8-0 in these playoffs while posting a net rating of +17.0 in their first two series combined. Paycom Center, where the Thunder are 17-2 across the last two postseasons, is a fortress for Oklahoma City.

The returning health of Jalen Williams is a critical factor that elevates OKC's win probability. Williams is expected to be available for Game 1 after missing the entire second round with a hamstring strain. The Thunder forward's return gives OKC secondary creation, perimeter defense, and lineup versatility that has been missing since April 22.

If Williams gives the Thunder 16-20 points, secondary creation, and strong defense, the challenge facing the San Antonio Spurs' D becomes much harder.

With a significant rest edge and playing at an incredibly high level so far in these playoffs, OKC's ML is a solid anchor leg.

Leg 2: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander to Score 30+ Points

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is averaging 29.1 points and 7.1 assists in the playoffs on 63.1% true shooting. He is the back-to-back NBA MVP and the consensus best player in the sport in 2026. The 30.5 line is almost his current playoff average — yet there are strong structural reasons why this Game 1 should produce a performance above that baseline.

SGA played in four of the five regular-season games against San Antonio, averaging 29.5 points per game with a 50.6% field goal percentage in 35.5 minutes. He has shown he can score against San Antonio's defense even in the four games the Spurs won. In the Thunder's one regular-season win against San Antonio (the 21-point blowout on Jan. 13), SGA put up 35 points. His scoring average against the Spurs directly mirrors his overall playoff production.

If De'Aaron Fox (ankle) is limited or unavailable, it takes away one of the players who would likely spend a lot of time on SGA, but even if Fox suits up, Shai can pour in at least 30 points in this spot.

Leg 3: Under 220.5 Total Points

The under has hit in six of the last 10 head-to-head meetings between these teams, including three of five meetings this season. It makes sense, too, as even though both sides have a lot of offensive talent, they're elite defensive units -- with OKC first in defensive rating this campaign and the Spurs third.

Those trends reflect the structural reality of what happens when Wembanyama's rim protection meets Oklahoma City's smothering half-court defense. In short, easy buckets should be hard to come by tonight -- and all series.

SGP Odds at Publication: +345

NBA Betting Frequently Asked Questions

What is the point spread in NBA betting?

The point spread is a handicap applied to the favored team to level the playing field. For example, if the Lakers are -6.5 against the Celtics, the Lakers must win by 7 or more points for a bet on them to pay out. A bet on the Celtics wins if Boston wins outright or loses by 6 points or fewer.

What does the moneyline mean in NBA betting?

A moneyline bet is a straight-up wager on which team wins — no spread involved. Odds use American format: a favorite is listed with a minus sign (e.g., -180), meaning a wager of $180 would win $100. An underdog carries a plus sign (e.g., +155), meaning a $100 bet would return $155 profit.

What is an over/under (total) bet in the NBA?

FanDuel will set a projected combined score for both teams. You bet whether the actual total points will go Over or Under that number. For example, if the total is 224.5, an Over bet wins if both teams combine for 225 or more points.

What are NBA player props?

Player prop bets focus on individual statistical performances rather than game outcomes. Common NBA props include points scored, rebounds, assists, three-pointers made, steals, and combined stat lines (e.g., Points + Rebounds + Assists). You bet whether the player goes Over or Under the sportsbook's posted line.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.