RotoWire makes the case unambiguously: "Oyarzabal takes the penalties and plays on the last shoulder of the back line. Against a defense this overmatched, he will see more than one clean chance, plus the live possibility of a spot kick. Yes, -148 is short. But in a 4-0, a scorer prop on the penalty man is close to free money, and he is the safest goal on the board."

WhoScored model gives him a 65.74% anytime probability — the highest of any player in this match. Oddschecker back him in their bet builder explicitly: "Oyarzabal has scored in each of his last four outings and carries a 65.74% chance of finding the net here. He is Spain's most consistent finisher in this cycle." Goal.com name him first goalscorer pick at +270: "six goals in World Cup qualifying at a rate of one every 74 minutes. He netted first inside the opening 15 minutes in two of Spain's six matches during that campaign." He also struck a second-minute opener against Peru in his most recent match. At -180 anytime, this is the clearest goalscorer bet on the entire opening day slate.

Fox Sports leads with Yamal in their article preview: "Lamine Yamal is -105 to score in his World Cup debut against Cape Verde." SI.com notes: "Assuming he's fully recovered from the hamstring injury he suffered in April, it'll be hard for Spain's manager to resist. Yamal will want to start." SportsBettingDime name him their top conditional pick: "Lamine Yamal's anytime goalscorer price remains attractive at +113 if he starts, but his injury status makes it a conditional play only."

Oddschecker's bet builder includes "Lamine Yamal Over 3.5 shots" — which has landed in each of his last four appearances — underlining his involvement even without a goal. At -105, effectively even money for arguably the best young player in world football making his World Cup debut against a team from a nation of 500,000, this is one of the most attractive conditional bets of the tournament. Confirm the starting XI at noon.

Baena is the single best plus-money Spain pick on the board at +140 — and the SportsBettingDime analysis is key: "The fact that two of Spain's top scorers — Yamal and Williams — are not likely to start bolsters this pick." As the third attacker in a front three, Baena would operate centrally when Yamal and Williams are absent — bringing him closer to goal than his wide position suggests. Even if both Yamal and Williams do start, Baena figures as either a starter or a high-impact substitute in a game Spain are expected to win by multiple goals, meaning the second half becomes a genuine scoring opportunity. At +140 anytime, this is the card's clearest value pick for a player with confirmed routes to the pitch in either scenario.

65.74% probability — highest of any player. RotoWire: "safest goal on the board, close to free money." Penalty taker, scored in each of his last 4, one goal every 74 minutes in WC qualifying. Spain projected to win 4-0. Against a Cabo Verde side whose only top-5 European league player is a centre-back, Oyarzabal is the clearest goalscorer bet of the entire opening day.