Single-Game NFL DFS Picks: Thursday Night (Patriots at Jets)

Thursday night's matchup between the New England Patriots and New York Jets is likely to be short on touchdowns, coming in one of the week's lowest totals (38.5). The Jets are 6.5-point home favorites over their AFC East rivals.

For those unfamiliar, single-game slates feature five flex spots with identical scoring to the main slate. However, kickers are included in these contests, and there is an "MVP" roster slot. The MVP receives 1.5 times his total fantasy points, making this spot crucial.

FanDuel Research's Brandon Gdula has done a deep dive on single-game strategy, and FanDuel Research has NFL DFS projections if you select the game from the slate tab. It's worth checking out both before making your lineups.

All NFL projections via our numbers at FanDuel Research, and NFL odds references are to FanDuel Sportsbook.

NFL DFS Single-Game Picks

MVP Candidates

With this expected to be a low-scoring game, not many players have a realistic shot at posting gaudy numbers tonight, but running backs Breece Hall ($16,000) and Rhamondre Stevenson ($15,000) should be involved early and often.

Hall leads the slate in our fantasy football projections, averaging a robust 29.0 adjusted opportunities (carries plus 2x targets) through two games, one of the NFL's best workloads thus far. He's converted that volume into 103.5 scrimmage yards per game while scoring 2 total touchdowns, leading to FanDuel scores of 15.8 and 20.9 points. The Patriots are numberFire's 10th-best adjusted rush defense in the early going, but Hall is an easy click at MVP behind massive volume on a sizable home favorite.

Stevenson has been one of the few RBs to see more adjusted opportunities than Hall, averaging 31.0 in his two contests. On an offense lacking playmakers, it's clear New England wants to feature Rhamondre as much as possible, and their promising defense has kept games close enough to keep the run game in play. He's averaged 108.0 scrimmage yards per game while tallying a pair of TDs, resulting in 23.1 and 16.0 FanDuel points. New York entered the night ranked 22nd in adjusted rush defense, so Stevenson has a clear path to an MVP performance as long as game script allows.

It gets murky rather quickly after the lead backs, as neither passing attack has generated a ton of production. Aaron Rodgers ($14,000) has the second-best median projection in our model, but he's averaged just 171.5 passing yards per game in an offense that's 26th in adjusted pace and 28th in plays per game. It's not like he's been particularly efficient, either, averaging -0.13 expected points added per drop back, per NFL Next Gen Stats. As the quarterback on the favored side, he's technically an MVP play in a matchup where fantasy scores could be down -- but I tend to lean toward utilizing him as a flex play.

While New York wideout Garrett Wilson ($13,000) hasn't popped in the box score yet, he's clearly Rodgers' favorite option, boasting a 29.3% target share and 42.2% air yards share while running 95.3% of the routes. Despite New England's generally strong defensive play, D.K. Metcalf was still able to go off for 26.9 FanDuel points against them in Week 2. If this Jets passing attack gets going, it will almost certainly come through Wilson, making him a more intriguing MVP compared to Rodgers.

On the other side, Patriots tight end Hunter Henry ($11,000) is the lone pass-catcher of note after a head-turning outing last week, hauling in 8 of 12 targets for 109 yards (17.9 FanDuel points). He wasn't nearly as involved in Week 1, so it's difficult to say whether he'll continue to be featured, but he enters the day with a 31.9% target share and 34.5% air yards share, and no other Pats player comes close.

Flex Targets

Jacoby Brissett ($12,500) -- Brissett has averaged just 9.3 FanDuel points and has been the pure definition of a game manager. He's still on the flex radar in case he's forced to air it out in a negative game script, but it's clear his ceiling is pretty limited. His passing yardage prop line is set at 163.5 yards.

Antonio Gibson ($11,500) -- Gibson popped for a surprising 103 scrimmage yards last week, showing he could have his moments for the Pats this season. However, he's averaged just 10.0 adjusted opportunities and a 22.3% snap rate, so his floor isn't particularly high, either.

Braelon Allen ($10,000) -- Much to the dismay of Hall's season-long managers, Allen scored two touchdowns last week despite playing just 35.7% of the snaps with 15 adjusted opportunities. While he's unlikely to repeat that, there's some flex appeal here in a game lacking many sure things.

New York Jets D/ST ($9,500) -- Brissett hasn't turned the ball over yet -- due in part to New England's run-heavy approach -- but he's been facing a lot of pressure and took three sacks last week. If he's forced to air it out more than the Pats would like, this could open the door for a big night from the Jets' defense.

Allen Lazard ($9,500) and Mike Williams ($9,000) -- Lazard has been New York's No. 2 wideout, but Williams saw a big boost in snaps and routes last week, leading to Lazard running just one more route than Williams (24 to 23). Williams is actually projected for the more targets of the two (5.5 to 4.2) and might not be in as many single-game lineups due to his lack of results thus far.

Greg Zuerlein ($8,500) and Joey Slye ($8,500) -- This is absolutely the kind of low-scoring game where a kicker could end up on the optimal lineup. Zuerlein hasn't been busy yet, but he's the safer choice kicking for the team favored by nearly a touchdown.

Tyler Conklin ($8,000) -- Conklin has a 91.4% snap rate and 76.6% route rate, but it's translated to just 4 total targets.

Ja'Lynn Polk ($8,000), Demario Douglas ($7,500), K.J. Osborn ($7,500) and Tyquan Thornton ($7,000) -- The Patriots' wide receiver room is the stuff of fantasy nightmares with all four of these guys running over 50% of the routes but none reaching even 65%. It's telling that Douglas has the highest receiving yards prop line of the group at 26.5 yards, and he didn't even see a target in Week 2. Polk and Douglas ran the most routes last week, and Polk caught New England's only receiving TD. Meanwhile, Osborn has the group's highest target share (17.0%) and is projected for the most targets (4.9). We're basically throwing darts here, and chances are none of them post a noteworthy fantasy score unless one gets a touchdown.

Austin Hooper ($7,000) -- Hooper is someone to mostly avoid due to his 37.7% route rate, but he's technically third on the Patriots in target share (10.6%).

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.