START YOUR OWN WINNING STREAK

Player Image
SportsBookLogo
Chevrons Texture
NFL

Single-Game NFL DFS Picks: Thursday Night (Broncos at Saints)

Kenyatta Storin
Kenyatta Storin@KenyattaStorin

Subscribe to our newsletter

Single-Game NFL DFS Picks: Thursday Night (Broncos at Saints)

At least on paper, Week 7 will get off to a quiet start on Thursday Night Football in what should be a low-scoring battle between the Denver Broncos and New Orleans Saints. According to the NFL odds on FanDuel Sportsbook, this game has the lowest over/under (36.5) of the entire week.

For those unfamiliar, single-game slates feature five flex spots with identical scoring to the main slate. However, kickers are included in these contests, and there is an "MVP" roster slot. The MVP receives 1.5 times his total fantasy points, making this spot crucial.

FanDuel Research's Brandon Gdula has done a deep dive on single-game strategy, and FanDuel Research has NFL DFS projections if you select the game from the slate tab. It's worth checking out both before making your lineups.

All NFL projections via our numbers at FanDuel Research, and NFL odds references are to FanDuel Sportsbook.

NFL DFS Single-Game Picks

MVP Candidates

Injuries will significantly impact the Saints' offense on Thursday. Chris Olave (concussion) and Rashid Shaheed (knee) have both been ruled out while Derek Carr and Taysom Hill (rib) are doubtful to play, as well.

Given all that, it's safe to say Alvin Kamara ($16,000) will be a popular MVP option after averaging an elite 29.3 adjusted opportunities (carries plus 2x targets) and 111.0 scrimmage yards over the first six games. He's been limited in practice all week, but barring an in-game setback, New Orleans will almost certainly lean heavily on their star back. Kamara's rushing plus receiving yards prop line is set at 109.5.

Alvin Kamara - Rushing + Receiving Yds

Alvin Kamara Over
@
Alvin Kamara Under
Oct 18 12:15am UTCMore odds in Sportsbook

Denver's Bo Nix ($15,000) hasn't put up exciting passing numbers, exceeding 220 passing yards just once in six games, but he's still scored 19+ FanDuel points in half those starts. The key has been averaging 6.2 rushes for 30.0 yards per game while cashing in 3 rushing TDs off a 40.9% red zone rush share. Kamara and Nix are the clear top options in our NFL DFS projections.

Spencer Rattler ($14,500) should get another start at QB for New Orleans with Carr expected out, and he put up 14.4 FanDuel points in his debut last week. Not only will Rattler be up against it without Olave and Shaheed, but the offensive line is dealing with injuries, too. Considering the rookie produced -0.45 expected points added per drop back in Week 6 and will be facing numberFire's second-best schedule-adjusted pass defense, he's a risky MVP option, yet still projects for the third-most FanDuel points in our model. Rattler did rush for 27 yards, which is hopefully something that continues to boost his floor.

Between all the Saints' injuries and the slate's overall lack of star power, the Denver Broncos D/ST ($8,500) absolutely deserves strong consideration at MVP. Rattler's struggles in his first start included tossing two picks and taking five sacks against a run-of-the-mill Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense. Per NFL Next Gen Stats, Denver boasts the league's second-highest quarterback pressure rate (41.0%), and they could wreak havoc against New Orleans' banged-up o-line.

Javonte Williams ($11,500) has been Denver's lead back all year, averaging a respectable 18.5 adjusted opportunities per game with a 58.4% snap rate. However, he's hit double-digit FanDuel points once thus far (13.6) and has to compete with Nix for red zone touches. Still, we probably shouldn't rule him out of the MVP discussion against the 31st-ranked adjusted rush defense.

Courtland Sutton ($11,000) is the Broncos' top wideout, sporting a 24.5% target share, 42.1% air yards share, and 45.0% red zone target share. Like Williams, he hasn't produced a spike week yet, but he's hit 10-13 FanDuel points in three of six games, and the strong role should theoretically lead to a big game eventually. He's projected for a game-high 6.8 targets.

Flex Targets

Blake Grupe ($9,500) and Wil Lutz ($9,500) -- In a matchup where touchdowns could be hard to come by, the kickers should be bigger priorities than usual, and they'll also get a boost from kicking indoors. Both are solid options to round out lineups.

New Orleans Saints D/ST ($9,000) -- While the Saints' defense is less likely to put up a big score compared to their counterpart, they're still facing a rookie quarterback themselves. Nix has been erratic as a passer, logging -0.22 expected points added per drop back, -5.8% completion percentage over expected, and a 37.6% passing success rate.

Bub Means ($8,500) -- Means should be the de facto No. 1 wideout for New Orleans this week. With Olave going down early in Week 6, Means recorded a 66.7% route rate and 21.1% target rate, and he also saw half the red zone targets. It probably doesn't hurt that top Broncos CB Patrick Surtain II (concussion) isn't playing.

Juwan Johnson ($8,000) -- Johnson's route rate has steadily increased across the past three weeks (60.5%, 68.4%, and 72.9%), and while he's logged just a 10.4% target share over that span, he should be busier with the Saints short on options.

Jaleel McLaughlin ($7,500) -- McLaughlin is averaging 10.3 adjusted opportunities per game with a 31.7% snap rate backing up Javonte Williams. It isn't an amazing role, but he's still worth considering as a value play.

Devaughn Vele ($7,000), Troy Franklin ($8,000), and Lucas Krull ($5,000) -- These three are the top Denver pass-catchers behind Sutton, as they all ran above 60% of the routes last week. Of the group, Vele and Franklin are both projected for 4+ targets apiece. Krull is probably strictly in touchdown-or-bust territory, but it's hard to argue with that bargain salary.

Cedrick Wilson ($6,000) and Mason Tipton ($6,500) -- Similar to Means, Wilson saw a bump in route rate last week (52.1%), so he could also have a significant role with the top wideouts sidelined. Tipton has gotten consistent usage over the last four weeks with a 48.3% route rate. It's difficult to predict how the targets will shake out, but Wilson is projected for a promising 4.7 targets.

Kendre Miller ($5,000) -- Miller was activated from injured reserve this past weekend and could be "ready to go" for this game. If he's active, he's worth a dart throw in case he takes on a bigger role than expected behind Kamara.


FanDuel customers can also bet on Squares every Thursday Night. Know all the odds, for all the numbers. It's the same Super Bowl Squares game you've played before — only way better. Learn more at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Interested in playing NFL DFS? Head over to FanDuel’s daily fantasy football lobby to see all the offerings for this week's slates.

Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook and FanDuel Daily Fantasy today!


The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.

Subscribe to our newsletter

Want more stories like this?

Sign up to our newsletter to receive the latest news.

Newsletter Signup
Newsletter Signup