Single-Game NFL DFS Picks: Sunday Night (Chiefs at Falcons)

Tonight's edition of Sunday Night Football will feature the an intriguing matchup between the Kansas City Chiefs and Atlanta Falcons. The Falcons are coming off an improbable win over the Philadelphia Eagles on Monday and will look to see if they can build off those good vibes against the Super Bowl champs. The Chiefs are 3.0-point road favorites, and the game has a solid 46.5 total.

For those unfamiliar, single-game slates feature five flex spots with identical scoring to the main slate. However, kickers are included in these contests, and there is an "MVP" roster slot. The MVP receives 1.5 times his total fantasy points, making this spot crucial.

FanDuel Research's Brandon Gdula has done a deep dive on single-game strategy, and FanDuel Research has NFL DFS projections if you select the game from the slate tab. It's worth checking out both before making your lineups.

All NFL projections via our numbers at FanDuel Research, and NFL odds references are to FanDuel Sportsbook.

NFL DFS Single-Game Picks

MVP Candidates

While Bijan Robinson ($15,500) is still waiting for his first touchdown of 2024, it's only a matter of time after averaging 116.5 scrimmage yards behind 26.0 adjusted opportunities (carries plus 2x targets) and an 81.5% snap rate through two games. He's one of my favorite MVP options despite what will be a high roster percentage.

Patrick Mahomes ($17,000) has the game's top median score in our fantasy football projections but hasn't exceeded 16 FanDuel points in either of his starts. Part of this is due to Mahomes averaging just 26.5 pass attempts so far, and he's also uncharacteristically thrown three picks.

That being said, we shouldn't worry about a few interceptions, and more passing volume should be coming in this matchup. Kansas City ranks eighth in pass rate over expectation, and the Falcons have played at the fourth-best adjusted pace. Mahomes' passing yardage prop is set at a lofty 267.5 yards, and he should still be a popular MVP despite the modest early production.

Rashee Rice ($13,000) has been the clear top option in Kansas City's passing attack, soaking up a 31.3% target share and 35.8% air yards share. Our model projects him for a game-high 9.3 targets, and he also has the highest receiving yardage prop line (76.5 yards). He's a quality MVP and should get much less attention than Robinson and Mahomes.

Atlanta's passing attack has been a work in progress, and Drake London ($11,500) narrowly avoided another underwhelming outing by catching the go-ahead touchdown in Monday's dramatic comeback. Still, he saw seven targets in that game, and the Falcons have their starting wideouts running routes on virtually every snap. He's projected for the slate's second-most targets (8.7) and should have a fairly low MVP roster percentage.

I'm not super high on Kirk Cousins ($14,000) for the multiplier slot after what's mostly been a meh couple of games, but perhaps Monday's game-winning drive sparks this offense going forward. We saw a similar case with Aaron Rodgers, who had pedestrian numbers before coming alive for 21.0 FanDuel points versus the New England Patriots on Thursday. Cousins has the third-best median projection and will likely need a big game to upset the Chiefs.

If I'm rolling the dice on a Chiefs running back posting a slate-best score, Carson Steele ($8,500) is the guy. That's because despite what's likely to be a committee backfield with Samaje Perine, he's the most likely guy to get goal line carries, which could lead to multiple touchdowns if everything shakes out right. Steele's touchdown odds are set at +135 whereas Perine sits at +300. The uncertain workload leaves a shaky floor for Steele, but that's exactly what makes him an ideal contrarian option.

Flex Targets

Travis Kelce ($12,000) -- Kelce leads Kansas City pass-catchers in route rate (80.3%), but it's translated to just a 14.6% target share. He's scored just six FanDuel points total so far. Better games should be ahead, but I'm hesitant to put him back in the MVP mix until he proves otherwise.

Samaje Perine ($10,500) -- There's absolutely a scenario where it's Perine who ends up with the lead role in the Chiefs' backfield, and if nothing else, he's expected to be the pass-catching back. Our projections give him the slight edge over Steele, which is something to consider when figuring out who to prioritize.

Kyle Pitts ($10,000) -- Pitts saw his route rate go from 96.4% in the opening week to 71.0% in Week 2. He's seen just seven total targets, and other than his Week 1 touchdown, there's been nothing exciting about his production. Even so, he's still projected for 6.5 targets, and it's too early to totally give up on him.

Xavier Worthy ($9,500) -- In terms of routes (68.9%), Worthy is clearly the third option behind Rice and Kelce, and an up-and-down campaign could be ahead after posting 19.8 and 3.2 FanDuel points. His blazing speed should lead to plenty of spike weeks, though.

Darnell Mooney ($9,500) -- Out Mooney's seven targets last week, six were 10+ air yards, resulting in a whopping 48.1% air yards share. He has a 96.6% route rate through both games and figures to be an intriguing boom-or-bust option if he keeps being utilized as a deep threat.

Harrison Butker ($9,000) -- Both kickers will benefit from kicking in a dome. Butker gets the slight edge kicking for the team with the higher implied team total (24.75).

Ray-Ray McCloud ($7,500) -- McCloud went from a 64.3% route rate in Week 1 to 96.8% in Week 2, placing him right alongside London and Mooney as a starter. It looks like he's not going anywhere, and he's Atlanta's surprise leader in target share (23.1%). At this salary, he's a no-brainer value.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.