Single-Game NFL DFS Picks: Sunday Night (Bills at Ravens)

We should have a good one on our hands tonight between a pair of AFC contenders with Super Bowl aspirations. The Baltimore Ravens have gotten off to a slow start but still find themselves as 2.5-point home favorites over the undefeated Buffalo Bills, per the NFL odds on FanDuel Sportsbook.

For those unfamiliar, single-game slates feature five flex spots with identical scoring to the main slate. However, kickers are included in these contests, and there is an "MVP" roster slot. The MVP receives 1.5 times his total fantasy points, making this spot crucial.

FanDuel Research's Brandon Gdula has done a deep dive on single-game strategy, and FanDuel Research has NFL DFS projections if you select the game from the slate tab. It's worth checking out both before making your lineups.

All NFL projections via our numbers at FanDuel Research, and NFL odds references are to FanDuel Sportsbook.

NFL DFS Single-Game Picks

MVP Candidates

Dual-threat quarterbacks Josh Allen ($17,000) and Lamar Jackson ($16,500) are the obvious top choices at MVP, and it comes as no surprise that they lead the way in our NFL DFS projections. Allen already has two performances with 30+ FanDuel points on his 2024 resume, and while Jackson hasn't quite reached that mark (yet), he's topped out at 28.1 points. If we're choosing just one, Allen arguably gets the nod due to Jackson having the tougher matchup against numberFire's top-ranked adjusted pass defense.

With the two signal-callers likely occupying the vast majority of lineups at MVP, just about any other option should have a lower roster percentage. That makes Derrick Henry ($14,500) an enticing play at the multiplier slot as Buffalo's stingy pass D could lead to Baltimore taking a run-heavy approach against the 28th-ranked adjusted rush defense. While Henry's usage is tied closely to game script, he's fresh off racking up 32.9 FanDuel points behind 27 adjusted opportunities (carries plus 2x targets), so the MVP-ceiling is there if Baltimore can maintain a lead as slight home favorites.

While James Cook ($14,000) is averaging just 19.7 adjusted opportunities, that's mostly due to Buffalo blowing out their last two opponents, and that shouldn't be a concern tonight. It's reasonable to expect him to get closer to the 25 adjusted opportunities he saw in Week 1. Even with Cook seeing fewer opportunities the last two weeks, it hasn't exactly hurt his production as he's rattled off 28.0 and 16.7 FanDuel points. Despite the presence of Allen, Cook has seen 50% of the rushes inside the 10-yard line, which is encouraging, as well. Baltimore is fifth in adjusted rush defense, though, so it's not a great matchup.

Realistically, it's going to be difficult for a pass-catcher to emerge as the MVP. The Bills really spread their targets around while the Ravens' WRs are up against a defense that's allowed the second-fewest FanDuel points per target to the position. Baltimore wideout Zay Flowers ($12,000) has far and away the best usage between the two squads, though, owning a 29.1% target share, 27.9% air yards share, and 30.0% red zone target share. He scored a season-high 18.6 FanDuel points in Week 2 versus the Las Vegas Raiders.

Flex Targets

Khalil Shakir ($11,000) -- Shakir seems to have the most consistent role in the Buffalo passing attack with a 19.7% target share, but his 9.9% air yards share makes it much tougher for him to produce a spike week.

Dalton Kincaid ($10,500) -- Kincaid finally cracked double-digit FanDuel points last week after catching 3 of 5 targets for 41 yards and a TD. Most notably, four of those targets went 10+ air yards, which was a breath of fresh air compared to the low-aDOT work from the previous two games. He's projected for a team-best 7.1 targets, and that isn't outlandish in a non-blowout.

Mark Andrews ($10,000) -- While Lamar Jackson attempted just 15 passes in Week 3, it's still alarming Andrews was held to only a 33.3% snap rate and 23.5% route rate. His 9.3% target share for the season is a far cry from the elite usage we're used to seeing. I'm not sure he should be completely out of your player pool, but it's difficult to get on board at this salary.

Isaiah Likely ($9,500) -- Following his head-turning Week 1 performance, Likely has seen just four targets over his last two, resulting in 3.6 and 0.9 FanDuel points. Given what we saw in the opening week, he's theoretically a boom-or-bust play, but it wouldn't be shocking if he has another quiet game if Baltimore opts for a run-heavy game plan.

Justin Tucker ($9,000) and Tyler Bass ($9,000) -- Considering this matchup doesn't project to be particularly pass-heavy, there's a reasonable chance it doesn't turn into a shootout, which would make it easier for a kicker to crack the optimal lineup.

Keon Coleman ($8,000) -- Coleman was benched for the first quarter in Week 3, but even with that factored in, it's disappointing that he's seen just two targets across the last two games. Coming into the night with just a 9.9% target share, the rookie might just be a touchdown-or-bust option until he proves otherwise.

Justice Hill ($8,000) -- If the Ravens find themselves in a negative game script, that will lead to Hill getting more opportunities as the pass-catching running back. Baltimore trailed the Kansas City Chiefs for the majority of their Week 1 loss, and that led to Hill earning 17 adjusted opportunities.

Rashod Bateman ($7,500) -- Bateman has a 15.1% target share, 31.8% air yards share, and 76.9% air yards share. The matchup may not be appealing, but that usage will play at this salary.

Mack Hollins ($7,000) -- While Hollins has five total targets this season, which is tough to get jazzed about, he's actually second among Bills pass-catchers in route rate (64.7%). That's significantly higher than other fringe options such as Dawson Knox (37.6%), Marquez Valdes-Scantling (31.8%), or Curtis Samuel (28.2%).

Opt-in to the Gronk Profit Spike and apply a 50% Profit Boost on an Anytime Touchdown Scorer wager on NFL games happening September 29th! See here for full terms and conditions. Learn about today’s other offers at FanDuel Sportsbook Promos.

Interested in playing NFL DFS? Head over to FanDuel’s daily fantasy football lobby to see all the offerings for this week's slates.

Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook and FanDuel Daily Fantasy today!

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.