Single-Game NFL DFS Picks: Monday Night (Saints at Chiefs)

Week 5 closes with the New Orleans Saints facing the Kansas City Chiefs on Monday Night Football. The Chiefs are 5.5-point home favorites, and the over/under comes in at 43.5, per the NFL odds on FanDuel Sportsbook.

For those unfamiliar, single-game slates feature five flex spots with identical scoring to the main slate. However, kickers are included in these contests, and there is an "MVP" roster slot. The MVP receives 1.5 times his total fantasy points, making this spot crucial.

FanDuel Research's Brandon Gdula has done a deep dive on single-game strategy, and FanDuel Research has NFL DFS projections if you select the game from the slate tab. It's worth checking out both before making your lineups.

All NFL projections via our numbers at FanDuel Research, and NFL odds references are to FanDuel Sportsbook.

NFL DFS Single-Game Picks

MVP Candidates

Despite the New Orleans offense cooling off considerably after its hot start, Alvin Kamara ($17,000) continues to be a gem in fantasy behind one of the NFL's most voluminous roles. Kamara is averaging 30.0 adjusted opportunities (carries plus 2x targets) per game with a 69.5% snap rate, and he's turned that into 134.0 scrimmage yards per game. He's also logging a 53.1% red zone rush share, which will further get a boost with Taysom Hill (rib) and his 11.1% red zone rush share out of the mix. Kamara has scored 19.5, 46.0, 14.2, and 21.4 FanDuel points thus far, and even against a KC defense that's allowed the fewest FanDuel points per game to RBs, he's a top MVP option. Of course, with the electric numbers he's putting up, he'll also be quite popular.

Patrick Mahomes ($16,000) is getting top billing in our NFL DFS projections, but he's yet to hit 18 FanDuel points over four games and now has to deal with Rashee Rice (injured reserve) out for the foreseeable future. Making matters worse, he's facing a Saints defense that's fifth in schedule-adjusted pass defense, per numberFire, and has given up the fourth-fewest FanDuel points to QBs. While it would be foolish to ever write off Mahomes completely, he might be someone to consider lowering exposure to at MVP, particularly at what should still be a high roster percentage.

With Rice getting hurt early In Week 4, Travis Kelce ($13,000) logged team-highs in route rate (91.2%), target share (32.1%), and air yards share (40.4%). He's back to being Mahomes' clear-cut No. 1 option pretty much by default ahead of a thin wideout room. The tight end position has been in a sorry state this season, but Kelce will have his share of spike weeks if he continues to see this kind of usage. I don't think he'll see as much attention as Kamara and Mahomes at MVP, making him an appealing candidate.

It feels weird to list Kareem Hunt ($12,000) in 2024, but here we are. While Hunt led the Kansas City backfield with 20 adjusted opportunities last week, this is still a committee between him (43.1% snap rate), Samaje Perine (41.4%), and Carson Steele (19.0%). We have to acknowledge that this backfield could turn into a weekly headache, but for the time being, Hunt looks like the lead back. The Saints are 20th in adjusted rush defense, and the Rice injury could further push the Chiefs toward running the football.

Chris Olave ($13,500) and Rashid Shaheed ($10,000) are soaking up exactly half the Saints' targets. Olave has a 24.5% target share, 31.3% air yards share, and 2.79 yards per route run. Shaheed's at a 25.5% target share, 48.5% air yards share, and 2.74 yards per route run. The Chiefs are 20th in adjusted pass defense, and Shaheed is especially intriguing as an MVP who might go slightly overlooked at just the eighth-highest salary.

Flex Targets

Derek Carr ($14,500) -- Carr deserves some fringe MVP consideration, but he's dropped below double-digit points in two straight weeks, and the Saints are dealing with a banged-up offensive line. Kansas City's defense should be able to generate pressure, leaving Carr in a tough spot to post a big score.

Xavier Worthy ($11,000) -- Worthy was second in route rate (79.4%) behind Kelce last week and is the most likely wideout to carve out a bigger role with Rice out. However, he still saw just a 14.3% target share and is at 13.4% on the season. His speed makes him a threat to put up big points on just one or two deep catches, but he's still looking like a boom-or-bust play unless the usage improves.

Justin Watson ($9,500) and JuJu Smith-Schuster ($7,000) -- In Week 4, Watson was third in route rate for K.C. (67.6%), and JuJu was fourth (47.1%). Both are projected for roughly three targets apiece and probably won't move the needle much without a touchdown.

Blake Grupe ($9,000) and Harrison Butker ($9,000) -- With both offenses trending downward, we might see the under hit in this matchup, which could give the kickers a better chance at the optimal lineup. Butker has the better projection as the home favorite.

Kansas City D/ST ($8,500) -- The Chiefs have a high pressure rate, and can take advantage of the Saints' o-line injuries. Carr has taken only four sacks this year, but he has thrown a pick in three straight games.

Samaje Perine ($8,000) and Carson Steele ($8,000) -- Perine saw roughly double the snaps of Steele last week, as Steele was phased out of the game plan following an early fumble. Although Perine saw just five adjusted opportunities, he's worth a chance in case he splits touches more evenly with Hunt tonight. Steele is a mere dice roll but could still have a role after being the lead back in Week 3.

Juwan Johnson ($7,500) -- Johnson saw a season-high 60.5% route rate with Taysom Hill getting hurt in Week 4. He's on the touchdown-or-bust radar.

Noah Gray ($7,000) -- Gray recorded a 51.7% snap rate and 32.4% route rate last week but still saw 4 targets, which was as many as Worthy. He's worth a shot at this salary.

Mason Tipton ($5,500) -- While Tipton has five targets total this year, his route rate bumped up to 57.9% in his last game. At this practically free salary, you can really load up on the other four slots.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.