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Single-Game NFL DFS Picks: Monday Night (Ravens at Buccaneers)

Kenyatta Storin
Kenyatta Storin@KenyattaStorin

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Single-Game NFL DFS Picks: Monday Night (Ravens at Buccaneers)

We're being treated to a pair of Monday night games, and the first one should be a good one between the Baltimore Ravens and Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 8:15 pm ET. The Ravens are 3.5-point road favorites, and the matchup features a 49.5 over/under, per the NFL odds on FanDuel Sportsbook.

For those unfamiliar, single-game slates feature five flex spots with identical scoring to the main slate. However, kickers are included in these contests, and there is an "MVP" roster slot. The MVP receives 1.5 times his total fantasy points, making this spot crucial.

FanDuel Research's Brandon Gdula has done a deep dive on single-game strategy, and FanDuel Research has NFL DFS projections if you select the game from the slate tab. It's worth checking out both before making your lineups.

All NFL projections via our numbers at FanDuel Research, and NFL odds references are to FanDuel Sportsbook.

NFL DFS Single-Game Picks

MVP Candidates

Lamar Jackson ($17,000) is averaging 25.2 FanDuel points per game, and it isn't the least bit surprising that he's pegged for the slate's most points in our NFL DFS projections. In addition to his rushing potential every week, he ranks among the NFL's best in expected points added per drop back (0.19), per NFL Next Gen Stats. The only downside will be his inevitable popularity at MVP.

Derrick Henry ($16,500) will also get plenty of attention in the multiplier slot. While Henry is game-script dependent and averaging a non-elite 22.5 adjusted opportunities (carries plus 2x targets) per game, he's logged 27, 30, and 24 adjusted opportunities in the games Baltimore led the majority of the time. He scored 28+ FanDuel points in those three instances, and a spike week is certainly possible as a road favorite against a Tampa D that's 30th in schedule-adjusted pass defense by numberFire's metrics.

Few expected Baker Mayfield ($14,500) to be averaging 24.4 FanDuel points as the overall QB2 behind Lamar through six weeks, but here we are. While Mayfield isn't likely to sustain a 7.9% touchdown rate all season, he boasts the best passing success rate (53.6%) among NFL starters and has been above average in expected points added per drop back (0.07). The Ravens are 27th in adjusted pass defense, so Baker has a clear path to leading the slate in scoring.

Chris Godwin ($12,500) and Mike Evans ($13,000) continue to hog roughly half the targets in Tampa's passing attack, making them MVP possibilities if you want to avoid the super popular choices. Godwin is arguably the preferred option, as he has the edge in target share (28.2% to 22.3%) and yards per route run (2.73 to 1.81), and Evans is also dealing with a hamstring issue despite no injury designation. Evans does lead the team in both air yards (44.2%) and end zone target share (53.3%), though, so he still has plenty of upside in such a good matchup. Baltimore has given up the most FanDuel points per game to WRs.

The Ravens' run-heavy attack often leaves scraps for their pass catchers, but Zay Flowers ($11,500) is the one guy we can count on to pop here and there, leading the team with a 28.2% target share. He's recorded 100+ yards in back-to-back games and could notch another one if this game turns into a shootout.

Flex Targets

Bucky Irving ($10,500), Rachaad White ($10,000), and Sean Tucker ($8,000) -- The Bucs are reportedly taking the dreaded "hot hand" approach with their backfield, and Baltimore has allowed the third-fewest FanDuel points per game to RBs. White is technically questionable but got a full practice in on Saturday, and he projects for the most points in our model, followed by Irving and then Tucker. Ultimately, this looks like a headache that could result in none of them cracking the optimal lineup.

Justin Tucker ($9,500) and Chase McLaughlin ($9,500) -- With offensive firepower on both sides and the total hovering close to 50 points, this doesn't feel like the slate to prioritize the kickers, but double-digit FanDuel points wouldn't be shocking for either one.

Isaiah Likely ($9,000) and Mark Andrews ($9,000) -- Likely has run more routes than Andrews in four straight games, but it was closer to even in Week 6 (53.1% to 50.0%), and they each saw 4 targets apiece. Although the former probably still has the edge as the more utilized tight end overall this year, the floor remains low for both.

Rashod Bateman ($8,000) -- Bateman doesn't have an amazing role, but he's a more reliable option than the Baltimore tight ends and has a lower salary to boot. He's second on the team in route rate (74.6%) and target share (15.3%), and he projects for 4.4 targets.

Cade Otton ($7,500) -- Otton's 77.9% route rate puts him in the same range as Godwin and Evans, and he's sporting a solid 16.5% target share. He's one of the better value plays.

Justice Hill ($7,500) -- Hill is averaging 10.3 adjusted opportunities per game with a 45.5% snap rate. As the pass-catching back, he's more likely to move the needle in a scenario where Baltimore falls behind early.

Sterling Shepard ($7,000) -- Shepard is on the radar after logging a 67.5% route rate and 10.3% target share over the past three games.


Get ready for Monday Night Football! All customers get a 30% Profit Boost Token for a 3+ leg SGP on either game happening October 21st! See here for full terms and conditions. Learn about today’s other offers at FanDuel Sportsbook Promos.

Interested in playing NFL DFS? Head over to FanDuel’s daily fantasy football lobby to see all the offerings for this week's slates.

Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook and FanDuel Daily Fantasy today!


The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.

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