Single-Game NFL DFS Picks: Monday Night (Commanders at Bengals)

The second game of Monday's doubleheader gets rolling at 8:15 pm ET between the Washington Commanders and Cincinnati Bengals. The Bengals are 7.5-point home favorites in a matchup sporting a 46.5 over/under.

For those unfamiliar, single-game slates feature five flex spots with identical scoring to the main slate. However, kickers are included in these contests, and there is an "MVP" roster slot. The MVP receives 1.5 times his total fantasy points, making this spot crucial.

FanDuel Research's Brandon Gdula has done a deep dive on single-game strategy, and FanDuel Research has NFL DFS projections if you select the game from the slate tab. It's worth checking out both before making your lineups.

All NFL projections via our numbers at FanDuel Research, and NFL odds references are to FanDuel Sportsbook.

NFL DFS Single-Game Picks

MVP Candidates

Ja'Marr Chase ($15,500) has a higher salary than either of the QBs in this matchup and has produced modest results -- but he might be my favorite MVP choice when factoring in roster percentages. Although he's logged a surprisingly low 17.5% target share, he leads Cincinnati pass-catchers in snap rate (88.1%) and route rate (86.8%). His receiving yardage prop line is set at a hefty 80.5 yards, and our NFL DFS projections see him reaching that mark off 9.7 targets. Washington is numberFire's 32nd-ranked adjusted pass defense and has coughed up 44.2 FanDuel points per game to wideouts.

This matchup naturally sets up for a potential spike week from Joe Burrow ($14,000), as well. Burrow has the slate's highest median projection and bounced back from a subpar Week 1 with 17.2 FanDuel points last week. The Commanders have also given up the most FanDuel points per game to QBs, and it's pretty safe to say Burrow is a step up in competition over Baker Mayfield and Daniel Jones.

Jayden Daniels ($15,000) still hasn't thrown his first NFL passing touchdown, but his rushing upside was on full display in Week 1 after he racked up 88 yards and 2 rushing scores on his way to 28.2 FanDuel points. He was held out of the end zone last week due to Washington failing to convert numerous opportunities in opposing territory -- resulting in a whopping seven field goals -- which suggests that he may not have been far off from another big game with a few more breaks going his way. As a sizable underdog, things could go south if the Commanders get down big, but anyone with Daniels' rushing ability is in the MVP mix.

Although Bengals running back Zack Moss ($12,000) has averaged just 10.5 carries and 2.5 targets per game, he's dominating backfield snaps (75.2%), and game script should benefit him greatly if Cincinnati gets out in front early. Moss has logged 83.3% of the red zone carries inside the 10-yard line, and he has -140 touchdown odds. The Commanders are fifth in adjusted rush defense, per numberFire, which could lead to a a pass-heavy approach for the Bengals, but there's definitely a scenario where Moss emerges with a slate-best score behind multiple touchdowns near the goal line.

On the other hand, game script could work against Washington's Brian Robinson ($13,000), and he's also splitting snaps with Austin Ekeler. Still, he's dominating opportunities with 14.5 rushes and 3.5 targets per game, and he's turned that into 89 and 136 scrimmage yards. Robinson has a tougher path to touchdowns because of Daniels and Ekeler, but his production is encouraging if this game remains competitive.

Flex Targets

Tee Higgins ($12,500) -- Higgins will make his 2024 debut after missing the first two weeks, and he has no injury designation. It's hard to predict how his snaps and production will play out, making him a wild card despite the ideal matchup. For what it's worth, his receiving yardage prop line is set at 44.5 yards, and our model projects him for 6.9 targets.

Austin Ekeler ($11,000) -- Given his history as a pass-catching RB, Ekeler theoretically could see a bump in volume through a negative game script, but Brian Robinson has run slightly more routes (34.2% to 30.0%), and the two have an identical target share (13.7%). Overall, Ekeler has recorded 5.0 carries and 3.5 targets per game with a 46.3% snap rate, keeping him in play as a flex.

Terry McLaurin ($10,500) -- McLaurin remains Washington's top wideout, leading the way in route rate (72.9%), target share (21.6%), and air yards share (45.4%), but it's resulted in little due to Daniels averaging just 25.5 pass attempts with a 4.6-yard aDOT. While he projects for roughly seven targets, he desperately needs Daniels to take more shots downfield.

Mike Gesicki ($10,000) -- Gesicki is a weird case, as he was mostly invisible in Week 1 but then caught 7 of 9 targets for 91 yards last week. Despite the big outing, he still logged just a 51.2% route rate, and the return of Higgins could further hurt his chances. He could still be worth rolling the dice with in case some of last week sticks.

Zach Ertz ($9,500) -- Ertz is second on Washington in route rate (65.7%) and target share (15.7%). He doesn't project for a notable day, but he did catch 4 of 4 targets for a team-high 62 yards last week.

Andrei Iosivas ($9,500) -- Iosivas is presumably taking the biggest hit in usage by Higgins being active. While he caught two TDs last week, he managed only 33 yards across two games despite an 84.2% route rate.

Evan McPherson ($9,000) and Austin Seibert ($9,000) -- On paper, McPherson is the kicker to target on the home favorite, but Seibert did just hit seven fields goals on his way to 22 FanDuel points last week. While we're not expecting Seibert to do that again, if Washington fails to convert in the red zone again, he could find himself heavily involved.

Cincinnati Bengals D/ST ($8,500) -- In a scenario where the Commanders are down multiple scores and need to rely on their rookie QB's arm, the Cincinnati defense could be in line to capitalize on sacks and mistakes.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.