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Single-Game NFL DFS Picks: Monday Night (Chargers at Cardinals)

Kenyatta Storin
Kenyatta Storin@KenyattaStorin

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Single-Game NFL DFS Picks: Monday Night (Chargers at Cardinals)

The second of tonight's two primetime games will feature the Los Angeles Chargers visiting the Arizona Cardinals with kickoff set for 9:00 pm ET. The Chargers are 1.5-point road favorites, and the matchup as a 44.5 over/under, per the NFL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

For those unfamiliar, single-game slates feature five flex spots with identical scoring to the main slate. However, kickers are included in these contests, and there is an "MVP" roster slot. The MVP receives 1.5 times his total fantasy points, making this spot crucial.

FanDuel Research's Brandon Gdula has done a deep dive on single-game strategy, and FanDuel Research has NFL DFS projections if you select the game from the slate tab. It's worth checking out both before making your lineups.

All NFL projections via our numbers at FanDuel Research, and NFL odds references are to FanDuel Sportsbook.

NFL DFS Single-Game Picks

MVP Candidates

Kyler Murray ($16,500) is showing the top median score in our NFL DFS projections, but he's produced up-and-down results, dropping below 16 FanDuel points in four games while also exceeding 25 points in two others. Although he's averaging 43.5 rushing yards per game, his 16.0% red zone rush share makes him less likely to cash in on TDs with his legs like some of his dual-threat brethren. This isn't an easy matchup against a team that's 10th in schedule-adjusted pass defense (per numberFire), but pass rusher Joey Bosa is doubtful, which should help.

With Gus Edwards on injured reserve, J.K. Dobbins ($14,500) logged 29 adjusted opportunities (carries plus 2x targets) for 102 scrimmage yards in Week 6, making him an enticing MVP candidate versus the 28th-ranked adjusted rush defense. He also saw 80% of the red zone carries. Dobbins' rushing plus receiving yards prop line is set at 98.5.

J.K. Dobbins - Rushing + Receiving Yds

J.K. Dobbins Over
@
J.K. Dobbins Under
Oct 22 1:00am UTCMore odds in Sportsbook

Justin Herbert ($14,000) has the slate's second-best projection but hasn't hit even 14 FanDuel points in a game playing in an offense that's 31st in plays per game and 28th in pass rate over expectation. While he's probably good for just a flex-level performance, it's worth noting Arizona is 28th in adjusted pass defense and has allowed the 4th-most FanDuel points per game to opposing QBs.

James Conner ($15,000) played just 29.1% of the snaps in last week's blowout loss to the Green Bay Packers, but that shouldn't be a concern tonight. Overall, he's averaged 20 adjusted opportunities with a 61.2% snap rate and 68.0% red zone rush share over six games. Conner should be back to a sizable workload in what should be a more favorable game script, but he'll also have to deal with a defense that's given up the second-fewest FanDuel points per games to running backs.

Marvin Harrison Jr. ($12,500) cleared the concussion protocol and has seen a 25.4% target share, 43.2% air yards share, and 28.6% red zone target share over his five healthy games. While we haven't seen a spectacular result from Harrison since Week 2 (30 FanDuel points), the role remains encouraging.

Ladd McConkey ($10,000) is questionable, but assuming he's active, he comes in with a 26.4% target share and 33.9% air yards share. Although he'll need Herbert to throw more than usual to have any chance at a slate-best score, Arizona has given up the most FanDuel points per target to WRs. He's projected for the game's most targets (8.7), too.

Flex Targets

Trey McBride ($12,000) -- McBride has a 25.7% target share, and his receiving yardage prop line (50.5) isn't far off from Harrison's (53.5). Both players are projected for roughly seven targets, as well.

Michael Wilson ($11,000) -- In five games with Harrison healthy, Wilson has seen an 18.8% target share and 80.2% route rate. He's the No. 3 option behind Harrison and McBride.

Greg Dortch ($9,500) and Zay Jones ($8,000) -- Dortch has a 64.1% route rate and 15.9% target share, but Jones is expected to make his 2024 debut after being activated from suspension last week and practicing in full. Jones could be worth a dart throw at his salary in case he immediately eats into Dortch's role.

Cameron Dicker ($9,000) and Chad Ryland ($9,000) -- In a game where we could see under 44.5 points hit, the kickers could end up being valuable. Dicker is more experienced and on the favored side, giving him the better projected output.

Josh Palmer ($8,000), Will Dissly ($7,000), and Simi Fehoko ($6,000) -- With both wideout Quentin Johnston and tight end Hayden Hurst listed as doubtful, these three should be the lead pass catchers behind McConkey. Palmer projects for 6.4 targets while Dissly and Fehoko are hovering around 4.0 each. In a run-heavy offense, none of them figure to end up on the optimal lineup without a touchdown.

Kimani Vidal ($7,500) -- In his NFL debut, Vidal logged 8 adjusted opportunities and a 24.0% snap rate, and he even secured his first TD on his way to 12.1 FanDuel points. He's a longshot to duplicate that effort as long as Dobbins is healthy, but the salary is low enough to take a chance in a few lineups.

Emari Demercado ($7,500) -- While Demercado deserves a mention after leading the Arizona backfield with a 52.7% snap rate last week, that almost certainly had to do with a negative game script in a blowout loss. We probably won't see that tonight, but it's something to keep in mind if you think the Chargers roll.


Get ready for Monday Night Football! All customers get a 30% Profit Boost Token for a 3+ leg SGP on either game happening October 21st! See here for full terms and conditions. Learn about today’s other offers at FanDuel Sportsbook Promos.

Interested in playing NFL DFS? Head over to FanDuel’s daily fantasy football lobby to see all the offerings for this week's slates.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.

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