Singapore Grand Prix Win Simulations: Is Sergio Perez Fully Back?

Over the summer, Sergio Perez's job security was the talk of the paddock.

Not only were Perez's poor qualifying efforts preventing him from pushing for wins, but Daniel Ricciardo was primed for a half-season audition at AlphaTauri to see whether he could regain his old form.

But now, just two races after the summer break, it's looking more and more like Perez is back.

Perez previously would be in a tier of other drivers in my pre-practice win simulations, fighting the crowd for second place behind Max Verstappen. But entering Singapore, Perez is the clear runner-up.

Here's the full run of sims prior to practice on Friday.

One quick note on the sims: I think they're too high on Ferrari. They had great speed in Monza, but Singapore is about as far from fitting Ferrari's current car as possible. Charles Leclerc and Carlos Sainz will look like values in FanDuel Sportsbook's Formula 1 betting odds for Singapore, but it's not value I'm willing to take, personally.

Perez is different, though. He's exactly in line with his betting odds of +1100 to win and -175 to podium. If FanDuel were to offer a "Winner Without Verstappen" market, I'd have Perez at 42.7% (+134 as fair odds) even with the model being higher on Ferrari than it should be. He may be able to put those job security discussions to bed soon.

The one value I do find enticing is on Alpine's drivers, Pierre Gasly and Esteban Ocon. Gasly podiumed at Zandvoort two races ago, and there's more overlap between that track and Singapore than what we had in Monza. It showed the upside they possess on this track type.

Both drivers are +1100 to finish top six at FanDuel. I've got Gasly 11.4% and Ocon at 9.3%, both above their implied odds of 8.3%. If we don't wind up being able to bet Perez without Verstappen, this would be my favorite route to action on Singapore before we see cars on track.

Have a driver who you think will run well in Singapore? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook's latest Formula 1 betting odds to see where the market is on them.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.