Should You Target Dallas Goedert in the Middle Rounds?

The tight end position is a tricky one to nail down for fantasy football.

In recent years, the two best courses of action have either been going with a high-investment approach (i.e. drafting Travis Kelce early) or waiting until the later rounds in hopes of finding a gem and streaming the in-season waiver wire if needed.

Middle-round tight ends can sometimes have a tough road to returning value at their average draft positions (ADP). The tight ends that find themselves with those mid-round ADPs are usually super talented, but the floor for production at the position is so low that drafting them there can be a losing proposition. It only takes one or two little things to go wrong for them to end up producing like their late-round counterparts.

Those warnings aside, Philadelphia Eagles tight end Dallas Goedert is set to buck that trend in 2023. He was an underrated focal point of the Eagles' elite offense last season and has a legitimate shot at putting up high-end fantasy numbers in the upcoming year.

With a consensus ADP coming in at pick 68 on average, he is set to smash at his sixth-round ADP.

Dallas Goedert Fantasy Football Projections

All projections via numberFire.com.

Positional Ranking: TE7

Projected Stats:

• 92.9 targets
• 63.7 receptions
• 723.3 receiving yards
• 4.51 receiving touchdowns

Dallas Goedert Fantasy Football Outlook

Lean, Mean Efficiency

Goedert's efficiency and consistency since entering the league has gone relatively under the radar.

He had a modest rookie campaign while playing behind target-hog Zach Ertz, but in the four seasons since, he's averaged a 17-game pace of 69 receptions, 854 yards, and 5 touchdowns.

That's quite a bit more than what numberFire has him projected for, though the reasons for that suppressed projection aren't too difficult to glean. He has to compete for targets with A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith, two of the best wideouts in the game today.

But Goedert has dealt with competition (like Ertz) in previous editions of the Eagles' passing attack and made the most of his opportunities. He's developed into one of the most efficient tight ends in the game on a per-target basis, with over 10 yards per target in each of the last two campaigns.

Even this past year, while playing alongside Brown and Smith, Goedert still managed a solid 58.5 receiving yards per game. That number may seem modest when lined up side-by-side with his teammates' 88.0- and 70.4-yard marks, respectively, but across the tight end position, only TE1 Travis Kelce fared better (78.7).

Goedert finished the 2022 season with 55 catches for 702 yards and 3 touchdowns in just 12 games. If he can stay healthy for a full season, he may be the second-most likely tight end to break 1,000 receiving yards this season behind Kelce.

Eagles-Wide Regression

There's no denying the fact that the Eagles boasted one of the strongest offenses in the league last year. Only Kelce's Kansas City Chiefs put more points on the scoreboard than Philly last year. That makes it a little surprising that Goedert finished the season with just three total touchdowns.

Despite all of the points they scored, the Eagles finished the year with 25 passing touchdowns in a season where the league average was 23.4. In other words, they scored a ton of points through the rushing game.

The biggest culprit of those rushing scores was none other than quarterback Jalen Hurts himself, who punched in 13 rushing touchdowns while handling an insane 20 carries inside the opposing 5-yard line. Hurts and "the tush push" were nigh unstoppable last year.

But the Eagles' scoring could sway naturally toward the passing game in 2023 after their extreme skew toward the run last year.

For fantasy tight ends, a single touchdown can mean the difference between a TE50 and a TE3 weekly finish due to how few yards most catch on average. If the Eagles' passing game chucks a few more touchdowns Goedert's way, he could vault up the fantasy tight end leaderboards in a flash.

A Proven Producer at a Shaky Position

That Goedert was such a valuable contributor at the position with only three touchdowns last season illustrates just how high his weekly floor can be. If your name is next to Kelce's on a tight end leaderboard (like in yards per game), you're likely doing something right.

One of the biggest secrets to Goedert's success last year was his heavy usage in the screen game. His 21 screen pass targets were the 12th-most in the NFL despite him missing five games.

The Eagles were smart to use him in that capacity, too, because he rewarded the team with elite efficiency on those opportunities. His 2.83 yards per route run on screens was one of the league's top marks (8th) and was mostly only bested by other teams' top gadget players like Kadarius Toney , Devin Duvernay, and Chigoziem Okonkwo.

His involvement in the screen game gives Goedert a massive edge over his competition due to its ability to boost his yardage floor each and every week. Very few tight ends see as many designed looks as Goedert, and that's something we can take advantage of in fantasy football.

Putting it all Together

With Goedert, we have a hyper-efficient player at a tough-to-fill position in fantasy.

He plays on one of the most potent offenses in the NFL and could find himself with even more scoring opportunities in 2023. His team places a priority on keeping him involved with a high volume of designed touches, buoying his weekly fantasy floor above those of his peers.

He's set up to produce fantasy points like some of the league's biggest names this year and yet is available in the sixth rounds of drafts. He's a smash pick at that ADP.

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.