FanDuel NFL DFS Picks: Week 12
The time has come to turn our attention to the Week 12 NFL DFS main slate on FanDuel. Just as a reminder, FanDuel's DFS main slate now includes the Sunday night game and players are rewarded bonus points for achieving certain yardage thresholds.
While factoring the changes to NFL DFS on FanDuel, some players have an edge over others in the upcoming contests around the league.
Using our NFL DFS projections as a guide, let's take a look at some of the best daily fantasy football plays at each position -- accounting for salary -- on the Week 12 FanDuel main slate.
NFL DFS Picks for Week 12
Slate Overview
Here is a snapshot of each team's outlook, including opponent, implied team total, over/under, and spread based on the NFL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Quarterbacks
Jayden Daniels, Commanders
FanDuel Salary: $9,000
Matchup: vs. DAL
While Jayden Daniels hasn't produced 20-plus FanDuel points (FDPs) since Week 8, this week's matchup against the Dallas Cowboys is a perfect chance for the rookie signal-caller to get back on track. The Cowboys are allowing the third-most passing FDPs per drop back (0.53) and fifth-most FDPs per game to QBs (20.5), via NextGenStats, while our projections have Daniels finishing with the second-most FDPs of the QBs on the main slate (20.7).
Jayden Daniels - Passing + Rushing Yds
Bo Nix, Broncos
FanDuel Salary: $8,000
Matchup: at LV
Bo Nix has been the QB4 or better in DFS for two of his last four outings, and the Denver Broncos have climbed to ninth in pass rate over expected (-0.5%) as the first-year QB has gotten more comfortable in Sean Payton's offense. Meanwhile, the Las Vegas Raiders are 30th in schedule-adjusted pass defense, and are giving up the 8th-most FDPs per game to QBs (19.0).
Others to Consider
Baker Mayfield ($7,900 at NYG) - Mayfield is averaging the second-most FDPs per game of the QBs on the main slate (23.2), and he's expected to get Mike Evans ($8,000) back in Week 12. Despite double-digit winds being in the forecast for Sunday's contest, the New York Giants are 30th in deep yards per target allowed (12.8) and 29th in completion percentage over expected allowed (+0.03%).
Kyler Murray ($7,800 at SEA) - Before the Arizona Cardinals had their bye in Week 11, Kyler was heating up with 21-plus FDPs in three of his previous four starts. Sunday's Cardinals-Seattle Seahawks clash has the third-fastest pace of the matchups this week, and Murray possesses a solid floor and ceiling due to his rushing production.
Tua Tagovailoa ($7,700 vs. NE) - The Miami Dolphins are tied for the third-highest implied total (27.0) of the teams playing on Sunday, making Tua arguably my favorite play at QB when accounting for salary. Besides the New England Patriots being 24th in schedule-adjusted pass defense, they are permitting the 10th-most passing FDPs per drop back (0.48) while sitting at 24th in pressure rate (31.5%).
Running Backs
De'Von Achane, Dolphins
FanDuel Salary: $9,100
Matchup: vs. NE
De'Von Achane has been fantastic in the six games with Tua active, scoring 18-plus FDPs in five of them. I don't mind stacking Achane with Tagovailoa as the dynamic RB is logging the second-highest target share (19.4%) and the most yards per route run (2.38) on the Dolphins in Tua's six starts this season.
De'Von Achane - Rushing Yds
Brian Robinson Jr., Commanders
FanDuel Salary: $7,900
Matchup: vs. DAL
Following a two-game absence, Brian Robinson proceeded to post 13.7 FDPs against a stout Philadelphia Eagles defense in Week 11 as he led the Washington Commanders' RBs in snap rate (54.0%), red-zone rushing share (66.7%), and carries (16). Robinson is now healthier entering a favorable matchup versus a Dallas defense that is coughing up the second-most rushing TDs (13) and third-most FDPs per game (25.4) to RBs.
James Conner, Cardinals
FanDuel Salary: $7,700
Matchup: at SEA
Along with James Conner notching 16-plus FDPs in three of his last four games, the veteran RB is fifth in yards after contact per attempt (3.49) and has tallied the most missed tackles forced (49) of RBs who have 100-plus attempts this season, per PFF. Those metrics should come in handy for Conner against a Seattle D that is 27th in schedule-adjusted run defense and is allowing the second-most rushing yards over expected per attempt to RBs (0.99).
Others to Consider
Bucky Irving ($6,800 at NYG) - The only team giving up more rushing yards over expected per attempt to RBs than the Seahawks is the Giants (1.24). While Irving is splitting touches with Rachaad White ($6,900), he's been the more explosive back all season, and has still achieved 15-plus FDPs in three of his last five contests.
Tyrone Tracy Jr. ($6,700 vs. TB) - With Tommy DeVito ($6,000) starting at QB for New York, I expect the G-Men to lean on Tracy and the ground game. Tampa Bay's defense is typically rock solid against the run under Todd Bowles, but they are permitting the seventh-most FDPs per game to the RB position (22.2).
Rhamondre Stevenson ($6,400 at MIA) - Stevenson has averaged 24 adjusted opportunities (carries plus 2x targets) and 71.3 scrimmage yards per game with a 74.8% snap rate, 50.3% route rate, and 69.2% red-zone rushing share across the last four weeks. The volume makes me interested in Stevenson at this salary, and the way to attack Miami's defense is via the ground as they are ceding the fifth-most rushing yards over expected per attempt (0.71) and ninth-most FDPs per game to RBs (21.9).
Wide Receivers
Amon-Ra St. Brown, Lions
FanDuel Salary: $9,500
Matchup: at IND
The Indianapolis Colts have the highest zone-coverage rate (85.6%) in the NFL, which favors Amon-Ra St. Brown tremendously whenever the Detroit Lions elect to put the ball in Jared Goff's ($8,500) hands. According to PFF, St. Brown leads Detroit's offense in target rate (27.2%) and yards per route run (2.54) against zone coverage, and he's coming off a season-high 36.2 FDPs in Week 11.
Tyreek Hill, Dolphins
FanDuel Salary: $8,300
Matchup: vs. NE
For the first time this season, Tyreek Hill has scored a TD in back-to-back weeks, and we all know the slate-breaking upside he possesses when Tua is under center for the Dolphins. On top of that, New England's defense is allowing the 3rd-highest target rate (21.6%), 3rd-most yards per route run (1.81), and 11th-most FDPs per game to WRs (28.3).
Terry McLaurin, Commanders
FanDuel Salary: $7,800
Matchup: vs. DAL
Terry McLaurin logged a season-low 1.5 FDPs in Week 11 versus the Eagles, but the Cowboys present a much better matchup through the air for the Commanders. Along with McLaurin still pacing Washington's offense in target share (22.1%), air yards share (42.4%), yards per route run (2.61), and average depth of target (14.7), Dallas is permitting the seventh-highest target rate (21.0%) and fourth-most yards per route run (1.79) to the WR position.
Others to Consider
Jaxon Smith-Njigba ($7,500 vs. ARI) - I spoke about JSN's improved usage down the field in my trends to know piece for Week 12, and he's now scored 19-plus FDPs in back-to-back weeks with 15 downfield targets (targets of 10-plus yards) across those two games. With the Seahawks sitting at third in pass rate over expected (+2.4%), Smith-Njigba should remain heavily involved against the Cardinals in a pivotal NFC West showdown.
Jauan Jennings ($6,700 at GB) - Jennings is under-salaried considering his role on the San Francisco 49ers as he's led San Fran's offense in target share (35.5%), air yards share (39.8%), and yards per route run (2.83) in the two games since he returned from injury. While the Green Bay Packers are ranked 12th in schedule-adjusted pass defense, Jennings has 11 targets in each of the last two weeks, resulting in him averaging 16.5 FDPs per game in that span.
DeAndre Hopkins ($6,500 at CAR) - This is a perfect week for Patrick Mahomes ($8,400) and Hopkins to improve their chemistry with the Carolina Panthers sitting at 31st in schedule-adjusted pass defense, and the Kansas City Chiefs boast the third-highest implied total (27.0) of the teams playing on Sunday. Despite having just a 14.3% target share since joining KC -- which is second on the team over the last four weeks -- Hopkins does lead the Chiefs in yards per route run (2.15) during that sample.
Jaylen Waddle ($5,900 vs. NE) - It's safe to say it's been a massively disappointing campaign for Waddle, but he's going to have a spike week soon, and I don't want to have zero exposure to him when it happens. Waddle is an easy stacking option with Tua at this salary while giving us a piece to Miami's offense in a stellar matchup at home.
Tight Ends
Trey McBride, Cardinals
FanDuel Salary: $6,700
Matchup: at SEA
While I do like Marvin Harrison Jr. ($7,200) as a stacking partner with Kyler, I may give the edge to Trey McBride given his consistent role in Arizona's aerial attack. Up to this point, McBride is pacing the Cardinals in target share (26.1%) and yards per route run (2.40) while his team-high 29.6% red-zone target share suggests his first receiving TD of the season is imminent.
Trey McBride - Receiving Yds
Sam LaPorta, Lions
FanDuel Salary: $5,800
Matchup: at IND
Before Sam LaPorta missed last week's game with a shoulder injury, he was sporting a 19.5% target share, 25.1% air yards share, and a healthy 2.23 yards per route run across his previous four outings. It was hard to click on LaPorta when he was closer to $7,000, but he's much easier to roster at a sub-$6,000 salary -- especially against a Colts defense that is coughing up the sixth-most FDPs per game to TEs (11.8).
Jonnu Smith, Dolphins
FanDuel Salary: $5,600
Matchup: vs. NE
In a development that would make Arthur Smith proud, Jonnu Smith has become a key cog in Miami's offense since Tua returned in Week 8, with Smith recording an 18.8% target share, 21.6% air yards share, and 2.04 yards per route run during that span. After producing a season-best 28.1 FDPs in Week 11, Smith will face a Patriots defense that is allowing the 11th-most FDPs per target to TEs (1.49).
Others to Consider
Hunter Henry ($5,200 at MIA) - Henry is a familiar name in this article as he continues to have a palatable salary with a consistent role in a Drake Maye-led offense. Throughout his last six games, Henry has 5-plus targets and 40-plus receiving yards in five of those contests, and the Dolphins are allowing the highest target rate to TEs (22.9%).
Ja'Tavion Sanders ($4,900 vs. KC) - The TE position is one that's had success against the Chiefs this season as KC is permitting the fifth-most FDPs per game (12.5) to them. In his two games before Carolina's bye week in Week 11, Sanders was on the field plenty with an 86.1% snap rate and 73.2% route rate while he makes for a solid bring-back option in Chiefs stacks.
Defenses
Houston Texans
FanDuel Salary: $4,700
Matchup: vs. TEN
Will Levis has certainly looked better in recent weeks, but he's still registering a dismal -0.27 expected points added per drop back, 37.2% passing success rate, and 12.1% sack rate in his seven games. The defense of the Houston Texans has contributed 10-plus FDPs in four of their last six games, and they have the third-highest pressure rate (39.4%) in the league.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
FanDuel Salary: $4,400
Matchup: at NYG
While Tampa Bay's defense has struggled mightily thus far, there's a chance a DeVito-led offense for New York becomes a train wreck. The Giants have the fifth-lowest implied total (18.0) on the main slate, and our projections have the Bucs' D posting the most FDPs (12) among defenses in Week 12.
Others to Consider
Arizona Cardinals ($3,600 at SEA) - Even though Arizona's defense isn't loaded with talent, they've shown vast improvements in recent contests, scoring 12 FDPs in back-to-back games. The Seahawks throw the ball plenty with Geno Smith at QB while PFF ranks Seattle's offensive line 30th in pass-blocking efficiency.
New York Giants ($3,300 vs. TB) - For those who plug-and-play any defense in DFS, the Giants are a viable salary-saving option with the idea that the Bucs still aren't operating smoothly on offense despite Evans potentially returning. Once again, there's a chance wind is a factor in Sunday's matchup, so New York's chances of limiting Tampa Bay's offense could be improved.
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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.