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Fantasy Football: 3 Trends to Know Heading Into Week 12

Skyler Carlin
Skyler Carlin@skyler_carlin

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Fantasy Football: 3 Trends to Know Heading Into Week 12

Fantasy football playoffs are on the horizon, so it's vital to use valuable information and data to make calculated lineup decisions in the coming weeks. Understanding trends around the league can allow us to gain an advantage over our opponents in fantasy football, whether it be in season-long or DFS formats.

Player's usage, adjusted pace, team pass rates, defensive schemes, and other factors all fit the description of trends we should be paying attention to. Taking that into account, let's take a look at a few trends to know entering Week 12.

All NFL projections via our numbers at FanDuel Research, and NFL odds references are to FanDuel Sportsbook.

Fantasy Football Trends to Know for Week 12

Jauan Jennings Is the 49ers' True WR1

The San Francisco 49ers returned from their bye week in Week 10 with a few of their key contributors getting healthy. Along with Christian McCaffrey making his season debut in Week 10, Jauan Jennings was back in the offense following a two-game absence, and he's proven to be the true No. 1 receiver on the 49ers sans Brandon Aiyuk.

Across the last two weeks, Jennings leads San Fran's offense in target share (35.5%), air yards share (39.8%), yards per route run (2.83), receptions per game (8.5), and receiving yards per game (92), via NextGenStats. Just to compare, Deebo Samuel owns a 21.0% target share, 14.3% air yards share, and 1.42 yards per route run while McCaffrey is sporting a 19.4% target share, 13.3% air yards share, and 1.90 yards per route run in the same two-game sample.

While George Kittle was inactive in Week 11, Jennings has clearly built a decent rapport with Brock Purdy. Jennings has earned 11 targets in back-to-back contests, which has resulted in him finishing as the WR17 or better in half-PPR scoring leagues in both weeks.

At the moment, the 49ers are on the outside looking in when taking a glance at the NFC playoff picture. With San Francisco desperately needing wins down the stretch, I'd expect them to continue leaning on Jennings through the air as he's done nothing but prove he's an extremely talented wideout when given the opportunity.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba Is Getting More Downfield Work

During his rookie season in 2023, Jaxon Smith-Njigba didn't generate many explosive plays as he never eclipsed 63 receiving yards in a game and his longest reception was 35 yards. While the start of this season looked like more of the same for JSN, we've seen a drastic change to how he's being deployed in recent weeks.

After posting 10 catches for 110 yards on 11 targets in Week 11, Smith-Njigba now has back-to-back 100-yard outings for the first time in his career. Over the last two weeks, Smith-Njigba leads the Seattle Seahawks in target share (36.9%), air yards share (55.8%), and yards per route run (3.97) on an impressive 14.6-yard average depth of target.

Despite JSN's Week 9 performance coming when D.K. Metcalf was sidelined, his vertical usage remained a focal point of Seattle's offense in Week 11. Smith-Njigba has totaled 15 downfield targets (targets of 10-plus yards) in his last two games after averaging 2.1 downfield targets per game through the first eight weeks.

Even though Seattle has seen their passing rate decline a bit in recent weeks, they are still third in pass rate over expected (+2.4%) entering a Week 12 bout with the Arizona Cardinals. If Smith-Njigba continues to see downfield looks in the Seahawks' passing game, we may need to rewire our outlooks on him moving forward.

Kyren Williams' Efficiency Numbers Are Concerning

While I typically mention trends that have occurred in recent weeks, not enough people are talking about how inefficient Kyren Williams has been this season for the Los Angeles Rams. Williams was a bonafide league winner in fantasy a season ago, exploding for 1,350 scrimmage yards and 15 touchdowns while averaging 5.0 yards per carry and 5.2 yards per touch.

As for this season, Williams is currently notching only 3.9 yards per carry and 4.1 yards per touch with 886 scrimmage yards and 10 touchdowns. Upon diving deeper, Williams is also registering -0.35 rushing yards over expected per attempt and 88.6 scrimmage yards per game despite tallying 21.6 touches per game.

According to PFF, Williams has the fourth-fewest yards after contact per attempt (2.61), fifth-fewest runs of 10-plus yards (12), and second-lowest breakaway percentage (8.7%) among the 28 running backs with 100-plus attempts. Besides his inability to create explosive plays on the ground, Williams has failed to reach the end zone in each of his last three games.

Without touchdowns propping him up, Williams has been the RB20 in half-PPR formats in three consecutive weeks. With the Rams taking on a Philadelphia Eagles squad in Week 12 that is giving up the fifth-fewest rushing yards over expected per attempt and second-fewest rushing touchdowns to running backs -- while they've yet to allow a 100-yard rusher -- it's tough to get overly excited about playing Williams this week.


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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.

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