Should We Buy Into JuJu Smith-Schuster's Fantasy Football Resurgence?

The Kansas City Chiefs' receiver room is looking a lot different from what it did entering the season. Rashee Rice was the most-used receiver by a mile with a 34.5% target share over the first three weeks of the season; the next-best mark was 16.7% held by Isiah Pacheco. Following Rice's season-ending knee injury and Pacheco's leg injury, Patrick Mahomes' receiving options are looking a lot different. Plus, Marquise Brown's continued absence from his dislocated SC joint adds to the situation.

The passing game has moved to a tight end-heavy attack over the Chiefs' last two games, giving Travis Kelce a 30.6% target share during the span. However, surely Kansas City would still target its receivers at times, but the question has been who will step up? The first-round rookie Xavier Worthy has logged 12.6 fantasy points per game over the last two weeks. JuJu Smith-Schuster was re-signed late in the offseason, and he's quickly emerged amid the injuries -- which included seven receptions for 130 receiving yards on eight targets in Week 5's Monday Night Football matchup.

Considering Smith-Schuster is available in 93% of leagues headed into Week 6, his fantasy football value is worth tracking. How should managers react to Smith-Schuster's sudden value in Kansas City's offense?

Smith-Schuster's Week 5 Usage

Week 5 was a smashing success for JuJu, producing 16.5 fantasy points in half-PPR (14th-most among position). While his 8 targets and 23.5% target share still sat behind Kelce's 10 targets and 29.4%, Smith-Schuster was a big-play machine.

He logged 18.6 yards per catch and 11.7 yards after the catch (YAC) per reception, via FantasyPros. Smith-Schuster finished with 82 YAC, which was only behind Ja'Marr Chase's 97 YAC in his explosive 193-yard performance. JuJu was tearing it up in just about any efficiency metric.

Kelce still led the way with a 35.4% air yards share compared to Smith-Schuster's 32.0% mark. Worthy also finished with the highest average depth of target (aDOT) at 6.5 while JuJu posted 6.2 (per NFL's Next Gen Stats). While both marks suggest we shouldn't go all in on the breakout performance from Monday, he logged 35.9 receiving yards over expectation (RecYOE) compared to Kelce's -28.7 and Worthy's -26.7. Why would the Chiefs not revisit some targets for Smith-Schuster after seeing this kind of production?

Starting in Week 3, JuJu's snaps jumped. He put up only 11 snaps in back-to-back games to begin the season. In Week 3, Smith-Schuster played in 39 snaps for a 54.2% snap rate and 30 snaps for a 51.7% snap rate in Week 4. Both marks were surpassed in Week 5 with 53 snaps for a 66.3% snap share. This was the same exact mark as Worthy, too. While Kelce likely remains the offense's top pass catcher due to injuries, JuJu is rivaling Worthy's numbers as the top wideout going forward.

Even Smith-Schuster's red zone snaps were even with Kelce at 11 snaps -- and a 64.7% red zone snap share overall. That also implies more promising fantasy numbers in the coming weeks.

Overall, Week 5 was one of JuJu's best performances in years. His 130 receiving yards on Monday night were the most since a 157-yard eruption in a Wild Card matchup in the 2020-21 season. Smith-Schuster was still with the Pittsburgh Steelers; that's how long it's been.

JuJu is not unfamiliar to providing fantasy football value as he was WR22 in 2017, WR9 in 2018, and WR 18 in 2020. However, we are years removed from this, and we are only one year removed from Smith-Schuster finishing as WR103. But JuJu was WR29 in 2022, which was his only season with the Chiefs. Can Smith-Schuster mirror his 2022 numbers?

Smith-Schuster's Fantasy Football Outlook

Of course, a lot of Smith-Schuster's value going forward hinges on players returning from injuries. Rice is officially out for the season, and Brown is expected to miss the regular season with potential to return in the postseason. There won't be a top dog returning, taking away from JuJu's value. The only worry will be if Kansas City decides to trade for a wide receiver such as Amari Cooper, Diontae Johnson, or DeAndre Hopkins.

For now, there isn't any solid proof out there that the Chiefs will acquire a big name wideout. It's mostly rumors, meaning carrying Smith-Schuster on your roster still has upside.

We have two clear concerns surrounding JuJu's ability to become a consistent fantasy contributor: his red zone targets and air yards.

As we mentioned, Smith-Schuster enjoyed a good amount of red zone snaps in Week 5, but it didn't lead to targets with only one red zone target (11.1% share). He now has a 11.8% red zone target share since seeing his snaps jump in Week 3. His air yards share is also only 12.3% paired with a 5.6 aDOT during the span, as well.

If JuJu can't start finding the end zone, his fantasy production from Week 5 probably won't be sustainable. In Week 3, he posted two catches for 17 yards (8.5 yards per reception) on three targets paired with only nine YAC. Despite a 51.7% snap share in Week 4, Smith-Schuster didn't record one catch or target with a 47.1% route share. Depending on JuJu to keep coming up with some ridiculous YAC, like in Week 5, probably won't yield consistent results.

We can't ignore his lack of production with decent snap shares in his two games prior to Week 5. Seeing Smith-Schuster's snaps jump on Monday is encouraging, though. Plus, posting his best numbers in over three years still holds weight.

Getting exposure to the Chiefs' passing game always has its advantages, especially when Kansas City has the league's 12th-best schedule-adjusted pass offense fueled by football's best quarterback, Mahomes. Smith-Schuster is an obvious waiver wire target with a 7% roster rate across leagues. Maybe a breakout week will lead to a larger role for JuJu, but for now, he's a worthy stash until consistency is present.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.