Should Josh Allen or Lamar Jackson Be the Top Quarterback for Fantasy Football in 2025?

Lamar Jackson is coming off a QB1 finish in 2024, outpacing the field in total fantasy points (434.4) and fantasy points per game (25.6). He was the only signal caller to average more than 23 points per game last season.

Josh Allen wasn't able to match Jackson's output, but he finished as the QB2, extending a streak of five straight campaigns where he's finished first or second in fantasy points among quarterbacks.

Jackson and Allen are now being picked as the first two QBs off the board in early drafts, tracking as late second-round picks, according to FantasyPros' consensus average draft position (ADP) data. But which one should be viewed as the top overall quarterback in 2025?

Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson Fantasy Football Outlooks

It was hardly a surprise to see Jackson lead all quarterbacks in rushing yards last season (915), and he's finished first or second in QB rushing yards in all seven of his NFL campaigns dating back to 2018. His rushing track record is even more remarkable when considering he made just seven starts as a rookie and missed multiple games to injury in 2021 and 2022.

However, what was surprising was his production as a passer, which was the biggest reason he was such a fantasy monster in 2024. Jackson set career highs in passing touchdowns (41) and yards (4,172) -- all while tossing a mere 4 interceptions.

Jackson has otherwise exceeded 26 passing TDs only one previous time (36 in 2019), and it just so happens that was the last time he finished as the overall QB1. Unfortunately, this is an area where we should see Jackson regress in 2025.

His touchdown rate was 8.6% in 2024 and 9.0% in 2019, and those marks well exceed his career average (6.4%). In four campaigns between these two spikes, he logged rates of 6.9%, 4.2%, 5.2%, and 5.3%. Over the years, we've consistently seen high touchdown rates drop the following season, even for prolific passers like Patrick Mahomes and Peyton Manning. Tom Brady produced a touchdown rate above 8% only once across his lengthy career.

With that in mind, Jackson is hardly a sure bet to put up more fantasy points than Allen as a passer in 2025. Last year was the first time since 2019 that Jackson exceeded Allen in passing yards or passing touchdowns. Despite that, Allen was right alongside Jackson as one of the NFL's most efficient passers in 2024. Jackson produced 0.29 expected points added per drop back, according to NFL Next Gen Stats, while Allen was at a nearby 0.25.

For all his running ability, Jackson doesn't necessarily have the edge on Allen as a runner, either, because the Baltimore Ravens limit his rushes near the goal line. In 2024, he logged eight carries inside the 10-yard line and zero inside the 5-yard line, contributing to him totaling just four rushing scores. Considering Baltimore still has Derrick Henry at their disposal, that usage is unlikely to change.

In contrast, Allen has scored double-digit rushing touchdowns in back-to-back seasons. In 2024, he scored 10 of his 12 rushing TDs off 18 carries inside the 10-yard line -- 30.0% of the team's rushes from that range -- 10 of which came within the 5-yard line.

Finally, it's hard to ignore Allen's year-to-year consistency. Remember, over the past five years, he's finished as the QB1, QB1, QB2, QB1, and QB2. He's played 16 or 17 games in all five of those seasons, too, another fantastic trend for someone who runs as often as he does.

Jackson hasn't shown quite the same steadiness. Following his breakout campaign as the QB1 in 2019, he's since been the QB10, QB15, QB14, QB4, and QB1. While he's stayed healthy the last two seasons, he was held to 12 games in both 2021 and 2022.

Ultimately, both players have demonstrated they have the ceiling to be fantasy's top QB, so utilizing an early pick on either one could pay dividends. This is further backed by them having remarkably similar consensus projections on FantasyPros.

However, if you're choosing between the two, the high floor Allen has shown over his career is hard to ignore. Add in that Jackson is likely due for regression in the passing department, and Allen should get the nod as the first QB taken in drafts.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.