Saturday Keeneland Picks: 4/12/2025

Saturday is another exciting day of horse racing at Keeneland, and the day’s action features a pair of stakes races. Those include the Lexington (G3), the final race on the Kentucky Derby trail, as well as the Jenny Wiley (G1), a proper Grade 1 race that features a preview of the upper echelon of the filly and mare turf division into the summer and fall.

Racing gets underway at Keeneland at 1:00 p.m. Eastern, and an 11-race card is on tap. The card includes full fields on dirt and turf all day long, featuring everyone from rising stars to the best-proven of stakes mainstays. You can watch all the action on FanDuel TV and get up-to-the-minute news and analysis, and bet every race online through FanDuel!

Make sure to check the weather before placing your Keeneland picks this weekend. Skies are supposed to be clear Saturday, but after rain Thursday and Friday, the turf may be less than firm, leading to possible scratches in grass races. Scratches can happen for any reason, and it’s always good to make sure that the race you handicapped is the race you’re betting.

With less than a month to go until the Derby, check out the latest Kentucky Derby odds and see which contenders are set to compete!

Keeneland: Saturday Picks

Race 4 - $80,000 claiming, non-winners of two races, about seven furlongs on the dirt - Sight, Indy Magic

FanDuel odds: 12-1 and 4-1

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These conditioned $80,000 claimers are becoming what the $50,000 claimers used to be: that first step down from an allowance race. This race is a mix of horses who are coming close against allowance horses, horses coming in off of layoffs, and even a couple who are taking a modest little step up in class. The specialist about-seven-furlong distance adds to the intrigue.

Sight (12-1) has upside in only his fourth career start. He does have to move forward, but there are multiple reasons he can. He’s had the ultimate equipment change since his fifth-place finish in an allowance at Fair Grounds back in February—specifically, he has been gelded since that start. He also has yet to try an extended one-turn distance, something his pedigree screams that he wants: he is by Munnings, as good an extended sprint sire as there is in the game, out of a Flatter mare whose only win came at a one-turn mile. He drops down for a claiming tag for the first time for Al Stall, a trainer who often wins at a price for that move, and he gets Flavien Prat in the irons. If he can tap back into the tactical speed he showed in his debut maiden win last November, Sight can put it all together again at a square price.

With Indy Magic (4-1), trainer Mark Casse gets back to basics here. His tries in two-turn allowances in his last two at Oaklawn weren’t bad efforts, but between those and a pair of two-turn allowance tries last out, he has just shown a little more pep in his one-turn tries earlier in his career. That includes a debut win going seven furlongs on the Keeneland dirt last April, a race in which he tracked the pace and took over in the final furlong. An outside gate could help him work a similar trip in this under Luan Machado, who also rode him in his maiden win last year. And, not only does he return to this course and distance for the first time since his debut, but he also goes in for the claiming tag since that debut win for a $100,000 price. In short, it looks like he’s back against his friends today, doing what may well be his game.

Race 9 - Lexington Stakes (G3), 1 1/16 miles on the dirt - Bullard, Gosger

FanDuel odds: 9-2 and 7-2

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This year’s Lexington is unlikely to have Kentucky Derby implications, but several talented horses in this field could make noise in later Triple Crown races or into the summer. The most interesting of the group is Bullard (9-2), who tries two turns for the first time for trainer Michael McCarthy. This son of Gun Runner should find a home going two turns. He keeps his regular rider, Umberto Rispoli, from three good efforts out west, another sign of confidence. And, with a few horses in this race who can show some speed, if he can sit just a little closer to the pace than he did in his shorter-distance efforts out west—a logical possibility, given the stretch out—he can mow down the frontrunners in the end.

Gosger (7-2) is another trying two turns for the first time; being a Nyquist half to top-class turf router Harvey’s Lil Goil, he has every reason to come into his best on the stretch out. Not that he’s been any slouch at one turn: he rallied for a good second in a six-furlong debut, and then broke his maiden in forward fashion when stretched out to the one-turn mile at Gulfstream. He’ll have a bit more to handle up front in this spot than he did last out, with horses like Rolando, Praetor, and even Bracket Buster and Touchy possible to step on the gas. But, his debut was good enough to suggest he does not need the lead to run well, and it’s a nice vote of confidence to see Irad Ortiz, Jr. jumping into the saddle.

Race 10 - Jenny Wiley (G1), 1 1/16 miles on the turf - Excellent Truth, Poolside With Slim

FanDuel odds: 5-2 and 20-1

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Chad Brown has won the Jenny Wiley six of the last seven years and seven of the last 10, and he returns to the fray in 2025 with Excellent Truth (5-2). This mare is a little different than the usual Chad Brown offering here, as his successful runners usually have a recent American start. Excellent Truth hasn’t raced since a close second in a French Group 1 last July behind Mqse de Sevigne, one of the best in France last year. That said, horses who come close in overseas Group 1 races tend to fit right into American Grade 1 races on the lawn. And, the rain this week means that her strong firm over soft and even heavy ground in France. In short, she looks well-meant, and no jockey is riding the biggest races better right now than Flavien Prat, who takes the call.

Poolside With Slim (20-1) is likely to sneak under the radar, coming off a third-place finish in the Honey Fox (G3). This is her first start in Grade 1 company, so she does have class to prove. But, that Honey Fox third was a solid first attempt against older company, and gives her a lot of room to move forward second off the lay for Rusty Arnold, an experienced but under-the-radar trainer who can move his charges forward in their second start off the layoff. With good tactical versatility and a smart victory in the Valley View (G2) at Keeneland last year, she has a lot of upside at a big price.

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