UFC 315 DFS Picks: Muhammad vs. Della Maddalena

If you crave violence, artistry, and competition in its purest form, the Ultimate Fighting Championship might be for you.

Colloquially known as "UFC," the world's largest mixed martial arts promotion holds around a dozen MMA fights a vast majority of weekends throughout the year. The promotion has fathered some of the largest combat-sport stars of the 21st century, including Conor McGregor, Khabib Nurmagomedov, and Jon Jones.

There are plenty of ways to get in on the action every Saturday. In this piece, we'll look at the fights through the lens of playing UFC DFS contests on FanDuel Fantasy. Fighters score fantasy points for significant strikes, takedowns, knockdowns, and submission attempts, but a quick finish provides the best way to win!

Without further delay, here are a few best bets from UFC 315: Muhammad vs. Della Maddalena, taking place at Bell Centre in Montreal, Quebec on Saturday.

UFC 315 DFS Picks

Studs to Target

Benoit Saint Denis ($23)

France's Saint Denis had an epic lightweight clash with Joel Alvarez scrapped due to the Spaniard's injury. He turned down a couple of challenging fights in favor of, likely, ending his losing skid against Kyle Prepolec. It's nice Canada's Prepolec has UFC data from an 0-2 tenure in 2019, but his 40% takedown D seems to be disastrous opposite one of lightweight's best grapplers. BSD is -1050 to win as the slate's best MVP candidate. When props drop, I'm guessing he'll be a favorite to win in the first round.

Navajo Stirling ($21)

Some feel Navajo Stirling, not Carlos Ulberg, is Australia's next contender for gold at light heavyweight, and he's got a passable matchup to keep the momentum of two straight UFC-affiliated knockouts rolling. Ivan Erslan dropped his UFC debut after attempting just 61 distance strikes against a more porous opposing defense. Erslan was also KO'd on the regional scene in 2023. Here's the second-safest bet for a win on the board.

Mike Malott ($19)

Once considered Canada's best hope at UFC gold, Mike Malott has definitely lost steam after a loss to Neil Magny followed by an underwhelming decision win over Trevin Giles. I still think his early work against Magny should bode well against Charles Radtke's untested takedown D, and Radtke was finished twice in 10 regional appearances. At worst, Malott's +0.79 striking success rate (SSR) and durability should serve him well against the boom-or-bust attack from "Chuck Buffalo".

Bekzat Almakhan ($16)

Though on road soil against Winnipeg's Brad Katona, Bekzat Almakhan is not a huge favorite as the guy who got closest to finishing top-five contender Umar Nurmagomedov in this division. That might because Almakhan failed to defend all five takedown attempts from Umar in his debut, and Katona does wrestle. However, the Canadian's 34% takedown accuracy isn't great, and Almakhan could make great use of a four-inch reach edge on the feet against Katona's pedestrian +0.11 SSR.

Marc-Andre Barriault ($16)

You don't have to guess if Bruno Silva's heart is still in it. He told us it's really not. Financial circumstances might be why he's now fighting Marc-Andre Barriault on Saturday, but that positions "Powerbar" for a bounce-back win as a -158 favorite, according to FanDuel's UFC odds. While Silva has never been (T)KO'd in 35 fights as a pro, Barriault's striking volume (12.72 significant strikes attempted per minute) can still post an elite fantasy score in a decision.

Value Plays to Target

Ion Cutelaba ($15)

Here's another model favorite in the player pool's pick 'em fight. I've got Ion Cutelaba 56.3% likely to win his bout with Modestas Bukauskas in a fight that play out anywhere from a quick brawl to a full feature. Training with one of the sport's best gyms at Xtreme Couture, I'd favor Cutelaba in both scenarios after surviving a more powerful puncher, Ibo Aslan, to win a brawl via first-round submission in his last fight. Bukauskas' -0.79 SSR has come against extremely iffy competition.

JeongYeong Lee ($14)

From a pound-for-pound perspective, Daniel Santos might be better than JeongYeong Lee, but this fight will take place in Lee's native weight class at 145. That's why he's shrunk from +126 on Sunday to -134 now. Santos has faced adversity in all three fights during his UFC tenure, and Lee had shown a well-rounded skillset in four UFC-affiliated starts before running into a surging Hyder Amil (3-0 UFC).

Jack Della Maddalena ($12)

As mentioned in my UFC 315 best bets, I've modeled Jack Della Maddalena a slight favorite in this bout with Belal Muhammad when his takedown defense has been solid. JDM's +2.47 SSR and 1.27% knockout rate (KD%) have finished five of his eight opponents, and there's a massive gap in danger when Muhammad has accumulated 0 knockdowns and just 3 submission attempts in 19 UFC starts. Belal's upside at $19 is seemingly coasting out a decision as he did last July.

Aiemann Zahabi ($10)

It's never easy to pick a striker against Jose Aldo, a UFC Hall of Famer that lives in that realm. However, Aldo's $18 salary is crazy for a 38-year-old that hasn't won via finish since February 2019. In what is probably a close, competitive battle at distance, Aiemann Zahabi attempts 1.07 more significant strikes per minute, and his division-best 71% striking D is a match for Aldo's legendary mark (60%), so I think he can squeak out a decision win.

Jessica Andrade ($9)

I am pretty certain it's 'dog or pass in both ranked women's fights this weekend, but I feel better about Jessica Andrade winning hers than Alexa Grasso, who seems outgunned at distance. If Andrade's 72% takedown D holds, her +0.93 SSR should destroy Jasmine Jasudavicius (0.04 SSR) in a striking battle. Many are worried about a five-inch reach deficit, but Andrade set this division's record for landed significant strikes (231) despite a four-inch disadvantage against Lauren Murphy.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.