Saratoga Picks for Alabama Stakes Day, 8/22/2026

Key Takeaways:

• Alabama Day at Saratoga is loaded with class, headlined by Counting Stars chasing a historic Spa sweep while the Ballston Spa adds real turf depth.
• Warm weather and likely firm ground should keep conditions honest, but scratch awareness remains the bettor’s secret weapon.
• Dancingwithdestiny gets the right pace setup for a forward trip, while Fairy Godmother looms as the late threat if things heat up early.
• Silver Talent is bred to relish the mile and looks poised to move forward, with Stimulate stretching out into her pedigree sweet spot.
• Segesta is the Ballston Spa’s measuring stick, but Grayosh has the right blend of class and versatility to make her presence felt late.

The Saratoga card on Saturday, August 22 features the Alabama, a Grade 1, 1 ¼-mile test for three-year-old fillies. That race features Counting Stars, the Mark Casse trainee who has won two straight Grade 1 races at Saratoga and goes for a sweep of the top-level races for sophomore fillies at the Spa, something that may put her in the catbird seat for champion three-year-old filly honors at the end of the year.

However, the Alabama isn’t the only big action at the Spa this Saturday. The 12-race card features another graded-stakes race as well, the 1 1/16-mile Ballston Spa (G2) for fillies and mares on the lawn. With competitive fields on the dirt and turf all day long, it’s a great day to make plans to watch and wager all day through FanDuel!

Make sure to check the weather and scratches before placing your bets, as well. Saturday should be a warm day, with rain unlikely to come in until at least Saturday night, if not Sunday, though forecasts can change in the days leading up to the race. Furthermore, scratches can happen for any reason, so make sure the pace and class balances are what you expect them to be by confirming scratches before you bet. After all, an informed bettor is a smart one!

Horse Racing: Saratoga Race Course Expert Picks

These are three best bets on Saturday’s card at Saratoga, along with analysis for each horse:

Race 8 - New York-bred allowance, N1X, 5 ½ furlongs on the turf - Dancingwithdestiny, Fairy Godmother

FanDuel odds: 6-1 and 6-1

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There isn’t a lot of speed drawn into this race, particularly in the sense of real 5 ½-furlong speed. A horse who can get a good forward spot may have an advantage, and since Vernon Valley and Moonlight Ready are really only speed at longer distances than this, that could leave a nice front-end trip for Dancingwithdestiny (6-1). She was left to prompt a faster pace and then got caught late last out, but this time she may be able to get away with more reasonable fractions on the front end. And, if that’s the case, she and jockey Katie Davis should have something left in the tank to hold off the closing horde. And, even if she gets outjumped early? She ran a good race from a stalking spot two back, meaning she isn’t necessarily one-way speed.

If a little more speed than that does materialize, Fairy Godmother (6-1) is well suited to capitalize. She was third at this level last out, and though she has tables to turn on Tuthilltown from that last race, Tuthilltown is mired in a parking-lot gate whereas Fairy Godmother drew better, a nice midfield draw. Furthermore, she was roughed at the break in her last two starts; if she comes away better, she should have more gas late. Jockey Flavien Prat is also an eye-catching assignment – not only is he having a hot Saratoga meet, but he has been making the most of his handful of mounts for the Ray Handal barn this summer.

Race 9 - Allowance, N1X, one mile on the dirt track - Silver Talent, Stimulate

FanDuel odds: 5-1 and 5-2

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Silver Talent (5-1) was third earlier in the meet going seven furlongs at this level, but has every right to improve in this spot. After all, not only did his maiden victory come at a mile (also against older horses), but his pedigree is all route – by Constitution out of Paulassilverlining – and trainer Chad Brown’s runners tend to move forward with more distance. The presence of Flavien Prat appeals, as well; Prat has ridden all three times in the past. With several runners unproven anywhere but the lead, the fact that Silver Talent has won from off the pace appeals as well. He does add blinkers, opening up a risk that he will be too sharp – but that concern is allayed by the fact that despite how heavily Chad Brown gets bet, his first-time blinker horses turn a flat-bet profit over the last three years.

Stimulate (5-2) was well beaten in her six-furlong debut at the Spa last year, but that wasn’t a huge surprise – sire Tapit and dam Elate are both “the longer, the better” types, and Elate in particular developed with time. She returned after almost a year off to win a seven-furlong maiden special weight last month in stalk-and-pounce fashion. She has upside with the extra furlong, and trainer Bill Mott often moves his horses forward second off the layoff as well. And, even though he loses jockey Junior Alvarado (usually Mott’s first call), that’s not a big deal – Alvarado is riding big horse Knightsbridge in the Pacific Classic (G1), a million-dollar race at Del Mar, and his replacement is the hottest jockey on the grounds, Jose Ortiz.

Race 10 - Ballston Spa (G2), 1 1/16 miles on the inner turf course - Segesta, Grayosh

FanDuel odds: 7-5 and 8-1

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Segesta (7-5) is squarely the horse to beat in the Ballston Spa. The top-stringer for trainer Chad Brown, she led most of the way before being caught last out in the Diana (G1), but that was a 1 ⅛-mile race over rain-affected ground. She should get her preferred better going for this race, and the slight cut back to 1 1/16 miles puts her right back at the distance at which she won the Jenny Wiley (G1) in a dead heat three starts back. Though she set the fractions last out, her better style is a stalking one, and with both And One More Time and Long Ago in the field, Segesta should be able to get that stalking trip and dig in down the lane.

If someone upsets the apple cart, the most likely candidate is her stablemate Grayosh (8-1). She won the 1 ⅛-mile Matchmaker (G3) at Monmouth and steps up in class for this. Though she was third at this shorter trip two back, the open-lengths winner Gimme a Nother turned around to win the Beverly D last out – in short, she’s a serious racehorse. Grayosh is versatile enough to give good account anywhere between a mile and 1 ⅛ miles, and she should be able to get a good spot a couple lengths off the pace and get rolling in the lane. One question is who her rider will be – Tyler Gaffalione is suspended this week – but she has run well with enough different riders to allay that concern, especially at the likely price.

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