Saquon Barkley to Eagles: 2024 Rushing, Receiving and Touchdown Props Analysis

It's been a busy NFL free agency period, including some moves from one division rival to another.

One that has drawn some attention is Saquon Barkley moving from the New York Giants to the Philadelphia Eagles.

At three years and $37.75 million (second-highest per-year average salary in NFL history) and with $26 million guaranteed at signing, Barkley's contract indicates that he should slot into a featured role within the Eagles' offense.

So, what are the expectations for Barkley in Philadelphia in 2023?

Saquon Barkley 2024 Player Props

For answers, let's look at the early Saquon Barkley player props for 2024 from FanDuel Sportsbook.

With a rushing yards over/under of 1025.5, expectations are quite high for Barkley in Philadelphia.

And with -118 odds on him to score at least seven touchdowns on the ground, he also isn't expected to be a true afterthought in the red zone after quarterback Jalen Hurts.

Saquon Barkley's Fit in Philadelphia

Barkley has run for 11, 6, 2, 10, and 6 touchdowns in five seasons with at least 13 games played as a New York Giant. In 2020, he played just two games and failed to score.

Barkley has also rushed for at least 1,000 yards in three of these five elevated seasons and fell just short (962 yards) in 2023 across 14 games.

For three straight seasons, the Eagles have ranked top-12 in points (12th, 3rd, and 7th) as well as top-14 in yards (14th, 3rd, and 8th), giving Barkley a presumed key role in a top-tier offense.

One big sticking point with his rushing touchdown prop, of course, is the existence of Jalen Hurts, who has rushed for 15, 13, and 10 rushing touchdowns over the past three seasons.

Is there enough left for Barkley?

Well, a year ago, running back D'Andre Swift tallied five rushing scores with Kenneth Gainwell accounting for two touchdowns. Those were the only seven running back scores with Hurts more than doubling up (15) the backs' touchdown tally.

But back in 2022, Miles Sanders scored 11 times on the ground with Hurts finding the end zone 13 times. Gainwell and Boston Scott totaled an additional 7 rushing scores, giving the RBs 18 touchdowns on the ground in a season where the team ran for 32 touchdowns.

There's definitely precedent for Barkley to score plenty, especially with an extended role.

That is --perhaps -- the biggest question here. Barkley's contract indicates a dominant role, but is that in line with Philadelphia's philosophy?

In 2023, Swift led the Eagles' running backs with a 58% snap rate across his healthy games. Swift ran 229 times for 1,049 yards with those 5 touchdowns even at a sub-60.0% snap rate.

In 2022, Sanders saw a 57% snap rate after a 53% snap rate in 2021. The Eagles haven't had a true RB1 since Sanders was above a 70% snap rate back in 2020.

Of course, Barkley has big money attached to his name and has carried a featured workload plenty of times in the past.

Barkley played on 78% of the Giants' snaps in his active contests last season -- in line with his league-high 80% snap rate from 2022.

Presumably, Barkley loses fewer high-leverage touches to other running backs than Swift and Sanders have in the past.

That'll go a long way with figuring out his 2024 stat line.

But ultimately, how might he stack up against his primary props (1,025.5 rushing yards and 6.5 touchdowns)?

Saquon Barkley Consensus 2024 Projections

Initial DraftSharks projections for Barkley indicate 297.5 carries for 1,336 yards and 10.1 touchdowns on the ground as well as 50.7 catches for 341.7 yards and 1.8 touchdowns as a receiver. That includes a missed game expectation of 2.4.

Rotowire has Barkley at a more conservative projection: 261 carries for 1,157 yards and 7.0 rushing touchdowns with 44 catches, 331 yards, and 2 touchdowns.

ESPN's Mike Clay is a tad lower still: 252 carries, 1,035 rushing yards, and 9 TDs on the ground across 14 projected games along with 42 catches for 330 yards and 2 touchdowns.

That's an average line of 270.2 carries for 1,176.0 yards and 8.7 scores, suggesting the overs on his primary props are very much attainable.

As a receiver, he's projected for an average line of 45.6 catches, 334.2 yards, and 3.8 touchdowns across the three sources.

Swift was able to produce big numbers even with a sub-60% snap rate in 2023 (again, 229 carries for 1,049 yards and 5 touchdowns), and with Barkley's contract and talent, it's understandable to be bullish on his projections.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.