Saints at Packers Single-Game NFL DFS Picks for Monday Night Football

You always want to end on a high note. Week 16 might not.

The 5-9 New Orleans Saints have lost several key pieces on their offense and are limping toward the finish line. The 10-4 Green Bay Packers might be hard-pressed to win the NFC North, but they're quickly rising up the ranks as a dark horse to win it all behind Jordan Love's strong play.

Will New Orleans surprise with a nice effort on the road, or does Green Bay head into Christmas feeling groovy?

For those unfamiliar, single-game slates feature five flex spots with identical scoring to the main slate. However, kickers are included in these contests, and there is an "MVP" roster slot. The MVP receives 1.5 times his total fantasy points, making this spot crucial.

FanDuel Research's Brandon Gdula has done a deep dive on single-game strategy, and FanDuel Research has NFL DFS projections if you select the game from the slate tab. It's worth checking out both before making your lineups.

All NFL projections via our numbers at FanDuel Research, and NFL odds references are to FanDuel Sportsbook.

Saints at Packers NFL DFS Picks

MVP Candidates

Josh Jacobs ($15,500)

Overwhelmingly, the entire field should start with Josh Jacobs tonight. The stud running back has averaged 111.8 scrimmage yards and 1.8 scrimmage touchdowns per game since Green Bay's bye, and New Orleans' defense is ranked significantly worse against the rush (30th) than the pass (9th), per numberFire's schedule-adjusted metrics.

Fading him at the multiplier is an assumption of injury or a game so lopsided that the Pack's reserves get in on the fun.

Jordan Love ($14,000)

Being different without zany is brutally difficult on this slate, but Jordan Love at MVP could be one of those pivots.

That's a play that most of the touchdowns end up falling on the 26-year-old's plate, which is plausible given that "December Jordan Love" is back. Love is third in the NFL in expected points added per drop back (0.31 EPA/db) since the bye.

Green Bay has shown a willingness to let Jacobs run wild in recent weeks, capping Love under 20 FanDuel points (FDP) in each of the last four games. If NOLA sells out to stop the tailback, it isn't crazy to envision Love as the leading scorer.

Spencer Rattler ($12,000)

Spencer Rattler cooked in the two-minute drill to nearly upset the Washington Commanders last week. The issue? That's pretty much the only time he has.

Rattler's -0.35 EPA/db is the worst on his team, which -- in a category with Jake Haener -- might say it all. To make matters worse, Green Bay is nF's ninth-ranked schedule-adjusted D, benefitting from home field on the frozen tundra.

However, New Orleans is a 14.5-point underdog, so volume is projected to be there for the fifth-round rookie. We have to roster a Saint, so if he can channel some of last week's late form, there's a good chance he's the team's highest fantasy scorer.

Kendre Miller ($11,000)

It'll be interesting to see how New Orleans deploys Kendre Miller.

The third-round pick in 2023 is expected to lead a backfield that will also contain Jamaal Williams and Clyde Edwards-Helaire tonight in place of Alvin Kamara (groin).

In two weeks since Miller returned from IR, he's seen 9.5 carries per game to Williams' 1.5 with both seeing a total of two targets. CEH's early role might be in that latter department, but it's looking like the former TCU Horned Frogs standout might have a massive role.

New Orleans' 13.5-point team total against one of the best rush Ds in the NFL isn't an ideal spot to truly see what Miller can do, but this is a friendly salary for an RB who could conceivably play 70% of the snaps.

Flex Targets

Jayden Reed ($12,500), Tucker Kraft ($10,000), and Christian Watson ($9,500)

Picking a Packers pass-catcher feels like an impossible chore, but we know the favorites.

Jayden Reed will be a contrarian pick at the top under 10 FDP in four of his last five, but the talent is there.

Christian Watson is starting to take command of this wideout corps with its highest snap rate (78.1%) and target share (21.4%) since the bye -- and his targets are generally premium ones.

Tucker Kraft is also Love's favorite target in the red area, leading the team in receiving TDs (7) and red-zone targets per game (1.3).

I will mix and match this trio while leaving Romeo Doubs' elevated salary on the pine after Doubs scored twice on just five targets last week.

Marquez Valdes-Scantling ($9,500)

Marquez Valdes-Scantling is questionable to play after not practicing with a chest and illness injury. If he does play, you'd assume he'll lead a ragtag Saints receiving corps.

MVS' seven targets last week led the team from a combination of Haener and Rattler. He and Kevin Austin Jr. were the only wideouts to eclipse a 50.0% route rate.

Of course, the veteran spent four seasons in Green Bay, so the revenge narrative also comes with the reality it takes just one. He's caught 4 touchdowns on 14 receptions and has a reception of at least 22 yards in four straight games.

Green Bay D/ST ($9,000)

You probably saw this coming given the spread, but there's merit to the ability of this "player", too.

Green Bay's defense generates a ton of turnovers. Across the NFL, the Packers are sixth in interceptions (14) and third in fumble recoveries (12) before this prime spot.

Honestly, Rattler hasn't really had turnover issues (3) yet, but he's taken 14 sacks in 4 games of extended action. According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), the Pack have a 33% pressure rate (tied for 12th in the NFL) that could give him fits.

FanDuel Research's NFL DFS projections don't often shine kindly on D/STs, but they're assigning Green Bay's the fourth-best value score on this single-game slate.

Brandon McManus ($8,500) and Blake Grupe ($8,500)

Thankfully, wind and precipitation won't be much of an issue tonight. It'll just be cold. This game's 42.5-point total invites a play on kickers, and both have an argument given their circumstances.

Brandon McManus could work if projecting a Saints cover, which likely comes from bending but not breaking. NOLA has actually done that quite well, posting the 10th-lowest rate of red-zone trips to touchdowns (51.2%). "The McManimal" has crushed it with Green Bay, missing just one of 38 total kicks. That was in the rain against the Detroit Lions.

Blake Grupe makes sense assuming it'll be tough for Rattler and company to score at all. He could be deployed from deep and has converted six of his eight 50-plus-yard kicks, including a long of 57.

McManus (10.4 FDP) gets a huge nod over Grupe (6.7) in our projections, though.

Foster Moreau ($8,000)

So thin at receiver, New Orleans will continue to lean on its two solid tight ends.

Foster Moreau is $1,000 below Juwan Johnson in salary, and he caught a touchdown behind a team-high two red-zone targets from Haener and Rattler last week. The big-bodied tight end has four scores this year.

No Saints pass-catcher has a prop on FanDuel above 3.5 receptions, so they're all sort of touchdown-or-bust propositions. Saving salary with Moreau could be helpful if Green Bay's high-salaried options truly light it up.

Get ready for Monday Night Football! All customers get a 25% Profit Boost for a LIVE wager on the Saints vs Packers game happening December 23rd. See here for full terms and conditions. Learn about today’s other offers at FanDuel Sportsbook Promos.

Interested in playing NFL DFS? Head over to FanDuel’s daily fantasy football lobby to see all the offerings for this week's slates.

Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook and FanDuel Daily Fantasy today!

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.