Rangers vs. Astros American League Championship Series Preview

The Texas Rangers and Houston Astros went down to the wire in the American League West, with Houston taking the divisional crown via tiebreaker. Following 13 regular-season head-to-head matchups, the AL West rivals meet once again in the American League Championship Series (ALCS).

The Rangers have roared to a 5-0 record in the postseason, notching a 2-0 series win against the Tampa Bay Rays and a 3-0 series victory against the Baltimore Orioles. As of October 12, Texas leads postseason teams with 51 hits and 32 runs.

The Astros are appearing in their record-setting seventh consecutive ALCS. After splitting the first two games against the Minnesota Twins, Houston took care of business with back-to-back wins to close the series in four games.

As they say, everything's bigger in Texas. This rivalry is about to turn up the heat, as this is the first postseason meeting between the Rangers and Astros. Let's dig into the matchup, including advanced stats and FanDuel Sportsbook's latest MLB odds.

Rangers vs. Astros AL Championship Series Odds: Moneyline, Totals Games, and Correct Score

Series Moneyline:

• Astros: -148
• Rangers: +126

Total Games:

• 4 (+580)
• 5 (+270)
• 6 (+215)
• 7 (+205)

Correct Score:

• Astros 4-0 (+920)
• Astros 4-1 (+520)
• Astros 4-2 (+440)
• Astros 4-3 (+420)
• Rangers 4-0 (+1300)
• Rangers 4-1 (+730)
• Rangers 4-2 (+570)
• Rangers 4-3 (+540)

Rangers vs. Astros Advanced Stats Breakdown

nERD via numberFire. Advanced statistics courtesy of FanGraphs.

Rangers (90-72/2nd in AL West):

• nERD: 0.99 (8th)
• Run Differential: +185 (3rd)
• Home Record: 50-31
• Away Record: 40-41
• Offensive Stats:
  • HRs: 233 (4th)
  • wOBA: .340 (3rd)
  • SLG: .452 (3rd)
  • BB%: 9.5% (5th)
  • K%: 22.5% (16th-worst)
• Pitching Stats:
  • SIERA: 4.24 (18th)
  • xFIP: 4.35 (18th)
  • BB%: 8.1% (11th-best)
  • K%: 22.4% (10th-worst)

Astros (90-72/1st in AL West):

• nERD: 0.87 (9th)
• Run Differential: +136 (5th)
• Home Record: 39-42
• Away Record: 51-30
• Offensive Stats:
  • HRs: 222 (7th)
  • wOBA: .332 (5th)
  • SLG: .437 (6th)
  • BB%: 8.8% (15th)
  • K%: 19.8% (3rd-best)
• Pitching Stats:
  • SIERA: 4.16 (15th)
  • xFIP: 4.30 (17th)
  • BB%: 8.8% (11th-worst)
  • K%: 23.9% (8th-best)

Rangers vs. Astros AL Championship Series Analysis

We should be in store for a very entertaining ALCS. The Rangers and Astros have similar advanced stats, holding mediocre to below-average pitching stats while boasting electric offenses. Both squads rank within the top seven of home runs, weighted on-base average (wOBA), and slugging percentage (SLG).

Texas' lineup has certainly flexed its muscle of late, averaging 6.6 runs per game in the playoffs. They also lead active playoff teams with a .282 batting average (AVG). This lineup is packed full of red-hot hitters.

Adolis Garcia has recorded a hit in every postseason game this October and comes off back-to-back two-knock games. Josh Jung is slashing .400/.409/.800 (AVG/OBP/SLG) in the playoffs, and Corey Seager is batting a blistering .429 in five postseason games.

Houston was up and down against the Twins, recording at least six runs in two games while failing to eclipse three runs in Game 2 and Game 4. The rotation and bullpen were consistent forces, holding Minnesota to 3.3 runs per game. The Twins still averaged 1.3 home runs per game, nearly on par with their regular-season average of 1.4 long balls per game.

Limiting hard contact could be a problem for the Astros. They rank 21st in home runs allowed per game. Meanwhile, the Rangers finished fourth in total home runs during the regular season. Texas has shown no signs of slowing down, averaging 1.4 big flies per game in the playoffs.

The ALCS opens on Sunday with Game 1's first pitch scheduled for 8:15 PM EST. Justin Verlander, who allowed no runs in six innings of work in Game 1 against the Twins, is expected to take the bump for Houston. In his previous 16 starts against the Rangers, Verlander has allowed 23 runs -- an average of 1.4 runs per outing. However, he surrendered four homers across his previous two starts against Texas.

According to FanDuel's MLB odds, the Astros are -148 moneyline favorites for Game 1, and the total is at 8.5 runs.

The Rangers are hoping to get back Max Scherzer from injury. He seems on track to make an appearance in the ALCS, which would create an intriguing storyline against his former teammate, Verlander.

It's beyond repetitive at this point, but this is yet another series that could come down to homers. The MLB playoffs are about getting hot at the right time, and Texas is the epitome of that so far in 2023. The National League is another perfect example, as the Arizona Diamondbacks upset the Los Angeles Dodgers thanks to the long ball.

The Astros are 9-4 in head-to-head matchups against the Rangers this season. Can Texas finally overcome its rival and win the ALCS?

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.