Rams at 49ers Single-Game NFL DFS Picks for Thursday Night Football
Two NFC West teams clinging to their playoff hopes face off in a crucial matchup on Thursday. The San Francisco 49ers are slight home favorites over the Los Angeles Rams, and the total is set at a fantasy-friendly mark.
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For those unfamiliar, single-game slates feature five flex spots with identical scoring to the main slate. However, kickers are included in these contests, and there is an "MVP" roster slot. The MVP receives 1.5 times his total fantasy points, making this spot crucial.
FanDuel Research's Brandon Gdula has done a deep dive on single-game strategy, and FanDuel Research has NFL DFS projections if you select the game from the slate tab. It's worth checking out both before making your lineups.
All NFL projections via our numbers at FanDuel Research, and NFL odds references are to FanDuel Sportsbook.
Rams at 49ers NFL DFS Picks
MVP Candidates
For this single-game slate, Brock Purdy ($14,000) leads the way in our NFL DFS projections, and despite the 49ers' struggles this season, he's shown plenty of upside, scoring 20+ points in 6 of his 12 games. He's still proven to be efficient through the air, averaging 8.7 yards per attempt and 0.15 expected points added per drop back, according to NFL Next Gen Stats. He can even pop occasionally with solid rushing numbers, too. The Rams are 28th in schedule-adjusted pass defense, so another strong outing could be in the cards.
Purdy is followed in the projections by a slew of Rams in Matthew Stafford ($12,500), Puka Nacua ($15,000), and Kyren Williams ($14,500).
As a complete zero as a runner, Stafford has a tougher path toward ceiling games, but he's exceeded 20 FanDuel points three times this year, including just last week. Given how concentrated this offense is, he's at risk of being outscored by one of his top wideouts even when he balls out, and this isn't necessarily the best matchup against a 49ers squad that's seventh in adjusted pass defense.
Over the last five games, Nacua has firmly established himself as the Rams' top wideout, leading the team in target share (36.7%), air yards share (36.4%), red zone target share (42.9%), and yards per route run (3.89). With numbers like that, his case for MVP is pretty clear.
Kyren gets the best matchup of this Rams trio, facing the 28th-ranked adjusted rush defense. While backup RB Blake Corum has started to see more consistent snaps, Williams saw an elite workload in Week 14 with 33 adjusted opportunities (carries plus 2x targets) and an 81.9% snap rate. Overall, he's averaged 24.5 adjusted opportunities per game, though he hasn't been terribly efficient with just 89.8 scrimmage yards per game.
Jauan Jennings ($10,500) and George Kittle ($11,000) are the top San Francisco pass catchers to consider.
Following the Brandon Aiyuk injury, we have three games with Purdy, Jennings, and Kittle all playing together, and in that sample, Jennings boasts a 31.2% target share and 39.0% air yards share. He's the No. 1 option in this passing attack these days, and the Rams have allowed the ninth-most FanDuel points per game to wideouts.
Kittle's 15.3% target share in the above games might not inspire confidence, but what he lacks in consistency is made up for by his ceiling when everything clicks. Last week was a perfect example, with Kittle catching all 6 of his targets for 151 yards. With Christian McCaffrey out of the picture, it's possible the 49ers' star tight end is more involved the rest of the way, and he's projected for 6+ targets tonight.
Finally, Cooper Kupp ($13,500) is a fringe MVP option with Nacua surpassing him, but he's still seeing plenty of looks behind a 26.6% target share over the past five games. He spiked for 28.6 points in Week 11, so the upside is still there when things break right.
Flex Targets
Isaac Guerendo ($12,000) -- In some surprising news, Guerendo is expected to play tonight, and we saw him go off for 128 scrimmage yards and 2 TDs off 19 adjusted opportunities before his foot injury last week. While there's still a lot of uncertainty here in case he suffers a setback or concedes more work, it isn't crazy to roll him out as a contrarian MVP if he's indeed active.
Patrick Taylor ($10,000) -- Taylor's outlook takes a significant hit if Guerendo plays, but he would be the lead back if Isaac is ultimately ruled out. Even in that latter scenario, Taylor might not have a true featured role with Ke'Shawn Vaughn, Kyle Juszczyk, and Israel Abanikanda all being candidates to steal touches.
Deebo Samuel ($9,500) -- Samuel actually projects very well for this matchup, and our Brandon Gdula highlighted him as a buy low wide receiver this week. That being said, the box-score results have been ugly, as he's averaged a paltry 24.3 scrimmage yards over his last four games. The modest salary keeps him in play.
Demarcus Robinson ($9,000) -- Robinson is listed as questionable. Even if we throw out last week's injury-shortened outing, he's seen just an 11.7% target share over the previous four games.
Jake Moody ($8,500) and Joshua Karty ($8,000) -- Neither kicker really stands out, both statistically and as potential side characters to a high-scoring contest. Moody and Karty have field goal percentages under 80% this season.
Tutu Atwell ($7,500) -- Atwell would see a big bump in snaps if Robinson is ruled out, putting him on the radar as a value option. He saw a 63.3% route rate and 10.0% target share due to Robinson's mid-game injury in Week 14, so he would presumably exceed those marks tonight.
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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.