NFL Playoff Picture: Clinching Scenarios and Key Games Entering Week 15

Just four weeks remain in the NFL's regular season, and the playoff picture still has plenty of wrinkles to be ironed out over the final month of the season.

According to numberFire's NFL Power Rankings, 13 teams enter Week 15 with at least a 79.9% playoff probability.

But certainly not all of them have punched their ticket, and not all of the other 19 teams are eliminated.

Here's what you should know ahead of Week 15.

NFL Playoff Picture

AFC Playoff Standings

1. Kansas City Chiefs (clinched AFC West)
2. Buffalo Bills (clinched AFC East)
3. Pittsburgh Steelers
4. Houston Texans
5. Baltimore Ravens
6. Los Angeles Chargers
7. Denver Broncos

The Ravens and Chargers have flipped the 5 and 6 seeds after Week 14's action.

NFC Playoff Standings

1. Detroit Lions (clinched playoff berth)
2. Philadelphia Eagles (clinched playoff berth)
3. Seattle Seahawks
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
5. Minnesota Vikings
6. Green Bay Packers
7. Washington Commanders

The Atlanta Falcons have been replaced as the 4 seed by the Buccaneers after Week 14 went Tampa Bay's way.

NFL Playoff Clinching Scenarios to Note

AFC

Texans Can Clinch the AFC South

The Texans can clinch the AFC South with a win this week plus a loss by the Indianapolis Colts against the Denver Broncos.

1. Texans win + Colts loss

Steelers Can Clinch a Playoff Berth

The Steelers can secure a playoff spot if they win or tie -- or if they get some help.

Here is their path to a playoff spot this week:

1. Steelers win or tie
2. Dolphins loss or tie + Colts loss or tie

NFC

Eagles Can Clinch the NFC East

The Eagles are already guaranteed a playoff spot but will clinch the NFC East -- most likely -- with a win and a Commanders loss. It's a little more roundabout than that, but that's the most straightforward one.

1. Eagles win + Commanders loss or tie
2. Eagles tie + Commanders loss

Vikings Can Clinch a Playoff Berth

Minnesota can shore up a playoff position with a win -- or some losses and/or ties by some NFC West teams.

1. Vikings win or tie
2. Rams loss or tie
3. Seahawks loss or tie

Packers Can Clinch a Playoff Berth

The Packers will lock up a playoff spot with a win and some help. Here's their path to the postseason in Week 15.

1. Packers win + Falcons loss or tie + 49ers/Rams tie

NFL Playoff Elimination Scenarios to Note

The Carolina Panthers, Chicago Bears, and Dallas Cowboys are at risk of elimination this week.

Six AFC teams are eliminated from the playoffs (the Las Vegas Raiders, New England Patriots, Tennessee Titans, New York Jets, Jacksonville Jaguars, and Cleveland Browns). The Cincinnati Bengals still have minimal paths even with a loss this week.

Notable NFL Playoff Implications for Week 15

This isn't a comprehensive list of big potential playoff swings, but here are some key matchups for Week 15 with playoff probability points on the line.

Indianapolis Colts at Denver Broncos

This is a critical game for the AFC playoff race, the most impactful game mathematically of the week.

The 8-5 Broncos are the current 7 seed in the AFC. numberFire gives them an 80.9% chance to reach the playoffs.

The 6-7 Indianapolis Colts are 17.7% likely to reach the postseason.

Per NextGenStats, the Colts' playoff odds fall from 51% with a win to 6% with a loss. Denver's odds shoot up to 91% with a win but down to 51% with a loss.

Even with a Colts win, the AFC playoff picture doesn't change.

Los Angeles Rams at San Francisco 49ers

This week's Thursday Night Football matchup comes with a lot of playoff implications.

The 7-6 Los Angeles Rams hold 44.2% playoff odds, per numberFire. The 6-7 San Francisco 49ers' odds are 7.0%.

According to NGS, with losses, the Rams' odds would be 16%, and the 49ers' odds would be under 1%.

Atlanta Falcons at Las Vegas Raiders

The week also ends with some key playoff implications on Monday Night Football.

The Raiders are again in the spotlight indirectly despite being eliminated themselves.

The Falcons' Week 14 loss bumped them from the current playoff picture, and NGS sees their playoff odds cut to 19% with a loss again this week.

Miami Dolphins at Houston Texans

The Miami Dolphins' overtime win kept them in the hunt last week. They face the Texans, who have a divisional crown within their grasp this week.

Miami's current playoff odds are 9.3%, per numberFire.

The NextGenStats model gives Miami a 3% playoff probability with a loss this week.

Washington Commanders at New Orleans Saints

This is virtually a last-gasp situation for the New Orleans Saints, who are 5-8 this season. Washington, meanwhile, holds the 7 seed in the NFC.

A loss still has Washington in the postseason, and NGS has them 60% likely to reach the playoffs with a loss.

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