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CasinoQatar Grand Prix Win Simulations: Can We Go Back to Ferrari?
The headliner entering this week's Formula 1 Qatar Grand Prix is, obviously, Max Verstappen.
Verstappen could (and likely will) lock up the driver's championship as early as the sprint race on Saturday, giving him his third consecutive driver's championship and giving Red Bull a championship sweep for the second straight year.
A Verstappen clinch in the sprint race would be anticlimactic. But the battle for P2 on Sunday could kick the excitement back up.
The "winner if we pretend that Max guy doesn't exist" has been different each of the past four races with McLaren taking the most recent honors via a double podium in Japan.
The betting markets seem to think that McLaren speed will carry over to Qatar with Lando Norris leading the non-Verstappen drivers at +850 to win in FanDuel Sportsbook's Formula 1 betting odds.
My model prior to practice has things more flat behind Verstappen, and it could imply there's value in betting the non-McLarens.
Driver | Win Odds | Podium | Top 6 | Top 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max Verstappen | 71.7% | 85.4% | 86.7% | 86.7% |
| Lando Norris | 5.7% | 38.4% | 74.1% | 86.3% |
| Carlos Sainz | 5.6% | 39.5% | 74.5% | 86.5% |
| Sergio Perez | 4.4% | 34.8% | 71.6% | 86.2% |
| Charles Leclerc | 4.3% | 31.7% | 69.4% | 86.2% |
| Lewis Hamilton | 3.9% | 27.5% | 66.5% | 85.9% |
| George Russell | 3.2% | 24.1% | 62.4% | 85.0% |
Once again, the model is telling me to buy into Ferrari.
Both Carlos Sainz and Charles Leclerc are higher in the model than their implied odds at FanDuel. For Sainz, that applies in every market (win/podium/T6/T10). For Leclerc, the value is primarily in the upside markets.
Personally, I buy what the model is saying. Since the summer break, we've seen Ferrari have great speed on a variety of track types, including getting a win in Singapore. McLaren was in a lull up until Singapore, and Mercedes hasn't had quite the same upside.
That doesn't mean I'm taking Sainz or Leclerc to top Verstappen, even though I'm showing value. Rather, I'd prefer to take a ladder approach with Sainz, betting his non-outright markets incrementally to give myself upside should he reach the podium. Individually, the podium is the best market for Sainz with my model putting him at 39.5%, up from 17.5% implied at +470. This likely means I'm too high on Sainz (and I do think the model is too low on Oscar Piastri, partly explaining the gap), but I don't think he should be +470 given the recent speed.
The podium is the one bet I'd want for Leclerc. He's also in the 30s (31.7%) while sitting at +470, a decently substantial gap. I've seen enough from Ferrari to believe the market's lower than it should be on them, even if the model is overselling them a bit.
Have a bet you like for Sunday's Formula 1 race? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook's latest Formula 1 betting odds to see where the value lies.
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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.