Premier League Picks for the Final Day: EPL Best Bets for Matchweek 38 (May 24, 2026)

By Jake Osgathorpe (@JAKEOZZ)

The final day of the 2025-26 Premier League campaign takes place on Sunday, with a host of things still to play for in the race for Europe and the fight to avoid relegation.

Jake Osgathorpe is on hand to go through all 10 games and select the best bets. Let's dig in.

All EPL soccer odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook and may change after this article is published.

Final Day EPL: Premier League Best Bets for Matchweek 38

Brighton vs Manchester United

Score prediction: Brighton 3-1 Manchester United

The best angle here is to simply back Brighton to win. The Seagulls still need points to lock up a Europa League spot, while Manchester United have little left to play for.

Fabian Hürzeler’s side were excellent despite last week’s 1-0 loss at Leeds, dominating the xG battle 3.06 to 0.39. Their underlying numbers have been elite lately, ranking among the league’s best for both chance creation and defensive process over the last two months.

Against a United side that’s struggled away from home under Michael Carrick, Brighton look well positioned to get the job done.

Best bet – Brighton to win (-115)

Burnley vs Wolves

Score prediction: Burnley 1-1 Wolves

This is a fight to avoid finishing bottom, not that anyone really cares…

Wolves have been dreadful away from home, still winless on the road with 13 losses and just seven goals scored. A Burnley win to nil initially looked tempting given 11 of Wolves’ 18 away games have been defeats without scoring.

The problem? Burnley rarely keep clean sheets themselves, managing just three in 37 league matches. That makes this a game best left alone from a betting perspective.

Best bet – NO BET

Crystal Palace vs Arsenal

Score prediction: Crystal Palace 1-2 Arsenal

With neither Crystal Palace nor newly crowned Arsenal having anything meaningful left to play for domestically, this has all the makings of a low-intensity game. Both sides are focused on upcoming European finals, so heavy rotation is expected.

That makes the cards market appealing, specifically Under 1.5 Cards. Referee Farai Hallam averages just 3.0 cards per game, and this bet has already cashed in both meetings between these teams this season, with both of those matchups having higher stakes than this.

Best bet – Under 1.5 cards (-108)

Fulham vs Newcastle

Score prediction: Fulham 3-3 Newcastle

This has the feel of one of those final-day games that could completely open up. With little at stake and emotions high in what could be a farewell game for Fulham manager Marco Silva, expect both teams to play with freedom.

Over 3.5 Goals looks worth backing. The last four meetings between these sides have averaged 3.25 goals, while Newcastle have already been involved in two 4+ goal games in their last three.

Best bet – Over 3.5 goals (+156)

Liverpool vs Brentford

Score prediction: Liverpool 1-2 Brentford

Nathan Collins has registered nine shots in his last 11 appearances, and this matchup sets up well for another effort. Brentford rank among the league’s best at generating chances from set pieces, even if they’ve underperformed their underlying numbers.

Liverpool remain vulnerable defending dead balls, conceding a league-high 20 set-piece goals this season. With Brentford needing a win to keep their European hopes alive, expect the Bees to attack aggressively and generate plenty of set-piece opportunities.

Best bet – Nathan Collins 1+ total shot (-125)

Manchester City vs Aston Villa

Score prediction: Manchester City 3-0 Aston Villa

It should be a celebration at the Etihad as FA Cup and Carabao Cup winners Manchester City host Europa League winners Aston Villa in what could be the final game for both Bernardo Silva and Pep Guardiola. With neither side having anything meaningful left to play for, this projects as a low-intensity, almost exhibition-style matchup.

That makes Under 1.5 Cards appealing. City games on the final day are typically quiet disciplinarily, with five of their last seven final day games seeing this bet land, while Villa rank among the league’s least-carded teams. Referee Andy Madley also averages just 1.42 cards per game on Matchday 38.

Best bet – Under 1.5 cards (+192)

Nottingham Forest vs Bournemouth

Score prediction: Nottingham Forest 2-2 Bournemouth

Nottingham Forest are safe, while Bournemouth have already locked up a top-seven finish and need just a point to secure sixth. The visitors are unbeaten in 17, but at around +105, the price feels too short for them to win given Forest’s strong home form.

There’s not enough value either way, so this is a game best left alone from a betting standpoint.

Best bet – NO BET

Sunderland vs Chelsea

Score prediction: Sunderland 1-0 Chelsea

This game has major European implications, but Chelsea’s motivation is questionable. If results elsewhere go against them, eighth place — and another Conference League campaign — could be the best they can achieve, something the club may not view as a priority ahead of a new era under Xabi Alonso.

That opens the door for Sunderland, who will likely be fully motivated in their final home game of an excellent season. The Black Cats have won eight home matches, performed well against top teams, and already beat Chelsea earlier this season.

Chelsea have also struggled badly going forward lately, generating just 0.63 xG against Tottenham in midweek, with their per game average over the last 12 standing at a paltry 0.98.

Best bet – Sunderland to win (+250)

Tottenham vs Everton

Score prediction: Tottenham 0-1 Everton

Remember last season, when Everton — with nothing to play for — went to Newcastle on the final day and won 1-0, nearly costing the Magpies a Champions League place? A similar scenario could unfold here.

All the pressure is on Tottenham, and Spurs have struggled badly at home, winning just two of 18 league games. Everton, meanwhile, travel well and may enjoy playing spoiler with no pressure attached.

With Spurs averaging just 1.06 expected goals per game under Roberto De Zerbi, this could turn tense quickly and the upset is worth chancing.

Best bet – Everton to win (+320)

West Ham vs Leeds

Score prediction: West Ham 1-1 Leeds

West Ham simply have to beat a Leeds side with nothing left to play for to have any chance of surviving — but it won’t be easy. Leeds have lost just one of their last 14 away games, and even with injuries, they continue to compete hard.

The cards market stands out again, especially Crysencio Summerville to be booked. The winger has been carded seven times this season, including four in his last nine, and could be facing relegation against his former club.

Leeds defender Joe Rodon also appeals given he’ll be facing Summerville on multiple occasions. Summerville draws 2.52 fouls per 90, and Rodon has been carded in two of his last three starts. Referee Anthony Taylor has averaged 4.5 cards per game across his last 18, too.

Best bet – Crysencio Summerville to be booked (+360)

Best bet – Joe Rodon to be booked (+490)

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.