Fixture congestion is ramping up, and after a slew of midweek action, every team in the Premier League will play again this weekend.

Matchweek 16 -- which starts on Saturday -- features 10 matches and is highlighted by clashes Aston Villa-Arsenal and Tottenham-Newcastle.

When looking at the EPL soccer odds at FanDuel Sportsbook, which bets make the most sense for this matchweek?

EPL Betting: Matchweek 16

Arsenal at Aston Villa (12:30 p.m. ET Saturday)

Arsenal Moneyline (+110)

Fresh off their historical victory over Manchester City on Wednesday, Aston Villa will host current league leaders Arsenal on Saturday.

To say that Villa was the better team against City would be the understatement of the century. They dominated the defending champions in a way that Pep Guardiola's City hadn't been beaten before.

The final scoreline -- 1-0 -- was a kind one for City. Villa won the expected goals battle, per FBRef, 2.3-0.6, and finished with a decisive lead on shots (22-2), shots on target (7-2), corners (6-0), and crosses (17-7). City had more possession (54%), but they did almost nothing with it, especially in the second half.

After the victory, Villa are up to third on the league table. They rank fourth in xG (28.2), eighth in fewest xG allowed (20.8), and sixth in xG difference per 90 (+0.49). They are a solid side and deserving of their place in the top four.

That said, some of Villa's victory over City has to do with the form of the defending champions. In recent history, City has been the class of the EPL. A victory over Guardiola's bunch, by any score, is a monumental accomplishment, and defeating them how Villa did is unheard of.

This City team is not on the same level as what we've grown accustomed to. Entering Wednesday, they had drawn three matches in a row -- albeit against Chelsea, Liverpool, and Tottenham. Their xG difference per 90 currently ranks third (+0.97) in the league. Over the past six seasons, City has never finished with an xG difference below +1.0 -- their average over that span is +1.39. So far, this is the worst City side we have seen in over half a decade.

Coming off that emotional victory, Villa now has to host the Gunners. Arsenal survived a scare at Luton Town on Wednesday, winning 4-3 thanks to a late goal, but their underlying metrics reinforce their standing on top of the table.

They rank seventh in xG scored (27.6) but first in fewest xG allowed (11.5) by a significant margin. In their last 13 matches, they have permitted more than 1.0 xG only four times. They rank first in xG difference per 90 (+1.07) and have lost just once this season.

Arsenal is a clear-cut above the rest of the league right now, and their xG difference per 90 is more than double Aston Villa's.

The Gunners have struggled against better opposition on the road this season, drawing with Chelsea and losing to Newcastle, but I believe they are the better side in this one. Before their win over City, Aston Villa drew 2-2 with Bournemouth on December 3rd, so they're not invincible.

A chance to back the current league leaders -- and the team with the best xG difference -- at +110 to win is a chance I am willing to take.

Brentford at Sheffield United (10:00 a.m. ET Saturday)

Brentford Moneyline (-125)

Brentford have lost three of their last four matches, but they have been a better side than the final scorelines would lead you to believe.

Two of those losses came against Arsenal and Liverpool. Against Liverpool, they lost 3-0, but on xG, they lost just 1.7-1.6. Against the Gunners, they lost 1-0, but on xG, the margin was closer at 1.6-1.1. The same can be said of their most recent loss to Brighton. The match finished 2-1, but on xG, it was a tie, 1.5-1.5.

All in all, their three losses came by a combined score of 6-1, but the xG tally looks much better, with the Bees losing only 4.8-4.2 on xG. On the season, Brentford ranks fifth in xG difference per 90 (+0.55), one spot ahead of Aston Villa. The issue for the Bees is that they have been underperforming their expected outcomes on both ends of the pitch. They've scored 23 goals from 27.9 xG and conceded 21 goals from 19.7 xG allowed.

The area where they have underperformed their xG numbers the least is against lesser opposition. In their four games against opponents ranked inside the bottom six in xG difference per 90, Brentford has three wins and one draw by a combined score of 10-2. In those matches, their xG advantage was 11.5-2.3.

The Bees have had little issue getting results against weaker sides, and on Saturday, they face the weakest side in the EPL -- Sheffield United.

If a metric exists, Sheffield United likely ranks last or close to last in it. The Blades sit last in all of xG scored (11.8), xG allowed (32.5), and xG difference per 90 (-1.38).

They have been historically bad so far this season. FBRef's xG metrics go back six seasons, and since then, only one team has finished a campaign with an xG difference per 90 lower than -1.0 (Norwich City in 2021-22 at -1.14). On average, the worst team in the EPL over the past six seasons had an xG difference per 90 of -0.83 -- Sheffield is more than a half-goal worse than that.

During their historically great run over the past six seasons, Manchester City has an average xG difference per 90 of +1.39 -- so far this season Sheffield (-1.39) is as bad as City have been good.

Bretford are away from home in this one, but they have a third-best xG difference (+3.1) on the road this season. Sheffield United's xG difference per 90 is the same at home as it is on the road. Their only win this season did come at home. But overall, the Blades have enjoyed little to no advantage at home.

Despite their recent results, Brentford are a deserving favorite, and I like them to take all three points at -125.

Player Props

Julian Alvarez to Score (+115): City have an excellent chance to break out of their four-game winless drought on Saturday. Facing Luton Town, who have allowed the second-most xG (31.6), Alvarez is set up for success. Across 17 games in all competitions this season, Luton has failed to keep a single clean sheet. They have permitted at least 2.0 xG in six of their last seven matches. City should get back on track, and Alvarez can get in on the scoring.

Dominic Solanke to Score (+270): Manchester United had their best performance of the season against Chelsea on Wednesday, but this is a United side that has struggled with, among other things, consistency and defense. Have they turned a corner? Until we see it multiple times, it is tough to believe they have. United have allowed the sixth-most xG (25.1), and over their last four matches in all competitions, they are permitting an average of 1.95 xG per match. Solanke ranks sixth in xG (7.5) this season and eighth in shots on target (15).

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.