Premier League Betting: Best Bets for Matchweek 2
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The English Premier League is off and running for the 2024-25 campaign.
When looking at the EPL soccer odds at FanDuel Sportsbook, which bets make the most sense for this matchweek?
EPL Betting Picks for Matchweek 2
Manchester United at Brighton (7:30 a.m. ET Saturday)
Brighton Moneyline (+145)
Brighton are coming off an impressive opening-day win at Everton, and I think they'll keep the good times rolling Saturday when Manchester United come to town.
In Matchweek 1, Brighton went to Goodison Park and thrashed the Toffees by a 3-0 score. Per FBRef's expected goals (xG) model, it wasn't quite as lopsided -- 1.4-0.5 in favor of Brighton -- but it was still a good showing from the Seagulls in their first match under Fabian Hürzeler.
United, meanwhile, needed a late goal to beat Fulham at Old Trafford, although the xG numbers (2.4-0.4 for United) paint a much better picture.
Last season, Brighton was the better side between these two, finishing with an xG differential of +1.4, compared to Man United's clip of -12.5. The two squads split their league matchups, with each road team winning, but Brighton had the xG edge in both (1.7-1.0 and 1.7-1.3).
United was poor on the road a season ago, giving up the fifth-most xG away from home. It's an early start Saturday, and it's a long trip down from Manchester -- two things working against the Red Devils.
Add it all together, and I'm taking Brighton to win at +145.
Chelsea at Wolves (9 a.m. ET Sunday)
Wolves and Draw (+105)
Chelsea's transfer strategy has made them the butt of jokes this summer, but overall, I'm bullish on their chances this year and like a lot of the talent they've accumulated. With that said, it's probably going to take some time for all that talent to mesh together, and I think Wolves can get a result on Sunday.
Both of these sides had rough opening-week matchups.
Wolves opened the campaign with a 2-0 loss in a brutal away matchup at Arsenal. They gave a pretty good account of themselves, though, losing the xG battle only 1.2-0.5. Chelsea fell 2-0 at home to Manchester City but actually amassed 1.0 xG to City's 0.8, so it was a good showing from the Blues.
The Blues are listed at -135 to win, and that may be overvaluing them a good bit. Massey Ratings gives Chelsea just a 43% chance to win. The -135 moneyline implies win odds of 57.4%. But rather than take Wolves to win, I prefer to back them to win or draw at +105.
Last season, Wolves beat all of Man City, Chelsea and Spurs at home and drew with both Villa and Newcastle, so they're capable of taking points off the big boys at Molineux. They actually did the double on Chelsea, winning 2-1 at home and 4-2 at Stamford Bridge. I like these +105 odds on them to get at least a point on Sunday.
Player Props
James Maddison to Score or Assist (-110): Spurs had a very Spurs game at Leicester on Monday, dominating for large chunks before giving away a goal and then hanging on for a draw. They are in a smash spot this week at home versus Everton. Maddison was a bright spot in the opener, notching an assist and finishing with eight shot-creating actions, per FBRef. At home against an Everton side that just got bulldozed by Brighton, Spurs could have a field day, and Maddison -- who handles corners and set pieces -- should be a central figure in the attack.
Kevin De Bruyne to Have 2+ Shots on Target (+185): Welcome to the EPL, Ipswich Town. After opening their campaign versus Liverpool, the Tractor Boys have to travel to Manchester City this weekend. Yikes. Ipswich went toe to toe with Liverpool for a half before getting run over in the second half. I think they'll get overwhelmed by City on Saturday, and so do oddsmakers as City is -220 to go over 2.5 goals. With City likely to dominate the ball, De Bruyne should spend a lot of time in dangerous areas, and while he's more of a pass-first attacking-midfielder, KDB isn't afraid to fire shots on goal. He put five shots on goal across two matches against promoted Luton Town last year, and I think this clash will go similarly to those.
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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.