Portugal vs Spain: Prediction, Picks, Lineups & Best Bets

World Cup 2026 Round of 16 · Ronaldo vs Yamal · Best Bets · FanDuel odds

📖 Match Preview

This is the tie of the round — two of Europe's biggest football nations, 40 all-time meetings (Spain leads 18-7-15), and a genuine grudge match given Portugal beat Spain on penalties in last year's Nations League final. Portugal have taken the harder road here: draws with DR Congo and Colombia sandwiched around a 5-0 rout of Uzbekistan, then a stoppage-time Gonçalo Ramos winner needed to see off Croatia 2-1 in the Round of 32. Cristiano Ronaldo scored the opener from the penalty spot in that game — his first-ever World Cup knockout goal after eight previous ties without one — before being substituted with roughly ten minutes left, visibly frustrated at the decision.

Spain arrive as the tournament's most complete team: unbeaten, yet to concede a single goal, and coming off a 3-0 dismantling of Austria in which they didn't allow a single shot on target. Lamine Yamal's minutes have been carefully managed all tournament (19 minutes vs Cape Verde, 45 vs Saudi Arabia, 76 vs Uruguay), but he started and played 85 minutes against Austria — a strong sign he's back up to full speed for the biggest test Spain has faced yet. Mikel Oyarzabal has quietly been the tournament's joint-top scorer, directly contributing to five of Spain's eight goals.

The history between these sides adds real weight. At the 2018 World Cup, Portugal and Spain played out a legendary 3-3 draw in the group stage, with Ronaldo scoring a hat-trick including a stoppage-time free kick equalizer — one of the signature moments of that entire tournament. Nico Williams and Yeremy Pino remain out for Spain, but otherwise both squads arrive close to full strength for what should be the most closely-fought tie of the knockout rounds so far.

🩺 Team News & Injuries

📋 Predicted Lineups

📊 Key Stats & Head-to-Head

⭐ Best Bets — FanDuel

All odds FanDuel Sportsbook · 3-Way Moneyline (90 min): Portugal +310 / Draw +260 / Spain -115 · 2 Up Early Payout: Portugal +270 / Draw +260 / Spain -120 · To Qualify (reg+ET+pens): Portugal +178 / Spain -220 · Anytime Goalscorer (top of board): Oyarzabal +145, Yamal +175, Ronaldo +185, Ferran Torres +195, N.Williams +240 (OUT — do not bet), Olmo +300, Baena +320, Felix +350, Leao +420, Fabian Ruiz +460, Fernandes +470 · To Score or Assist: Yamal -125, Oyarzabal -110, Ferran Torres +110, Olmo +155, Baena +155, Ronaldo +150 · Player 1+ SOT: Yamal -360, Oyarzabal -300, Ferran Torres -260, Ronaldo -260, Olmo -145 · First Goalscorer: Oyarzabal +470, Yamal +550, Ronaldo +600, Ferran Torres +600, Olmo +900 · Correct Score: Portugal 1-0 +1200, Draw 0-0 +1300, Spain 0-1 +700, Portugal 2-0 +2200, Draw 1-1 +600, Spain 0-2 +950, Portugal 2-1 +1200, Draw 2-2 +1100, Spain 1-2 +700, Portugal 3-0 +5500 · BTTS Yes -158 / No +124 · O/U 1.5: -420 / +310 · O/U 2.5: -130 / +106 · O/U 3.5: +198 / -250 · Nico Williams and Yeremy Pino both confirmed out for Spain · No injuries reported for Portugal · AT&T Stadium, Arlington TX · Tomorrow, Monday July 6, kickoff 3:00 PM ET · FOX/Telemundo · Winner faces USA/Belgium winner in the Quarterfinal · Must be 21+ · Gambling Problem? 1-800-GAMBLER