Patrick Mahomes Super Bowl History: How Has the Chiefs' Star Fared in the Big Game?

We are now six years into Patrick Mahomes' tenure as the Kansas City Chiefs' quarterback, and we've never seen anything like it. The Texas Tech Red Raiders alum has already won two Super Bowls and has made it as far as the AFC Championship game in each of his six seasons as a starter.

We're witnessing history here, folks.

This coming Sunday, Mahomes and the Chiefs will be appearing in their fourth Super Bowl together as they take on the San Francisco 49ers. And as the reigning Super Bowl champs, they'll have a chance to become the eighth team in NFL history to win the Super Bowl in back-to-back seasons.

According to FanDuel Sportsbook's NFL odds, the Chiefs are 2.5-point underdogs to the 49ers in a game with a 47.5-point total. But is it really safe to bet against someone that already has such an extensive track record of playoff dominance?

Patrick Mahomes' Super Bowl History

A Narrative Overview

As many may remember, Mahomes entered the league as the 10th overall pick (and second quarterback drafted) in the 2017 NFL Draft. He spent his rookie season learning from the bench while then-starter Alex Smith put up career numbers and guided Kansas City to a 10-6 record. That team fell to the Tennessee Titans in the Wild Card Round of the playoffs -- they've made it past the Divisional Round game in every season since.

In his first year as the starter, Mahomes set records with the Chiefs. At just 22 years old, he became the third player in NFL history to throw for 50 touchdown passes in a single season. That Chiefs team fell to the eventual Super Bowl-winning New England Patriots in the AFC Championship Game, losing a nail-biter to a contentious offsides penalty on the Chiefs' defense.

The Chiefs have made the Super Bowl in three of the four seasons since that heartbreaking play, with Mahomes' excellent quarterbacking guiding them along the way. They bounced back the following campaign to claim their first Super Bowl win of the Mahomes era in Super Bowl 54, battling to a close victory over some of the same 49ers they'll be playing this coming Sunday. Mahomes stole the show in that one, leading his team to three touchdowns over the final seven minutes of play.

The 2020 Chiefs took on the Tom Brady-led Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Super Bowl 55, falling short in spite of Mahomes' superhuman efforts (see: below) to keep KC in the game. The star quarterback made play after play under near constant pressure, only to have his receivers drop multiple would-be touchdowns in the 31-9 loss.

The Chiefs missed Super Bowl 56 after a narrow loss to the Cincinnati Bengals in the AFC Championship but won their second championship ring in Super Bowl 57 last season.

Mahomes was electric in that victory over the Philadelphia Eagles, recording a sterling 131.8 QB rating while throwing 3 touchdowns with no interceptions, sacks, or fumbles. He even rushed for 44 yards on 6 carries to help seal the deal.

Just one year later, Mahomes has a chance to become the fifth quarterback in NFL history to win at least three Super Bowls -- and he's still just 28.

As long as Mahomes is in the league, Brady's seven-ring record will be under siege.

Mahomes' Statistical History

Mahomes has already racked up enough playoff wins and appearances to warrant comparing his splits for in-season, playoff, and Super Bowl games -- so let's take a look at them:

The first thing that immediately jumps off the graph to me is that Mahomes' play seems to get better in the playoffs. His already-elite 103.5 in-season QB rating ticks up to 106.3 in his 17 career playoff games during which he has thrown a whopping 39 touchdowns (over two per game) to just 7 total interceptions.

However, his stats take a noticeable dip in the Big Game -- while he has averaged 8.30 and 8.41 adjusted yards per attempt in the regular season and playoffs, respectively, that mark drops to just 5.58 adjusted yards per attempt during his three Super Bowl starts. Furthermore, 4 of the 7 interceptions he's thrown in the playoffs have come in Super Bowl games. He's -105 to throw an interception against the Niners on Sunday, according to FanDuel Sportsbook.

Overall, it makes sense that a quarterback's numbers take a hit in the Super Bowl -- after all, we can assume they're playing against one of the best teams and coaching staffs in the NFL. And considering Mahomes' opponents in those games, we can excuse his relative lack of production:

Each of Mahomes' three Super Bowl opponents have ranked eighth-best in the league in points allowed, while two of the three ranked second in yards allowed and one ranked sixth.

In other words, he's been tasked with taking on some of the best defenses we've seen over the last few years, and he has risen to the occasion more often than not. He still played well enough to earn Super Bowl MVP honors in each of his two wins, and his +140 Super Bowl MVP odds lead the pack for Super Bowl LVIII.

He'll be taking on a similarly strong defense on Sunday -- at least on paper. The 2023 49ers ranked third in points allowed and eighth in yards allowed, but San Fran checked in as roughly a league-average defense overall, according to numberFire's schedule-adjusted metrics. They've permitted 52 points across two postseason games this year, and those came against Jordan Love and Jared Goff.

If you think Mahomes will be able to carve up the 49ers' defense through the air, consider betting the over on his passing yards prop, which is set at 262.5 yards.

What to Watch for on Sunday

We've grown used to seeing Mahomes and the Chiefs produce wildly prolific scoring offenses during his time with the team. That changed this year -- they ranked 15th in total points scored. But even while the team's overall scoring fell off compared to previous seasons, the star quarterback's ability to avoid negative plays shined brightly.

Over the past two playoffs (six games), Mahomes has taken just five total sacks and has not thrown an interception. He has taken on some of the toughest competition in the league in those contests, and they haven't forced him to blink. The Baltimore Ravens' league-best defense was barely able to faze Mahomes in the AFC Championship game -- particularly in the first half -- and were the first team in these playoffs to sack him.

Early bettors are keen on Mahomes' savant-like ability to avoid negative plays. The 49ers' sack total prop, which is set at 2.5 sacks, is heavily leaning towards the under (-215 odds). Considering that the 49ers averaged 2.8 sacks per game in the regular season, it's clear how much bettors respect Mahomes ability to avoid taking sacks.

So, when you have the game on this Sunday, keep your eyes on Mahomes in the pocket. You're bound to see him create positive yardage out of plays that should have ended in sacks. He's a master at turning nothing into something.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.