One Running Back to Target in Each Round of Your Fantasy Football Draft

Though there are plenty of differing strategies on how to acquire great running backs in fantasy football, there is no arguing that they're necessary.

In many ways, running back is still the fundamental position of fantasy football. Any time a quarterback drops back to pass, any of five eligible receivers -- usually including a running back -- can get called upon, but when teams turn to the ground, it's typically a short list of 1-2 names for each team who'll likely tote the rock.

This makes their workloads easier to project, and they've got increased chances to score touchdowns close to the goal line than a pass-catcher. If a run play is called, they will have a chance to score.

Per FantasyPros, Christian McCaffrey was the RB1 by average draft position (ADP) a year ago and finished as the RB1 on a points-per-game basis. Kyren Williams was the RB71 by ADP and finished as the RB2. Elite producers can be had through every single round of the draft as both were in at least 20.0% of ESPN's league-winning managers' lineups last season.

With that in mind, I'm going to highlight a running back that should be available in the general middle of each round of fantasy drafts this season -- excusing some slight cheating where necessary.

All in all, you'll hopefully leave here with a grocery list of running backs to pick up at the store. Like an average husband, the hope is you'll return with at least some of what's on it.

If you're looking for wide receivers, that piece is also available.

Note: A player's ADP data comes from FantasyPros' half-PPR data. The basis of 12-player league rounds was used in this piece.

One Running Back to Target in Each Round of Fantasy Football Drafts

Round 1

Bijan Robinson, Atlanta Falcons (6.0 ADP)

In a previous era, the overall RB2 wasn't available in the middle-ish range of the first round, but elite wide receivers like CeeDee Lamb, Tyreek Hill, and Amon-Ra St. Brown are pushing the position back a bit further.

With that the case, Bijan Robinson could be available in the top five, and he's the picture-perfect cast member for a "Hero RB" strategy. Per FantasyPros' historical data, Robinson was the overall RB9 in half-PPR formats last year amidst a rookie season that felt much worse -- most of which was inflicted by a jettisoned head coach who had an obsession with reserve skill players.

Raheem Morris and his new coaching staff have promised a "Christian McCaffrey workload" for Robinson, and the eighth-overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft might just have the talent to pay it off.

Especially considering CMC's gigantic workload in 2023 (including the playoffs), I made a case for Robinson to potentially be 2024's top overall running back in a new-look Falcons offense that doubled down on solid quarterback play with Kirk Cousins and Michael Penix Jr. this offseason. Atlanta's weak schedule in the NFC South only helps his argument.

Round 2

Derrick Henry, Baltimore Ravens (20.7 ADP)

Derrick Henry is going a bit earlier in best-ball formats for his multi-score-week potential, but in normal season-long formats, he's likely available for most of the second round in his enticing new environment.

The Ravens appear to be waving goodbye to their awful committees of years past to feed their newly acquired tailback. Henry's primary backup is Justice Hill as a passing-down compliment. We dreamed of times like this in Baltimore.

At 30 years old as a tailback, there is a bit of concern that Henry might not have the spring in the step needed to be a second-round RB, but he still averaged a tremendous 0.31 rushing yards over expectation per carry (RYOE/c) last season behind a porous Tennessee Titans offensive line, per NFL's NextGenStats. Ranking 16th among qualifying backs in that regard, he didn't lose a step as much as his situation did.

When looking at FanDuel's NFL win total odds, Baltimore (10.5) should be ahead in quite a few games. Henry could post some monstrous weeks with elite goal-line work, and he's been a lineup staple with at least 15 games played in all but one season thus far.

Round 3

Isiah Pacheco, Kansas City Chiefs (27.7 ADP)

The current third-round setup is only a further argument to look at a Hero RB strategy. As of now, Isiah Pacheco, Josh Jacobs, and Rachaad White are the only three backs going around this range.

Pacheco is definitely going closer to the end of the second, so this might be a place to pass on an RB altogether. Quarterbacks and tight ends will begin to fly off the board here, as well. However, Kansas City's featured back is a good snag if you can get him.

My colleagues have put in work on Pacheco. Annie Nader examined the trade-off of the Chiefs' new weapons with Pacheco's fantasy value, and Jim Sannes points out how Kansas City's lofty win total (11.5) also works in the tailback's favor.

With Jerick McKinnon still a free agent, Pacheco's lone backfield competition is Clyde Edwards-Helaire -- the same competition that allowed him to play 73.4% of the snaps and see 25.3 adjusted opportunities per game in eight games last season (including playoffs) that McKinnon missed with a groin issue.

I've got Pacheco ranked over round-two staples Kyren Williams and De'Von Achane due to his role in an offense that'll be elite the majority of Patrick Mahomes' career.

Round 4

Joe Mixon, Houston Texans (43.7 ADP)

Even if you're a "Zero RB" strategy truther, I think positioning to nab Joe Mixon in the fourth is the ideal way to approach a pick closer to the turn this season.

As the Texans are poised to take the next step after a stellar rookie season from C.J. Stroud, there's an argument to be made (and one I have made) that Mixon is the safest place to invest in fantasy football. Nico Collins, Dalton Schultz, and Tank Dell jockeyed for production when sharing the field together last season, and now they've added Stefon Diggs' six straight 1,000-yard seasons to the fold.

After Devin Singletary left in free agency, Mixon should now be the go-to option in almost all situations -- especially on passing downs. Dameon Pierce and Cam Akers have combined for just 67 catches since the start of 2022 despite decent chunks of that sample as starters.

Mixon handled at least a 62.0% snap share and 22.5 adjusted opportunities per game in each of his last two seasons with the Cincinnati Bengals, missing only three total games during this period. He's ready for an every-down role in Stroud's backfield.

Round 5

Rhamondre Stevenson, New England Patriots (59.7 ADP)

The Patriots' offense was a place where all fantasy football fun went to die last season, so Rhamondre Stevenson's mini breakout might have gone a bit unnoticed.

As mentioned in his full preview, Stevenson posted 14.1 half-PPR fantasy points per game (FPPG) on 23.8 adjusted opportunities per game from Weeks 6 through 12 before a season-ending ankle injury. Shutting him down likely had to do with the Pats' 2-10 record to that point.

Changes were made; this will be the first season in Foxboro since 1999 without Bill Belichick. Alex Van Pelt left the Cleveland Browns to be the team's offensive coordinator, and they drafted quarterback Drake Maye and wide receiver Ja'Lynn Polk with their first two picks in the draft.

Van Pelt's Browns have been fantasy-relevant for the past four years, and Maye was regarded as a top prospect, yet while we're buying Chicago Bears and Washington Commanders stock just fine, the Patriots are left for dead in most fantasy football circles.

Though Antonio Gibson was added to the fold, he's already missed time in camp. This could easily be Rhamondre's backfield on an offense that exceeds expectations.

Round 6

Zamir White, Las Vegas Raiders (70.3 ADP)

Rather than shell out big bucks for Josh Jacobs, the Las Vegas Raiders let him walk in the offseason. A huge reason why was likely how well Zamir White played down the stretch last season.

White already answered how well he'd handle an every-down role in the NFL, posting at least 12 half-PPR points in each of the Raiders' last four games. He played 69.4% of the snaps and saw 27.5 adjusted opportunities per contest, including 3.3 targets per game.

Las Vegas' quarterback situation is one of the worst in the league behind Gardner Minshew and Aidan O'Connell, but Pro Football Focus (PFF)'s 19th-ranked offensive line should give them a decent amount of time to get the ball to Davante Adams, Jakobi Meyers, and Brock Bowers as an elite corps of weapons.

Though late-round rookie Dylan Laube is receiving some praise at Raiders camp, this backfield should still be White's to lose -- especially around the goal line. He's easily got the best role in this area as James Conner, D'Andre Swift, and Najee Harris will have quite a bit of competition to fend off.

Round 7

Zack Moss, Cincinnati Bengals (81.3 ADP)

I was truly torn between Zack Moss and Tony Pollard in this round, but Moss gets the tiebreaker for me in a better offense with a competitor in the backfield I'm less worried about taking significant work.

Moss replaces the aforementioned Joe Mixon in a top-shelf offense led by Joe Burrow, who -- when healthy -- has been a lock for the AFC Championship game or deeper in his young career. Mixon had a 69.5% snap rate for the Stripes last season, and we saw Moss eclipse that mark in all six games that Jonathan Taylor missed due to injury last year for the Indianapolis Colts.

Per NextGenStats, Moss (-0.10 RYOE/c) outperformed Mixon (-0.13) as a ball-carrier last season when both were largely inefficient. However, Moss' mediocre -10.6% catch rate over expectation in 2023 is a clear indication he could lose some passing-game work -- as Mixon did -- to sophomore runner Chase Brown.

Brown's 5'9" frame isn't a good fit for a huge workload, though. That's especially true in the red zone, where the Bengals gave Mixon 4.5 total opportunities per game last year.

My colleague Riley Thomas did a deep dive into this backfield and settled on Moss of the two at ADP. After all, he should still see the vast majority of scoring chances for an offense looking to rebound in 2024.

Round 8

Javonte Williams, Denver Broncos (98.3 ADP)

We're starting to get into no man's land in the eighth round where we're into the ambiguous backfields for poor offenses like the Washington Commanders, New York Giants, Carolina Panthers, and Denver Broncos.

Of them, Denver has the best candidate to emerge as a true featured back. Javonte Williams is now a second year clear of a 2021 ACL injury, and that's tremendous news for his potential fantasy production. News flies this time of year, but reports of a leaner Williams directly from the source might be worth something.

In 2021, Williams averaged an outstanding 10.9 half-PPR FPPG per game when splitting work with Melvin Gordon behind Drew Lock. He quietly averaged 10.9 FPPG last season on 20.8 adjusted opportunities per game, separating from Jaleel McLaughlin and Samaje Perine as the year progressed. He also got 53.8% of Denver's total red zone carries last season.

A noteworthy part of his production was 3.6 targets per game, and with Bo Nix in the fold, expect more of those for Broncos running backs. Nix's 6.8 average depth of target (aDOT) with the Oregon Ducks was the lowest in 2024's entire rookie class. Sean Payton's offense with the New Orleans Saints also was notorious for feeding Alvin Kamara plenty of targets.

Denver might struggle to win games, but this could be a signature campaign for Javonte Williams at easily the lowest ADP of his career.

Round 9

Ezekiel Elliott, Dallas Cowboys (112.3 ADP)

While liking Williams' chances in 2024, I've still got him ranked below my ninth-round choice. I've also got Zack Moss ranked below this guy. Someone has to explain this Ezekiel Elliott ADP to me.

Elliott returns to the Cowboys -- one of numberFire's top-ranked schedule-adjusted offenses a year ago -- after a season with the Patriots which, at the end, showed he still had a little bit of juice left in the tank. The aforementioned injury to Rhamondre Stevenson led to an 86.8% snap rate for Zeke in the final five weeks of the season where he handled 27.8 adjusted opportunities per game.

That could be a similar role that the 'Boys need this season. Only Rico Dowdle and Deuce Vaughn sit behind Elliott on the depth chart, and we know that Zeke will absolutely get fed around the goal line in Big D. Even in a lackluster 2022 season splitting work with Tony Pollard, Dallas' 2016 first-round pick posted 12 rushing touchdowns and had a 54.5% red zone rushing share.

Dak Prescott, CeeDee Lamb, and company posted a top-10 season in overall offense last year despite being nF's 20th-ranked rushing offense. If healthy, the only scenario I see holding Elliott back from double-digit touchdowns would be a midseason trade for a better running back.

As mentioned in my full player preview for Zeke, I'm scooping him up constantly in this area of the draft.

Round 10

Jerome Ford, Cleveland Browns (122.0 ADP)

When healthy, Nick Chubb is one of the best running backs in football. It's just possible that qualifier will never describe him in 2024.

Chubb "still has a little way to go" on his rehab from a second November 2023 surgery on his knee injury, so I'm not even sure he's a lock to play Week 1 at this stage. With that the case, Jerome Ford could shine in his stead.

Ford spent most of 2023 navigating Kareem Hunt's frustrating role -- especially in the red zone -- to post fantasy points. Some might quibble with Ford's poor efficiency last season (-0.14 RYOE/c), but he did significantly outperform Hunt (-0.78), a current free agent, in that regard. Catching the ball, Ford posted 3.3 receiving yards over expectation per game, so he can handle passing downs.

The Browns also had five different quarterbacks and five different starting tackles last season. It's kind of absurd I'm talking about a playoff team with that the case. If injury luck sides with Kevin Stefanski's club in 2024, we could see a significant improvement.

Even if perpetual weirdness remains in the form of Deshaun Watson, and it's Jameis Winston under center, this loaded corps of weapons also comes with PFF's fourth-ranked offensive line. They'll move the ball, and Ford could be a huge piece of their offense if Chubb never returns to his old self.

Round 11

J.K. Dobbins, Los Angeles Chargers (147.7 ADP)

Leagues could very well be decided in the L.A. Chargers' backfield this season.

We know new head coach Jim Harbaugh wants to run the ball. He had a 59.6% rush rate with the Michigan Wolverines last year (17th of 133 FBS schools), and he drafted a left tackle who was justified as an offensive weapon. Harbaugh also hired former Ravens OC Greg Roman as the offensive coordinator.

Roman brought a pair of former Baltimore rushers, Gus Edwards (115.3 ADP) and J.K. Dobbins, with him. The team also drafted Kimani Vidal (162.7 ADP) in the sixth round. We have no idea how the split between these three ends up working out amidst live action.

Here's what I do know, though. When healthy in 2020, 2022 and 2023, Dobbins worked ahead of Edwards in Roman's offense. Believe it or not, the former Ohio State Buckeyes star is only 25, and he believes he's ready to go in a prove-it-or-lose-it year with Bolts.

I see the strongest argument for Dobbins within the passing game. Edwards had just 12 total receptions last year and has barely worked in that realm in college or as a pro. Vidal, for all his strengths, had just a 5.6% target share for a Troy Trojans team not flush with NFL weapons last year. At worst, Dobbins posted 2.8 receiving yards over expectation per game in 2022 and isn't horrible at it.

I believe he's comfortably in that third-down role for L.A. while mixing in with the others for carries to start, and if health is on his side in 2024, I could easily see him taking on a similar role to his 2020 campaign with the Ravens. That's a steal here.

Round 12

Chuba Hubbard, Carolina Panthers (153.7 ADP)

Remember all of those late Adrian Peterson seasons where he managed to work himself into unexpected fantasy football relevance? Chuba Hubbard might be trying to do his best impression.

Hubbard has tumbled into the undrafted pool with the expectation that rookie Jonathan Brooks (91.7 ADP) will assume a three-down role in this offense when ready. However, that "when ready" is holding the weight of the world when Brooks tore his ACL in November.

I get the love when Carolina invested second-round draft capital into Brooks. They'd ideally want him to play a heavy role, but as mentioned with Javonte Williams, effectiveness can be a bit of a challenge the season following a severe knee injury.

Brooks is still on the PUP list, so his "full effectiveness" could be months away. Until then, Hubbard had a 72.6% snap share in the final six weeks of 2023 around this same cast of characters.

In a Panthers offense we expect to dramatically improve as former top pick Bryce Young is now surrounded by the architect of Baker Mayfield's resurgence (Dave Canales) and a new pair of top wideouts (Diontae Johnson and Xavier Legette), Hubbard was sneaky good last year. He posted 0.19 RYOE/c in a lost season.

His potential fast start could provide the opportunity for a "sell-high" trade even if his late-season projection isn't great.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.