Olympic Basketball: Best Bets for Saturday 7/27/24

Basketball at the Paris Olympics tips off Saturday with men's group openers. Women's group play starts on Sunday.

The men's competition features 12 teams split into three different four-team groups. The teams placed first and second in each group (along with the two best third-placed teams) will qualify for the quarterfinals.

Olympic Basketball Best Bets

Spain vs. Australia

Patty Mills Over 16.5 Points (-115)

Spain and Australia open up group stage action with tip-off scheduled for 5 am ET.

At the 2021 Tokyo Olympics, Australia won the bronze medal, going 5-1 across six total games. Their only loss came in the semifinal against the United States.

Guard Patty Mills was a big part of that. He led the team with 23.3 points per game, averaging 19.3 field goal attempts (9.3 three-point attempts) per game. He scored at least 18 points in four of six games.

That was the third Olympics in a row Mills exceeded 20 points per game. He previously averaged 20.2 in the 2012 London games and 20.5 at the 2016 Rio de Janeiro Olympics.

This Spain-Australia matchup has the second-lowest over/under (166.5) of the opening round, although Australia averaged the third-most points (90.2) in the Tokyo games.

Spain ranked only fifth among 12 teams in points allowed (84.5) at the Tokyo games, so I like Patty Mills to go over 16.5 points. That was a total he exceeded in four of six games back in 2021.

Brazil vs. France

France -9.5 (-108)

Brazil and France face off at 11:15 am ET on Saturday.

France is a 9.5-point favorite -- a spread I like them to cover.

France has the third-shortest odds to medal this Olympics, and they're currently ranked ninth in the world according to FIBA. Brazil is only three spots behind them at No. 12, but FIBA world rankings use weighted average rating points to rank their teams.

The difference in points between France (737.1 points) and Brazil (660.4) is greater than the difference between France and the first-ranked United States.

France has five NBA players on their roster: Victor Wembanyama, Rudy Gobert, Nicolas Batum, Evan Fournier, and Bilal Coulibaly.

Brazil has just one in Gui Santos.

France is also coming off a Tokyo Olympics that saw them beat the United States in the opening round before losing a rematch with the US in the gold medal game. Two of their three group stage games were decided by double digits.

They allowed the fewest points per game (78.5) in the 2020 games and didn't give up more than 80 points until the semifinals.

That explains why Brazil has the lowest implied total (74.5) of the opening round.

Brazil didn't qualify for the 2020 games, and they finished in ninth place at the 2016 Rio games.

They did go 3-2 at the 2023 FIBA World Cup, but they lost by 18 to Spain and 20 to Latvia -- the only two top-25 FIBA teams they played there.

Without real NBA talent and with their tallest player standing at just 6-foot-9, I don't see Brazil keeping things respectable here.

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