Oilers vs. Stars: Betting Picks and Prediction for Game 1

Nicholas Vazquez
Nicholas Vazquez@nickvaz
Oilers vs. Stars: Betting Picks and Prediction for Game 1

The Edmonton Oilers will face the Dallas Stars in the Western Conference Final, which begins tonight. These are the last two teams to lose at this stage over the last two seasons, so they both should be hungry to make it past this round.

Let's dive into the best bet for tonight.

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All NHL betting odds and totals are from the NHL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook. All advanced statistics are used from MoneyPuck.com and NaturalStatTrick.com.

Edmonton Oilers at Dallas Stars Game 1

Stars Moneyline (-126)

The Stars made it past two tough tests in their first two series. They beat the last two Stanley Cup champions, the Vegas Golden Knights and the Colorado Avalanche. Their performance was seriously impressive in those two rounds.

In 13 games, Dallas had an expected goal (xG) percentage of 55.47% at five-on-five. That is the best mark in the playoffs, which is even better considering the tough opposition they've faced. Edmonton has not been particularly strong at this in the postseason, coming in at just 50.92%.

The Oilers are coming off a seven-game series that just finished on Monday, giving them a rest disadvantage heading into tonight's game. They were expected to move past the Vancouver Canucks with relative ease, but they struggled and made the series longer than anticipated. Edmonton will also have a significant goaltender disadvantage in this series.

Dallas will have Jake Oettinger in net after he missed practice yesterday. Oettinger was good through the first two rounds, saving .375 goals above expected per 60 minutes. Meanwhile, Stuart Skinner has been the second-worst goalie by this metric in the playoffs, allowing 2.2 goals above expected.

Edmonton has generated only 2.41 xG per 60 minutes at five-on-five in the playoffs, which ranks ninth. That will be a difficult matchup for them against the Stars, who have allowed the second-fewest xG per 60 at full strength.

Keeping Edmonton off of the power play will be key for the Stars. Edmonton has the best power play in the playoffs, and Dallas has just a 69.2% success rate on the penalty kill.

I see the Stars winning this game, and these odds at -126 are not too much of a price to lay on them in this spot.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.