Oaklawn Park Picks for Southwest Stakes Day 2/6/26

Key Takeaways

• Southwest Stakes Day at Oaklawn delivers a deep 12-race Friday card, highlighted by two 20-point Derby and Oaks preps and several competitive restricted stakes that create strong Oaklawn Park picks opportunities throughout.
• Several races project with soft or moderate early pace, increasing the importance of tactical positioning and riders willing to seize the initiative rather than wait for things to unfold.
• In the Martha Washington, Counting Stars looks like a legitimate Oaks prospect after dominating locally at a mile, while Maximum Offer offers upside and value stretching out second off the layoff.
• The General MacArthur Overnight could turn into a jockey’s race, with American Law owning a potential pace edge at a big price and Energize bringing proven dirt form and a stalking style that fits the setup.
• The Bugler Overnight sets up well for proven Oaklawn sprinters, with Hush It Honey offering course-and-distance appeal at a price and Foie Gras arriving in sharp form for her new barn.

The Kentucky Derby trail gets going again at Oaklawn Park on Friday, February 6, with the Southwest Stakes, but that’s not all that’s going on that day in Hot Springs. In addition to the 20-point Kentucky Derby prep, which was rescheduled after winter storms in Arkansas last weekend, Friday’s action features a full day of horse racing.

In addition to the Southwest, there are 11 more races, including three more stakes. The Martha Washington, for three-year-old fillies, is a 20-point prep for the Kentucky Oaks. There are also stakes for older horses who have never won an open stakes before: the General MacArthur Overnight for older routers, as well as the Bugler Overnight for filly and mare sprinters. The first race of the 12-race card gets underway at 11:30 a.m. Central Standard Time. You can watch it all on FanDuel TV and bet every race at FanDuel!

Don’t forget to check the program and the scratches before placing your bets on race day. Friday is supposed to be warm and sunny in Arkansas, but weather conditions can change, and scratches can happen for any reason. They can affect the pace and class balance, so it pays to check before you bet and update your handicapping accordingly.

Oaklawn Park Picks

These are free Oaklawn Park tips for races on Friday’s Southwest Stakes card.

Race 6: Martha Washington Stakes, 1 1/16 miles on the dirt - Counting Stars, Maximum Offer

FanDuel odds: 5-2 and 10-1

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Counting Stars (5-2) did well at one turn, breaking her maiden at 6 ½ furlongs and winning a restricted stakes at Oaklawn going six. However, she bounced into even better form when trying two turns at Oaklawn in the Year’s End, a one-mile stakes on December 27. After tracking the early going, she left everyone else in the dust, winning by six lengths. Now this Mark Casse trainee stretches out an extra half-furlong, something that suits her pedigree dandily. High-percentage rider Francisco Arrieta stays in the saddle, another positive. She should be hard to keep pace with in the lane once again, and has every chance to look like a major Oaks prospect coming out of this.

Maximum Offer (10-1) wasn’t flashy when she broke her maiden January 4 at Oaklawn: she stalked the pace, dueled, and held by a neck. But, she did take a nice step forward from her two-year-old form, both in terms of speed and straight-up grittiness. The Kenny McPeek trainee, a daughter of Maxfield, has every right to improve second start off a freshening and should also take well to the extra half furlong of this trip. Regular rider Emmanuel Esquivel stays in the irons, and he has been doing well riding for the McPeek barn. In a field that looks pretty closely matched behind top pick Counting Stars, she has the best balance of potential and price to use in exotics, or even as a long shot attempt in a contest.

Race 8: General MacArthur Overnight Stakes, 1 ⅛ miles on the dirt - American Law, Energize

FanDuel odds: 20-1 and 8-1

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This race has very little in the way of early speed, so it may end up a jockey’s race—whoever takes the initiative has a good chance to have a full tank remaining when the real running begins. From a betting perspective, if a horse can do that at a huge price, all the better. Hence, American Law (20-1) is worth a long look. Drawn at the fence in a large field, American Law may have his hand forced, but that’s not a bad thing here. He has plenty of experience from inside draws, jockey Ramon Vazquez does well with forwardly placed horses, and American Law often finds good form at Oaklawn. Class is the question, as this horse is a fixture in starters and high-priced claimers. However, he comes off a local win, making this a “strike while the iron is hot” kind of situation—and the pace advantage could help him produce one of his better efforts, something that would make him a contender in this restricted stakes.

Energize (8-1), in the hands of aggressive rider Luis Saez, also has a chance to get a good trip. Though he isn’t the kind of horse who guns to the lead, he is never that far back early in his best efforts. Toss his last—yes, it was a decent enough third-place finish, but it was not as good as his other recent races. It was also his only start so far over an all-weather surface. His last few dirt starts, including a first-level allowance score at 1 ⅛ miles at Churchill Downs under Saez, have been better. It’s the perfect level for him, he can stalk and pounce into a modest pace as he showed two back, and he shapes as a major contender at an appealing middle price.

Race 10: Bugler Overnight Stakes, six furlongs on the dirt - Hush It Honey, Foie Gras

FanDuel odds: 10-1 and 3-1

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Hush It Honey (10-1) loves six furlongs at Oaklawn. It’s not her only game—in fact, she comes into this race off of a victory going seven furlongs in a second-level allowance at Churchill Downs, but it’s her most proven game. Much of her local form has come with jockey Rafael Bejarano around, as well; he returns today, and he has been running hot with the handful of mounts he has gotten with the Randy Morse barn. The layoff is the question, since she hasn’t raced since that race in November. But, it’s her favorite course and distance, she has strong tactical versatility, and she has won at this restricted-stakes level at Oaklawn before. All this adds up to a horse with upside at a price.

Foie Gras (3-1) is going the right way. It took her a while to clear her first-level allowance condition last year, but she finally got over that hump in November at Churchill, sprinting six furlongs. She moved to the Mike Maker barn after going through the auction ring last December, and then made the purchase look smart immediately when she won a restricted stakes at Oaklawn—again, over six furlongs—on December 28. She returns to a similar level and distance for this outing. She drew a nice middle gate, and she should be able to get a nice trip under Flavien Prat from a few lengths off the lead. All in all, this 4-year-old daughter of Violence appears to be coming into herself, and it would be no surprise if she keeps the hot streak going.

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