Oaklawn Park Picks for Rebel Stakes Day, 3/1/26

Key Takeaways

• Rebel Stakes Day at Oaklawn sets up as a stamina-and-trip-driven horse racing card, where pace management and distance aptitude should separate contenders from pretenders.
• With multiple long-distance and pace-sensitive races, solid Oaklawn Park Picks should emerge among horses capable of stalking, relaxing, and finishing strongly through the lane.
• Batten Down brings classic distance pedigree, tactical speed, and favorable pace positioning as the most reliable option in the Pig Trail.
• Ninja Warrior profiles as the ideal midpack stalker in the ratings handicap, thriving at Oaklawn and entering in sharp current form.
• Counting Stars offers prime rebound value in the Honeybee, poised to bounce back with a pace setup and form pattern that point to a major forward move.

The Oaklawn Park spur of the Kentucky Derby trail continues Sunday, March 1, with the Grade 2 Rebel Stakes, a million-dollar race that virtually guarantees its winner a spot in the Kentucky Derby. However, that’s not the only horse racing action on tap for Sunday in Hot Springs, Arkansas.

The Sunday card, which gets underway at noon Central Standard Time, features three stakes races. Aside from the Rebel, there is also the Honeybee (G3), a Kentucky Oaks prep that offers its winner 50 points toward a spot in the Churchill Downs starting gate. Older dirt routers also shine in the Pig Trail Overnight, a demanding 1 ½-mile run around the course.

You can get the latest news on the contenders and watch every race on FanDuel TV. And, you can get past performances and bet on every race online at FanDuel. Weather conditions are supposed to be dry and clear on Sunday, but there is always a chance it can change, and scratches can happen for any reason. So, make sure to check the scratch board before placing your bets on Sunday.

Oaklawn Park Picks

These are Oaklawn Park race picks for Sunday’s Rebel Stakes card:

Race 5: Pig Trail Overnight Stakes, 1 ½ miles on the dirt - Batten Down, Otello

FanDuel odds: 7-5 and 15-1

Bet Now at FanDuel

None of these horses has gone 1 ½ miles yet, though there are several in the field who have stretched out to 1 3/16 miles or 1 ¼ miles with some level of success, making them appealing top picks on the stretch out. Though, the fact that morning-line favorite Catching Freedom has not won a race in his last nine starts across almost two years makes him suspect at a short price—leave him for the underneath rungs, and take a stand against him on top.

It has been since September 2024 that Batten Down (7-5) has won a race, but he has started just four times since then, with some long layoffs. To his credit, he was third in his most recent start in an allowance at Gulfstream on January 16 and has made a comparatively quick return for Bill Mott, suggesting this blueblood is ready to run a real campaign again. His most recent win came the last time he raced 1 3/16 miles, and he has a maiden victory at 1 ¼. It’s no surprise he does better with a lot of distance—he’s a full brother to Tacitus, after all—and he could get a clean frontrunning trip from the outside gate.

Otello (15-1) wired a 1 1/16-mile allowance in the slop at Oaklawn Park last out, but he has back form over longer distances as well, including a forwardly-placed score in a 1 3/16-mile allowance at Aqueduct last year and a close second going 1 ⅛ miles at Laurel. 1 ½ miles will be a new challenge for this Wayne Potts trainee, but being by Curlin out of the classy turf route mare Isabella Sings, he has a chance to handle it. And, though his best bet may be to just set the pace from this inside post, he has enough good efforts from just off the pace to put him in the frame at a price, even if he does not make the top.

Race 6: Ratings handicap (75-85), six furlongs on the dirt - Ninja Warrior, Devil’s Tower

FanDuel odds: 8-1 and 15-1

Bet Now at FanDuel

Ratings handicaps are common in Europe, but a new addition to the American racing scene. In recent months, Equibase began releasing ratings for active racehorses. This season, Oaklawn Park became the first track to start using them as a basis for races, so instead of sorting horses by allowance conditions or claiming prices, the race is open to horses with ratings between 75 and 85, with lighter weights assigned to lower-rated horses. The race drew a field of 10, and with the morning-line favorite being Run Classic—a horse with a spate of second-itis coming off a long layoff—it’s an excellent betting race.

Ninja Warrior (8-1) won a slightly lower ratings handicap last time, open to horses rated 70-80, over this same course and distance on February 13. He rallied from midfield to get up by a neck under jockey Ramon Vazquez, who returns to the saddle for this. With a handful of speed horses in this race, his ability to work a stalking to midpack style will be an asset in this spot. The fact that he is an Oaklawn horse-for-course helps, too: six of his seven career wins have come in Hot Springs.

Another Oaklawn maven who should be an even bigger price is Devil’s Tower (15-1). He will need to take a step up from his last starts, but third off the lay, he should be warmed up and ready to make that forward move. He is versatile enough to make the pace, close, or come from anywhere in between, giving underrated jockey Francisco Arrieta options for working out a trip. Given the presence of several speed horses, something tracking to midpack appears like the right spot. The stretch back out from five furlongs last out to six furlongs this time should help, too.

Race 9: Honeybee Stakes (G3), 1 1/16 miles on the dirt - Counting Stars, Taken By the Wind

FanDuel odds: 15-1 and 5-2

Bet Now at FanDuel

Practically speaking, a ticket to the Kentucky Oaks is on the line in the Honeybee, with 50 points available to the winner of this 10-horse race. And, with a Bob Baffert shipper who is talented but has been facing a perhaps suspect group of West Coast horses, there are several contenders in this field who should be nicely-priced alternatives when it comes to money.

Counting Stars (15-1) was eased as the favorite in the Martha Washington on February 6, racing in range early but backing all the way out of it. However, she has come back with a sharp work in the time since. If she bounces back to the form she showed when winning the Year’s End two back, she should be a serious contender, especially since she has a really nice track-and-pounce style. She is the second-stringer from the Casse barn behind stablemate Search Party—and though Search Party isn’t outclassed by any means, from a betting perspective, Casse has a flat-bet profit on next-out beaten favorites over the last three years. And, in general, if everything else about a horse looks live? Horses coming back from a one-off example of being eased or not finishing can often be overlays, and that looks to be the case with Counting Stars.

Taken By the Wind (5-2) is perfect in three starts, including two stakes races, and would certainly be the favorite if not for the Baffert invader. She set the pace and held on by a neck in the Silverbulletday last out, but showed in both of her starts as a juvenile that she can come running from a couple of lengths off the pace, meaning jockey Brian Hernandez has options with this Kenny McPeek trainee. She will have to take a step up from her last race, but this is McPeek we’re talking about—his horses usually aren’t fully cranked first off the lay, and they tend to take a nice step forward with that race underneath them. If that’s the case for Taken By the Wind, it would be no surprise to see her record remain unblemished.

New to FanDuel Racing? Place your first bet up to $500 on any race at any track and get it back in Racing Bonus if it doesn’t win! Valid in participating states. See here for full terms and conditions. Learn about today’s other offers at FanDuel Racing Promos.

Looking for more horse racing betting opportunities? Head over to FanDuel Racing to see all of today’s horse racing odds.

Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook and FanDuel Daily Fantasy today!