Nuggets vs. Thunder Western Semifinals Prediction, Odds, Picks, Best Bets for May 9

Nuggets vs. Thunder Game Info

• Date: Friday, May 9, 2025
• Time: 10 p.m. ET
• Venue: Ball Arena -- Denver, Colorado
• Coverage: ESPN

The Oklahoma City Thunder are 4.5-point favorites in Game 3 of the second round of the NBA Playoffs against the Denver Nuggets at Ball Arena on Friday, beginning at 10 p.m. ET on ESPN. The series is tied 1-1. The matchup has an over/under set at 234.5 points.

Nuggets vs. Thunder Odds & Spread

All NBA betting lines, odds and prop bets are from FanDuel Sportsbook.

Nuggets vs. Thunder Prediction & Pick

All NBA win probability predictions and picks are according to numberFire.
Prediction: Thunder win (51.8%)

Nuggets vs. Thunder Betting Trends

• The Thunder are 54-26-2 against the spread this season.
• The Nuggets have 38 wins against the spread in 82 games this season.
• Thunder games have finished with a final combined score above the over/under 44 times this season.
• Nuggets games this season have gone over the point total 59.8% of the time (49 out of 82 games with a set point total).
• Oklahoma City has done a better job covering the spread in home games (29-12-1) than it has in road affairs (25-14-1).
• In terms of over/unders, the Thunder hit the over more consistently in home games, as they've eclipsed the total 25 times in 42 opportunities this season (59.5%). In away games, they have hit the over 19 times in 40 opportunities (47.5%).
• Denver has been better against the spread away (20-20-1) than at home (18-23-0) this season.
• Nuggets games have finished above the over/under more often at home (26 times out of 41) than on the road (23 of 41) this season.

Thunder Leaders

• Shai Gilgeous-Alexander averages 32.7 points, 5 boards and 6.4 assists, shooting 51.9% from the field and 37.5% from downtown, with 2.1 made 3-pointers per game.
• Jalen Williams' numbers on the season are 21.6 points, 5.3 boards and 5.1 assists per game, shooting 48.4% from the field and 36.5% from downtown, with an average of 1.8 made treys.
• Isaiah Hartenstein averages 11.2 points, 10.7 boards and 3.8 assists, shooting 58.1% from the floor.
• Aaron Wiggins is averaging 12 points, 3.9 rebounds and 1.8 assists.
• Luguentz Dort is averaging 10.1 points, 4.1 rebounds and 1.6 assists. Defensively, he averages 1.1 steals and 0.5 blocked shots.

Nuggets Leaders

• Nikola Jokic averages 29.6 points for the Nuggets, plus 12.7 rebounds and 10.2 assists.
• Per game, Jamal Murray gives the Nuggets 21.4 points, 3.9 rebounds and 6 assists. He also averages 1.4 steals and 0.5 blocks.
• Per game, Michael Porter Jr. gives the Nuggets 18.2 points, 7 rebounds and 2.1 assists, plus 0.6 steals and 0.5 blocks.
• Christian Braun's numbers on the season are 15.4 points, 5.2 boards and 2.6 assists per game. He is making 58% of his shots from the field (eighth in NBA) and 39.7% from 3-point range, with an average of 1.1 triples.
• Russell Westbrook averages 13.3 points, 4.9 rebounds and 6.1 assists. He is making 44.9% of his shots from the field and 32.3% from beyond the arc, with 1.3 triples per game.

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