NRFI Best Bets to Target on Friday 8/9/24

The MLB season is an annual marathon that gives us months of daily betting markets to consider.

While traditional player props like home runs and strikeouts remain popular options, one market that's gained steam is betting whether or not no runs will be scored in the first inning -- aka a No Run First Inning (NRFI) bet.

On FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB odds, we can find NRFI odds listed as 1st Inning Over/Under 0.5 Runs odds under each MLB game.

Where can we find value in this unique prop market today?

Please note: lines and projections are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

NRFI Best Bets Today

Los Angeles Angels at Washington Nationals

Under 1st Inning 0.5 Runs (-122)

These two offenses are at the bottom of the barrel when it comes to YRFIs, making this an ideal target for no first inning runs. The Los Angeles Angels are 26th in YRFI rate (21.9%) while the Washington Nationals are 30th (17.4%). No batter in this game has better than +400 odds to hit a home run, as well.

Left-hander Mitchell Parker will take the hill for Washington, and he's put up a solid 75.0% NRFI rate across his 20 starts. Although nothing about his profile leaps off the page, he does produce slightly better metrics the first time through the order with a 4.01 xFIP, 21.9% K rate, and 7.3% walk rate.

As the Angels' poor YRFI rate would suggest, they're below average in most offensive metrics in the first inning and come into this contest with just an 89 wRC+ in the opening frame.

Righty Jose Soriano has a good shot of shutting down the Nationals in the bottom of the inning. That's because he's produced encouraging splits versus lefties and projects to see five of them in the first six batting slots. Against left-handed hitters, Soriano is showing a 3.80 xFIP, 57.9% ground-ball rate, and 0.57 HR/9.

Washington doesn't have a ton of pop in its lineup and has recorded the league's second-worst ISO (.121) in the first inning.

Chicago Cubs at Chicago White Sox

Under 1st Inning 0.5 Runs (-130)

It's never a bad idea to attack the Chicago White Sox when it comes to NRFIs, who rank 29th in YRFI rate (18.8%), and that's even more the case when the Sox have their ace Garrett Crochet making a start.

Crochet has been lights out in 2024, recording a 2.71 SIERA, 33.9% strikeout rate, 6.3% walk rate, and 47.0% ground-ball rate. He's converted a NRFI in 20 of his 23 starts (87.0%) and owns a ridiculous 37.7% K rate the first time through the order and 41.2% in the first inning.

The Chicago Cubs are 23rd in YRFI rate (23.1%), and they're unlikely to improve that mark tonight.

The wind is blowing out in Chicago tonight, which might normally get Cubs starter Jameson Taillon in trouble, but there simply aren't a lot of tough outs in this White Sox lineup. Even Luis Robert isn't having a great campaign and has an ugly 45.9% K rate and .099 ISO since the All-Star break.

Taillon has been posting average overall metrics this season but sees a nice bump the first time through the order with a 3.54 xFIP, 24.6% strikeout rate, and 3.5% walk rate. He's managed a 73.7% NRFI rate over 19 starts and should add to that tally in this plus matchup.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.