What's J.K. Dobbins' Fantasy Football Outlook After a Big Week 1?

Predicting the top running back in expected split backfields is always one of the big offseason debates for fantasy football managers. The Los Angeles Chargers were one of the teams in that category. While J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards have had shaky fantasy production throughout their careers, one of them seemed likely to breakthrough under coach Jim Harbaugh, who deploys run-heavy attacks.

According to FantasyPros' average draft position (ADP), Edwards was RB38 and 114th overall while Dobbins was RB43 and 138th overall in half-point per reception (PPR) leagues. Following Week 1, Dobbins looks to be the tailback who will shine with the Bolts.

Let's look at the usage of each running back in Week 1 and what it means for the Chargers' backfield going forward.

J.K. Dobbins' Usage

Dobbins racked up one touchdown and 135 rushing yards on 10 carries (13.5 per carry) paired with three catches and three targets for four receiving yards. Following several major injuries since 2021 (a torn ACL and Achilles), Dobbins looked as explosive as ever, which included a 61-yard run. Check out this carry of 6.0 expected rushing yards that Dobbins ripped off for 46 yards.

As expected, these gaudy stats led to an excellent fantasy performance with Dobbins as half-PPR RB3 this week prior to Monday's game. His 21.4 fantasy points were his most since 28.0 in Week 17 in 2020, a season in which he finished as RB21. It was the second-best fantasy performance of his career; of course, we are excited about Dobbins following the season-opening weekend.

Despite, his 139 scrimmage yards to Edwards' 28 yards, the workload was still pretty even between the two backs. Dobbins was on the field for 33 snaps to Edwards' 24, and Gus had 11 carries and one target to Dobbins' 10 rushing attempts and three targets.

Cracking the top-five running backs in the first week of play certainly bodes tons of confidence for Dobbins' outlook, but this backfield could still be undecided considering the workload between the two backs.

How to Handle Dobbins and Gus Edwards Going Forward

Week 2 could be very telling for the remainder of the 2024 season. Will the Chargers adjust Dobbins' workload? He should see a few more rushing attempts considering the performance, and Dobbins already saw the field for almost 10 more snaps than Edwards.

With that said, I'd be very surprised if this moves to Dobbins being the clear-cut RB1 of the offense. He has injury history, which makes you nervous about a "workhorse" role. Plus, Edwards is still a quality back who recorded 0.26 rushing yards over expectation per carry a season ago, via NFL's Next Gen Stats. He also finished as half-PPR RB20 last season.

Harbaugh has a reputation of using split backfields following his time with the Michigan Wolverines. Edwards should still have a role in this offense.

However, Dobbins should certainly be considered the top option going forward. He had more snaps in Week 1, and his touches should go up following an outstanding performance. For PPR leagues, his value is even more exciting with Dobbins receiving three targets to Edwards' one.

And as many expected in the offseason, Los Angeles' run game is bound to be relevant following 27 rushing attempts in Week 1 -- the 12th-highest mark of the week prior to MNF.

Following an electric performance from Dobbins in his Chargers debut, fantasy managers who have the tailback rostered are sitting pretty. We will see just how high his ceiling is in the coming weeks, which is likely decided by the potential of increased usage. At a bare minimum, Dobbins is surely looking to easily surpass his RB43 ADP in the early going.

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