NRFI Best Bets to Target on Tuesday 8/6/24

The MLB season is an annual marathon that gives us months of daily betting markets to consider.

While traditional player props like home runs and strikeouts remain popular options, one market that's gained steam is betting whether or not no runs will be scored in the first inning -- aka a No Run First Inning (NRFI) bet.

On FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB odds, we can find NRFI odds listed as 1st Inning Over/Under 0.5 Runs odds under each MLB game.

Where can we find value in this unique prop market today?

Please note: lines and projections are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

NRFI Best Bets

Cincinnati Reds at Miami Marlins

Under 1st Inning 0.5 Runs (-132)

loanDepot park is among the league's harder venues to hit a home run, per Baseball Savant, and when we throw in a pair of solid pitchers taking the mound, there's a lot of NRFI potential here tonight.

Left-hander Nick Lodolo will start for the Cincinnati Reds, and while he'll be up against a righty-heavy Miami Marlins lineup, that shouldn't be a problem. When facing right-handed batters, Lodolo has posted a 3.85 xFIP, 24.0% strikeout rate, 5.8% walk rate, and 46.0% ground-ball rate.

Although the southpaw has had shaky results in the first inning overall (64.7% NRFI rate), he's logged a NRFI in 9 of his last 10 outings. Further, his underlying metrics has otherwise been fantastic in the opening frame with a 2.61 xFIP and 35.2% K rate.

This matchup against the Marlins shouldn't trouble Lodolo much, either. Miami is 21st in YRFI rate (23.0%), and after unloading players at the trade deadline, this clip figures to dip even more down the stretch. Their active roster owns just a 67 wRC+ versus left-handed pitching this year.

Righty Max Meyer is making just his sixth MLB start, but early returns have been encouraging for the 25-year-old with a 3.63 xFIP, 23.3% strikeout rate, and 5.8% walk rate.

Although home runs have been an issue thus far, he should be able to bring that down at least against lefties, as he owns a promising 60.0% ground-ball rate in the split. At the very least, it should help him keep the dangerous Elly De La Cruz from going yard, who's just +500 to hit a home run.

In fact, outside of De La Cruz, no other Reds batter has better than +630 home run odds. Cincinnati has been roughly average in YRFI rate (27.7%) while Meyer is 4-for-5 converting NRFIs.

Boston Red Sox at Kansas City Royals

Under 1st Inning 0.5 Runs (-111)

Perhaps it's a bit dicey to bet against two offenses that are inside the top 10 in YRFI rate, but the makeup of these lineups could favor tonight's starting pitchers.

Winds blowing in at 10 mph from left field could also help suppress the long ball, and we aren't seeing particularly short odds for dingers from either team. Rafael Devers is priced at +450, and Bobby Witt Jr. is at +560. No one else comes in below +600.

Brayan Bello has gone through an up-and-down campaign, but things have started to click since the beginning of July, as the righty has put together a 3.13 xFIP and 25.7% strikeout rate over his last six starts.

But the other reason to have optimism versus the Kansas City Royals is that Bello is much stronger in same-handed matchups, and he'll likely face just one lefty in the first five batting slots. Against righty sticks, he's put up a 2.99 xFIP, 25.1% K rate, 7.2% walk rate, 52.6% ground-ball rate, and 0.99 HR/9.

Kansas City will roll out Seth Lugo, and while his 2.57 ERA is probably due for a course correction, his 3.80 xFIP and 3.85 xERA are hardly poor marks.

In contrast to Bello, Lugo will have to contend with a lefty-heavy lineup, but the right-hander hasn't missed a beat versus that handedness this season, recording a 3.65 xFIP, 22.3% strikeout rate, 7.1% walk rate, and 0.48 HR/9.

Lugo has also been a NRFI machine in 2024, owning an 87.0% NRFI rate over 23 starts.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.