NRFI Best Bets to Target on Wednesday 7/31/24

The MLB season is an annual marathon that gives us months of daily betting markets to consider.

While traditional player props like home runs and strikeouts remain popular options, one market that's gained steam is betting whether or not no runs will be scored in the first inning -- aka a No Run First Inning (NRFI) bet.

On FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB odds, we can find NRFI odds listed as 1st Inning Over/Under 0.5 Runs odds under each MLB game.

Where can we find value in this unique prop market today?

Please note: lines and projections are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

NRFI Best Bets

Seattle Mariners at Boston Red Sox

Over 1st Inning 0.5 Runs (-113)

This matchup is tied for a slate-high 9.5 over/under, yet we're still getting appealing odds for a YRFI, making this a potential value to target. Fenway Park is not only the league's second-best hitter's park, per Baseball Savant, but we're also expecting double-digit mph winds blowing out in warm and humid conditions.

Right-hander Brayan Bello has been underwhelming for the Boston Red Sox, and while certain metrics suggest he's due for positive regression, there's no question that he's struggled versus left-handed batters. In that split, Bello has posted a 4.42 xFIP, 18.7% strikeout rate, and 8.7% walk rate while coughing up 1.84 HR/9.

That's bad news for him against a Seattle Mariners lineup that could have as many as three hitters batting lefty in the first four slots. One of them is switch-hitter Cal Raleigh, who has the game's second-shortest odds to hit a home run (+320) and has gone yard in three of his last four games. Bello has had shaky results in the first inning, too, owning just a 68.4% NRFI rate over 19 starts this season.

Boston's bats may have a tougher time getting to George Kirby, but they should counter the righty with four straight left-handed hitters to open the game. While Kirby is tough on lefties with a 27.2% strikeout rate, he does give up his share of dingers (1.30 HR/9) off a 48.4% fly-ball rate.

The Red Sox are sixth in YRFI rate (31.3%) this year, and cleanup hitter Rafael Devers is on a seven-game hit streak that includes five multi-hit games. Devers has the best odds to hit a home run in this matchup (+310), as well.

Colorado Rockies at Los Angeles Angels

Under 1st Inning 0.5 Runs (-111)

We don't exactly have the cream of the crop pitching in this one, but a pair of lackluster offenses should still help it result in a NRFI. No batter has shorter than +420 odds to hit a home run in this matchup.

Colorado Rockies hitters tend to perform much worse away from Coors Field, and this year is no exception. While the Rockies boast a 35.3% YRFI rate at home, that plummets to 21.1% on the road. They also own a league-worst 33.2% first-inning strikeout rate in away games.

Los Angeles Angels right-hander Davis Daniel is making just his fourth MLB start, and while his 5.82 ERA doesn't paint a pretty picture, his 4.35 xERA and 3.72 xFIP suggest he's endured some poor luck. He did log eight scoreless innings with eight punchouts against the Detroit Tigers in his season debut at the end of June, showing it hasn't been all bad for Daniel. Facing the road-tripping Rockies should help him get back on track.

The Halos will take on southpaw Kyle Freeland in the bottom half. Freeland is another pitcher with questionable 2024 credentials, but in his six starts since coming off the injured list, he's actually put up a 3.22 ERA, 3.73 xFIP, 22.3% strikeout rate, and 4.7% walk rate.

If he continues pitching like this, he should find some early success against the Angels. Los Angeles is tied for 22nd in YRFI rate (22.4%), and that lines up with them producing just the 20th-best wRC+ (91) in the first inning this year.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.