NRFI Best Bets to Target on Tuesday 7/30/24

The MLB season is an annual marathon that gives us months of daily betting markets to consider.

While traditional player props like home runs and strikeouts remain popular options, one market that's gained steam is betting whether or not no runs will be scored in the first inning -- aka a No Run First Inning (NRFI) bet.

On FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB odds, we can find NRFI odds listed as 1st Inning Over/Under 0.5 Runs odds under each MLB game.

Where can we find value in this unique prop market today?

Please note: lines and projections are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

NRFI Best Bets

Minnesota Twins at New York Mets

Over 1st Inning 0.5 Runs (-106)

The forecast is showing winds blowing out at 17 mph at Citi Field tonight alongside warm and humid conditions, which ought to give a boost to offense tonight.

Left-hander Sean Manaea will start for the New York Mets and projects to face an entire lineup of right-handed batters from the Minnesota Twins. Although Manaea has allowed just 0.85 HR/9 versus righties in 2024, he could be due for a course correction, as he has a modest 4.69 xFIP, 21.7% strikeout rate, and 46.2% fly-ball rate in the split. Add in that he's also issuing a 10.0% walk rate, and there are plenty of paths for the Twins to get on the board early.

Minnesota has a solid 28.6% YRFI rate, and we can circle Byron Buxton as someone who could cash this bet in a hurry. Buxton has hit second in each of his last three starts and has the game's shortest odds to hit a home run (+300).

The Mets are in the bottom-third in YRFI rate (22.6%) and have been even worse lately, but their matchup against David Festa is ideal to take advantage of the wind.

While Festa is coming off an encouraging relief appearance after getting called back up from Triple-A, he's still sitting on a 5.21 xERA across his first 14 1/3 MLB innings and has already allowed 5 homers off a 48.9% fly-ball rate.

Additionally, in the limited sample, the righty has posted just an 18.4% K rate versus lefties, which could get him in trouble straight away against the first two Mets batters, Francisco Lindor and Brandon Nimmo.

Washington Nationals at Arizona Diamondbacks

Under 1st Inning 0.5 Runs (-106)

At first glance, a game featuring Patrick Corbin and Ryne Nelson as the projected starters looks like an easy pass for a NRFI, but this might actually be a spot to target, particularly if you can find it at plus odds.

We'll begin with Nelson, who's the easier hurler to buy into versus the Washington Nationals. The Nats rank last in YRFI rate (16.8%), owning the fifth-worst wOBA (.283) and second-worst ISO (.118) in the first inning.

Outside of limiting both walks (5.6% BB rate) and dingers (0.92 HR/9) this year, Nelson comes in with uninspiring overall metrics. Yet he's actually been scored upon in the first inning just once over his 17 traditional starts.

That might seem flukey for a guy with a 4.41 xFIP and 16.4% strikeout rate, but when narrowed down to those first innings, he improves to a 3.92 xFIP and 21.0% strikeout rate. While these are hardly head-turning numbers, when combined with the lack of free passes and homers he's allowed, he should be able to keep the momentum going against a weak opponent.

Putting any faith in Corbin likely sends shivers down your spine, but he's another pitcher who's had more success in the first inning than you might think. He's managed a NRFI in 17 of his 21 starts, most notably giving up only two home runs in the opening frame.

Given that the southpaw's underlying metrics aren't dramatically different in the first inning, it's fair to be skeptical, but he's actually performed fairly well overall lately, too. Across his last eight starts, Corbin has put up a 3.88 ERA that's supported by a 3.64 xFIP, 22.3% strikeout rate, 6.4% walk rate, and 46.9% ground-ball rate.

The Arizona Diamondbacks have been formidable in the first inning, tied for the fourth-best YRFI rate (33.6%), but they aren't showing particularly great odds to hit a home run tonight. Ketel Marte has the shortest odds to hit a home run (+420), and there otherwise isn't anyone below even +470.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.