NRFI Best Bets to Target on Monday 7/22/24

The MLB season is an annual marathon that gives us months of daily betting markets to consider.

While traditional player props like home runs and strikeouts remain popular options, one market that's gained steam is betting whether or not no runs will be scored in the first inning -- aka a No Run First Inning (NRFI) bet.

On FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB odds, we can find NRFI odds listed as 1st Inning Over/Under 0.5 Runs odds under each MLB game.

Where can we find value in this unique prop market today?

Please note: lines and projections are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

NRFI Best Bets

St. Louis Cardinals at Pittsburgh Pirates

Under 1st Inning 0.5 Runs (-130)

The starting pitchers in this matchup might not have the flashiest numbers, but they've both performed well in the first inning this season, and these offenses aren't ones we need to shy away from.

Long home run odds are always a promising sign for a NRFI, and neither of these teams has a player with shorter than +560 odds to hit a home run.

Right-hander Mitch Keller will take the mound for the Pittsburgh Pirates, and he's logged a 78.9% NRFI rate over 19 starts and just had a 12-game NRFI streak broken in his last outing. While his 21.4% strikeout rate won't turn heads, Keller has still managed a solid 3.98 SIERA while limiting free passes (6.1% walk rate) and dingers (0.95 HR/9).

The St. Louis Cardinals rank just 25th in YRFI rate (21.2%), so we should like Keller's chances of starting up a new NRFI streak.

Righty Andre Pallante will be tasked at silencing Pittsburgh's bats, and he's logged a NRFI in seven of his eight starts and hasn't allowed a run in six straight first innings. Like Keller, Pallante doesn't get a ton of Ks (18.8% strikeout rate), but he makes up for it was an elite 59.6% ground-ball rate. He also hasn't given up many barrels (91st percentile in barrel rate), helping him to a 3.63 xERA.

Pallante is showing reverse splits, owning a lackluster 5.08 xFIP in same-handed matchups, but neither of the righties he's likely to see in the first inning (Andrew McCutchen and Nick Gonzales) are major power threats. The Pirates are right behind the Cardinals in YRFI rate at 26th (20.2%).

Cincinnati Reds at Atlanta Braves

Under 1st Inning 0.5 Runs (-136)

We have two of the slate's better pitchers going toe to toe in this one, giving us a clear path to a NRFI.

The Atlanta Braves have right-hander Reynaldo Lopez going today, and Lopez has been flawless in the first inning, converting a NRFI in 17 of 17 starts. Although it's easy to nitpick his 1.88 ERA this year when compared to his 3.79 xFIP, he's been lights out early in games, suggesting his first-inning success isn't a fluke. Lopez owns a 2.49 xFIP and 36.7% K rate in the first inning and has produced a 3.28 xFIP and 30.1% K rate the first time through the order.

Given all that, the righty should be able to handle a Cincinnati Reds that's put up the fourth-worst wRC+ (74) and third-worst strikeout rate (29.4%) in the first inning.

Hunter Greene will have to navigate a tougher Atlanta lineup, but he's also enjoyed plenty of first-inning success with an 84.2% NRFI rate across 19 starts. Outside of walks still being an issue for Greene (9.9% BB rate), it's hard to find too many issues with his 2024 profile. He's rocking a 27.6% strikeout rate and is above the 80th percentile in average exit velocity, hard-hit rate, and barrel rate, helping him to a pristine 3.09 xERA.

The Braves have an above-average YRFI rate (28.6%) and still have plenty of pop in their lineup, but they also have the 10th-highest strikeout rate (25.5%) in the first inning. Greene boasts a 32.7% K rate the first time through the order, increasing our confidence in a clean opening frame.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.