NHL

NHL Division Odds: Central Division Is a Two-Horse Race

Nicholas Vazquez
Nicholas Vazquez@nickvaz
NHL Division Odds: Central Division Is a Two-Horse Race

The NHL season is only about a month away, and the teams are taking shape.

We pretty much know what these teams will look like when they hit the ice in October. With that knowledge, we can start to form some opinions on who will perform well this season.

We'll look at the Central Division today, which features the team with the best odds to win the Stanley Cup.

Here are the four teams with the best odds to win the division, per the NHL division winner odds at FanDuel Sportsbook:

Team
Odds
Colorado Avalanche+140
Dallas Stars+220
Minnesota Wild+550
Winnipeg Jets+1000

Colorado Avalanche

The Colorado Avalanche have won this division for the past two campaigns. Last season, they had to overcome injuries and fell behind in the division but were able to still finish on top.

The disappointment happened in the playoffs when they lost in seven games to the Seattle Kraken. They had a lack of depth that hurt them in this series, but they've done a lot to address that this offseason.

Unfortunately, an injury to captain Gabriel Landeskog that kept him out all of last season will also cause him to miss this season. Arguably their two most important players -- Nathan MacKinnon and Cale Makar-- missed enough time to put their hopes for division in doubt. MacKinnon played 71 games and Makar just 60. They'll have a much easier path to the division title if their star players are healthier.

The additions of Tomas Tatar, Miles Wood, Jonathan Drouin, Ryan Johansen and Ross Colton will greatly improve the Avs' forward depth. At times last year, they struggled to get scoring from any line besides the Mackinnon-Mikko Rantanen line. That should be less of an issue this year.

A surprising element of the team last season was how good the goaltending was. It was a big question mark with two career backups tasked with splitting the duties. Alexandar Georgiev and Pavel Francouz both had good seasons, and the team finished with the sixth-best save percentage in the league.

The Avalanche are the favorites to win the Stanley Cup. They have loads of top-end talent and solid depth, and they play with a great structure. Barring something unforeseen, they are easily the best team in the Central.

Dallas Stars

Coming in right behind the Avalanche, the Dallas Stars are pretty clearly the second-best team in this division.

Dallas had a run to the Western Conference Finals last year that could have seen them play for the Stanley Cup if a few bounces went differently. They're keeping their core of mostly young players together, and we should expect them to be contenders again.

The trio of Roope Hintz, Jason Robertson and Joe Pavelski once again formed one of the best lines in hockey. This line scored 59 goals when playing together at five-on-five, the most in the NHL.

The Stars were also a very solid team defensively again. They were sixth in the league in expected goals (xG) against per 60 minutes at five-on-five.

When you pair that with the excellent goaltending from Jake Oettinger, you get a team that's very difficult to score against. Dallas allowed the third-fewest goals last season.

Dallas has seen the likes of Hintz, Robertson, Oettinger and Miro Heiskanen become one of the best young cores in the league. Players like Wyatt Johnston, Thomas Harley and Ty Dellandrea could represent the next wave of a core of young players, too. Johnston in particular had an excellent rookie season that went a bit under the radar last year.

Adding Matt Duchene on a cap-friendly contract was a shrewd move that helps a lot with forward depth. An issue over the past two seasons has been an overreliance on the first line, though this was much less of a problem last season.

The Stars can easily push the Avalanche for the division title if things go their way, so the +220 is quite enticing.

Minnesota Wild

The Minnesota Wild enter Year Four of the Dean Evason and Kirill Kaprizov era. It's seen them have some success in the regular season but not much in the playoffs.

Minnesota has had the reputation for being a boring, defensive team since their inception. They ranked ninth in xG against per 60 at five-on-five and sixth in goals against in 2022-23. They aren't completely boring, but scoring is still an issue.

The Wild were the lowest-scoring team in the playoffs last season. This was a major downgrade from the 2021-22 season, where they were the fifth-highest scoring team in the NHL. Part of this can be explained by Kaprizov missing 15 games, but an elite team can't have their scoring tank if one player is out.

A big hole in the lineup has been down the middle, as the centers do not produce enough points in today's NHL. Joel Eriksson Ek is a capable two-way center and Ryan Hartman had a great season in '21-22, but that's looking like an outlier season.

The Wild do have great wings outside of Kaprizov. Mats Zuccarello can still produce as a complimentary piece to Kaprizov on the top line. Matthew Boldy had a breakout year in his first full season, scoring 31 goals.

The defense doesn't have any name-brand players, but Jared Spurgeon remains one of the best defensive players in the game. The same can be said about Jonas Brodin, and these guys keep things steady on the blueline.

An area they can easily make an improvement is in goal. Filip Gustavsson was much better than Marc-Andre Fleury last season. Gustavsson saved 24.54 goals above expected compared to just 0.86 for MAF. Fleury played more games than Gustavsson, which should flip next season if Minnesota wants to maximize the time spent with their best goaltender in net.

Overall, the Wild are lacking the depth at center to compete with Dallas and Colorado. A playoff spot finishing third in the Central is definitely a possibility, though, as the bottom of this division has some pretty weak teams.

Winnipeg Jets

The Winnipeg Jets sort of surprised people last season by returning to the playoffs after a year's absence. Things seemed to be taking a turn for them, and the new coaching hire didn't inspire a lot of confidence.

When 67-year-old Rick Bowness didn't renew his contract with the Stars, people assumed that was his last job as an NHL head coach. But the Jets didn't get any of their targets, so Bowness was the guy.

Bowness did a great job at the start of the season, and the team was leading the Western Conference until January 25th. After that point, they went 15-16-2 and had the worst record of any playoff team in that time period. This made it no surprise that the Jets were easily pushed aside by the Vegas Golden Knights in five games in round one of the playoffs.

There have been rumors about the Winnipeg dressing room being a problem for a while, and it has resulted in some public trade requests. Pierre-Luc Dubois was the player who actually got his trade request granted, as he got shipped off to the Los Angeles Kings. The Jets brought back three players to play on their team this season, rather than targeting future assets.

The players acquired were Alex Iafallo, Gabriel Vilardi and Rasmus Kupari. The first two are wingers who can play as middle-six forwards, whereas Kupari is a bottom-six center. None of these players are as good as Dubois, but they do give the Jets a lot of forward depth.

The Jets could use the extra scoring, as they were 21st in goals. Blake Wheeler was bought out, meaning that they are now down two of last season's top-five scorers. The good news is they have an elite goalie, at least entering the season.

Connor Hellebuyck was close to his best in '22-23. He ranked fourth in goals saved above expected. However, he is heading into the last year of his contract and is rumored to be available for a trade. Moving Hellebuyck could make long-term sense, but a deal that improves their chances this season is highly unlikely.

If the Jets are closer to the team that finished the season rather than the one that got off to a great start, their chances to win this division are slim to none.


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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.