NFL Expert Best Bets, Predictions, and Player Props for Week 4

Each week throughout the NFL season, the staff here at FanDuel Research will bring you their three favorite bets on the board -- one side, one total, and one player prop from the NFL betting odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

They'll also share some insight into one of the picks to provide you with reasoning as to why they're on that bet.

Here's what our staff likes for this week.

Note: All odds come from the NFL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook. Betting lines and our NFL projections may change after this article is published.

NFL Expert Picks for Week 4

Austin Swaim

Spread/Moneyline: Falcons Moneyline (-120)

Total: Saints Over 15.5 Points (-132)

Though the Buffalo Bills’ offense can be a sledgehammer at any given moment, it’s time to give Kellen Moore’s improved New Orleans Saints offense some credit. They’re averaging 15.7 PPG, and it’s come against three of numberFire’s top-14 schedule-adjusted defenses. Now, they’ll face a Buffalo team that’s 22nd in schedule-adjusted D and has let up 23.7 PPG. Josh Allen might do Josh Allen stuff to even cover this lofty 15.5-point spread, but I’ve got faith in Spencer Rattler and company to move the ball as they've done in three games already.

Player Prop: Bucky Irving Over 90.5 Rushing Plus Receiving Yards (-114)

Austan Kas

Spread/Moneyline: Rams -3.5 (-108)

Total: Ravens-Chiefs Under 48.5 (-105)

Player Prop: Daniel Jones Over 22.5 Rushing Yards (-114)

Jones has run for at least 26 yards in two of three games, and the Rams have permitted the 10th-most rushing yards per game to quarterbacks (26.7). With the Colts a 3.5-point underdog, Jones may have to drop back more than he has so far this year, which could lead to scrambles. Our fantasy football projections have Jones running for 26.0 yards.

Kenyatta Storin

Spread/Moneyline: Lions -9.5 (-110)

Total: Saints-Bills Over 48.5 (-104)

We almost certainly need the Bills to do the heavy lifting here, but both teams rank in the bottom third in schedule-adjusted defense, and this projects to be one of the slate's fastest games in average pace. Further, while New Orleans quarterback Spencer Rattler has obviously had his struggles, our Brandon Gdula's expected touchdowns model projects that Rattler should have closer to seven TDs this season rather than four. numberFire's model is high on the over, as well, forecasting a 70.7% chance of it hitting.

Player Prop: Drake Maye Over 25.5 Rushing Yards (-114)

Aidan Cotter

Spread/Moneyline: Panthers +5.5 (-110)

Total: Bears-Raiders 1st Quarter Over 9.5 (-110)

I'm wary to back this matchup's full game over/under, but I do see value in the 1st Quarter over at 9.5 points. Chicago leads the league in 1st quarter scoring through three games, with Caleb Williams pacing the NFL in 1st quarter passer rating. Vegas, meanwhile, is middle-of-the-pack in 1st quarter scoring but has let up the fifth most 1st quarter points in football. In an indoor game with a high total as it is, all we need is a touchdown and a field goal to cash this over.

Player Prop: Brock Bowers 70+ Receiving Yards (+154)

Annie Nader

Spread/Moneyline: Bears Moneyline (-104)

Total: Eagles-Bucs Over 44.5 (-102)

Player Prop: Nico Collins 80+ Receiving Yards (+124)

Collins is netting an absurd 98.1 receiving yards across 15 games alongside C.J. Stroud at Houston's indoor home venue. This season, he's enjoying a 29.1% target share, 42.6% air yards share, and he reeled in 8 of 11 targets for 104 yards in Christian Kirk's first game back last week.

The opposing Tennessee Titans have coughed up the fourth-most yards and fifth-most yards per route run to wide receivers in the early going. In what is practically a must-win game for the 0-3 Houston Texans, I want plus-money exposure on Nico.

Riley Thomas

Spread/Moneyline: Vikings -2.5 (-114)

Total: Colts-Rams Over 49.5 (-112)

Player Prop: Quinshon Judkins Over 57.5 Rushing Yards (-114)

Efficiency has been Judkins’ middle name, racking up 2.01 rushing yards over expectation (RYOE) per rushing attempt. After enjoying a hefty workload of 18 rushing attempts for 94 rushing yards (5.2 yards per carry) last week, Judkins is the clear RB1 of the Cleveland Browns.

Our NFL DFS projections have Judkins reaching 17.6 carries and 79.1 rushing yards against the Detroit Lions. While the Browns are 9.5-point underdogs, I have confidence in this defense -- which is allowing the second-fewest yards per play (3.8) and lowest rush success rate. In a competitive game, Judkins should get his fair share of work, leading to an over.

Skyler Carlin

Spread/Moneyline: Lions -9.5 (-110)

Total: Chargers Over 24.5 Points (-115)

Player Prop: Quentin Johnston Over 51.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

In addition to the Chargers letting Justin Herbert cook with the highest pass rate over expected (+8.8%) entering Week 4, Johnston has achieved 71-plus receiving yards in each of his first three games this season, and he's capable of hitting this line in one or two catches. Across the first three weeks, the Giants' defense is 23rd in yards per route run (1.71), 32nd in downfield receptions (19), and 29th in downfield receiving yards allowed to WRs (377).

Jim Sannes

Spread/Moneyline: Buccaneers +3.5 (-115)

Total: Browns-Lions Over 44.5 (-110)

Player Prop: Christian Kirk Any Time Touchdown (+320)

Kirk came back to a nice role in his Houston Texans debut with a 22.0% target share. The Texans are back at home and indoors to face an easier opponent than what they've had to open the year, so I'm expecting a bit of a bounce back. Kirk could be a big part of that with how desperate they are for production behind Nico Collins.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.