NHL Betting Picks: Thursday 10/26/23

It's another packed day on the NHL schedule with an 11-game slate set for tonight.

Whether it's moneylines or total goals, there are plenty of ways to bet on the NHL action all season. It's a long 82-game campaign, meaning that the best selections of each night can be very different based on backup goalies coming into play, injuries that add up, and if teams are due for positive or negative swings.

Let's dive into the best bets for tonight.

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All NHL betting odds and totals are from the NHL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook. All advanced statistics are used from MoneyPuck.com, Evolving-Hockey.com, and NaturalStatTrick.com.

NHL Best Bets

San Jose Sharks at Tampa Bay Lightning

Lightning -1.5 (-126)

The Tampa Bay Lightning have been one of hockey's best teams for years now, and while they've had some early season struggles, they're starting to click.

The matchup with the San Jose Sharks is an ideal one for the Lightning. Tampa Bay's offense isn't the same high-octane force it's been in years past in the early season, but against the Sharks, they should be seen as one.

So far, the Lightning have a 55.51 Corsi For (Total Shot Attempts Created) per 60 minutes but are averaging 3.24 goals per 60 minutes -- the 12th best in the league. San Jose doesn't see even that much success on offense. They are second-to-last in both Corsi For per 60 minutes (51.29) and expected goals per 60 (2.39). The Sharks are also dead last on the scoreboard, scoring 1.32 goals per 60 minutes.

On the defensive side of the puck is where the openings will come for the Lightning.

The Sharks allow the most offense against them, leading in Corsi Against (Total Shot Attempts Allowed) per 60 minutes at a 74.14 clip. If there's any reason to believe in the Lightning tonight and their odds to win by two, it's due to San Jose's poor efforts on that end.

numberFire's model gives the Lightning a 57.56% likelihood of covering the spread tonight.

Toronto Maple Leafs at Dallas Stars

Under 6.5 Goals (-130)

In a battle of elite offense vs. elite defense, we'll side with the defense winning out -- at least in terms of the total.

The Toronto Maple Leafs have scored at least four goals in four of their first six games, including their last two, which have both been wins. They're top 10 in Corsi For per 60 minutes at 65.51 (7th) as well as GF/60 (3.58; 10th). The Dallas Stars are towards the bottom offensively but have managed to get it done, sitting at 4-0-1. With a 56.5 Corsi For per 60 minutes, they're ranked 22nd overall. This has led to just 2.88 goals for per 60 minutes, which is ahead of their 2.64 expected goals per 60.

Due to their scoring deficiencies, the backend has had to be elite -- and it has been. Dallas has a 61.3 Corsi Against per 60 minutes and are at the top of the league in terms of allowing goals, averaging 1.92 goals against per 60 minutes.

Despite Toronto's modest offensive showings, the biggest reason for taking the under is that two of the best goalies so far this season are between the pipes.

Through four starts, Jake Oettinger has impressed for the Stars with 6.33 goals saved above expectation (GSAx), ranking third in the NHL. For the Leafs, Joseph Woll has taken the starting job from Ilya Samsonov by posting a 4.96 GSAx clip in his own right -- placing as the sixth-best netminder despite just three starts.

Side with a low-scoring contest tonight despite the Maple Leafs' ever-present potential to put pucks in the net.

New York Rangers at Edmonton Oilers

Rangers -1.5 (+176)

The Edmonton Oilers are without Connor McDavid tonight and a bad defensive team. It sounds like a good night to bet the New York Rangers.

That bad defense of the Oilers has resulted in allowing 3.49 goals per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations, leaving them with the third-highest total in such situations. It is only worse in all situations, coming in with the second-highest total of goals against per 60 minutes (4.45). On the opposite side, the Rangers have been one of the best at limiting goals. They've allowed just 2.17 goals against (fifth-best) and are right around their expected rate of 2.68 goals against per 60 minutes (third-best).

The removal of McDavid from the offense pushes down the firepower of Edmonton, making this the best possible matchup for the Rangers tonight.

Goaltending isn't even close, either. Stuart Skinner is expected to be in the net for Edmonton. He's been at the bottom of the league with a forgettable -4.67 GSAx, the third-worst in the young 2023-24 campaign. The Rangers will have the luxury of one of hockey's best netminders being in the net as Igor Shesterkin is expected to suit up for his seventh start already. He's got a 1.38 GSAx and should be able to keep Edmonton out of the net -- unlike Skinner.

The plus money on this spread (+176) feels like a bet worth taking as the Oilers spin their wheels.

Looking for more NHL betting opportunities? Check out all of the NHL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.